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Facing the phenomenon of private sector balance sheet reduction

2024-08-16

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The private sector's balance sheet reduction has shown a more obvious trend.

The latest financial data released by the central bank highlights the pain of the transition from old to new economic drivers. In July, the increase in social financing was 770.8 billion yuan, lower than market expectations, and the RMB loans included in the social financing caliber decreased by 76.7 billion yuan.

This time, RMB loans under the social financing caliber showed negative growth, which was the first negative growth since July 2005, and decreased by 113.1 billion yuan year-on-year. If we look at the social financing data separately, the signals it conveys are more worthy of attention. The total amount and structure of new credit in July were weak, and the financing of non-financial enterprises and residents continued to shrink, especially the financing of non-financial enterprises, and the phenomenon of bill rush was obvious.

Specifically: In July, loans to the household sector decreased by 210 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year, of which short-term loans decreased by 215.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 82.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium- and long-term loans increased by 10 billion yuan, an increase of 77.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; loans to non-financial enterprises increased by 130 billion yuan, an increase of 107.8 billion yuan less than the same period last year, of which short-term loans decreased by 550 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and medium- and long-term loans increased by 130 billion yuan, an increase of 141.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year, and bill financing increased by 558.6 billion yuan, an increase of 198.9 billion yuan more than the same period last year.

These data warn that although there are certain seasonal factors in the poor data in July, the new scale of short-term loans for residents and enterprises is negative, indicating that the factors leading to the decline in credit due to insufficient demand may exceed seasonal factors. Residents' weak expectations for income and employment may have affected the consumption demand of residents at that time. The private sector, including enterprises and residents, has shown a strong desire to repair their balance sheets, especially corporate bill financing to replace short-term loans, indicating that the corporate sector has a strong desire to shrink its balance sheet.