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According to a poll of 2,867 voters from seven swing states released by the Cook Political Report on August 14 local time, in a one-on-one situation, in the seven swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads Republican presidential candidate Trump (47%) with an overall support rate of 48%.

Specifically, except for tying with Trump in Georgia (Harris 48%-Trump 48%) and slightly behind Trump in Nevada (Harris 45%-Trump 48%), Harris' support rate is ahead of Trump in the remaining five "swing states".

▲Harris

In the "swing states"

Harris' overall approval rating surpasses Trump's

According to the Cook Political Report's poll results in seven "swing states" in May, Trump led Biden by 3 percentage points in a one-on-one situation. In this August poll, the situation has reversed: Harris is ahead of Trump in a one-on-one situation.

At the same time, the latest poll results jointly conducted by The New York Times and Siena College in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan also showed that Harris's support rate in the above three "swing states" is 4 percentage points ahead of Trump (Harris 50%-Trump 46%).

Some analysts pointed out that these three states are crucial to whether the Democratic Party can win. Now it seems that the Democratic Party's position in these three states has been significantly strengthened. In the poll results in May, Biden and Trump were almost tied in Wisconsin and Michigan.

According to the latest data released by the Pew Research Center on the 14th, in addition to leading in "swing states", Harris's support rate nationwide is also slightly ahead of Trump, with a 46% to 45% advantage. After comparing and analyzing the voter structure, the think tank concluded that Harris' current support rate is 6 percentage points higher than Biden's support rate in July, and these voters who support the Democratic presidential candidate have expressed stronger support for Harris.

▲Kennedy Jr.

Now, in addition to those who originally supported Biden turning to Harris, the main reason for Harris's increase in support is that she won over those who previously supported neither Biden nor Trump, as well as those who supported or tended to support independent candidate Kennedy Jr.

Compared with the data in May, Trump's advantage in the "swing states" has been wiped out or even surpassed by Harris. In the poll data in May, Trump's overall support rate in these seven "swing states" was 3 percentage points ahead of then Democratic presidential candidate Biden (Trump 47%-Biden 44%).

"The US presidential election is supposed to be a marathon, but this year's election seems to have become a sprint." Poll expert Neil Newhouse analyzed that this year's situation is obviously more favorable to the new candidate (Harris). Analysts believe that only three weeks after the start of the campaign, Harris reversed the gap between Biden and Trump, but it is difficult to predict how long Harris's advantage can last.

It was also reported that officials from Kennedy's campaign said that Kennedy began seeking a meeting with Harris' team last week to seek a position if Harris won the election. The report said that Harris' team is not interested in this at present. Prior to this, Kennedy had contacted Trump, and the audio of their conversation was exposed on the Internet.

Harris is gaining momentum

But "campaigns are never static"

The report said that Trump and his team believed that voters' enthusiasm for the vice president would dissipate after they began to launch a fierce attack on Harris. According to Tyler Budovich, the leader of Trump's main super political action committee "MAGA", "The Democrats are changing their generals at the last minute, but we will shorten this honeymoon period."

On August 14, Trump arrived in North Carolina to deliver an "important economic speech". In this 75-minute speech, Trump did make some promises, such as ending inflation and improving the living standards of Americans. But during his speech, he also launched verbal attacks against Harris or Biden from time to time, "jumping back and forth between the speech and the attack on the person". In fact, the Republican Party hopes that Trump can focus his campaign on the economy instead of constantly attacking Harris or Biden.

▲Trump

However, whether it was the conversation with Musk or the speech in North Carolina, Trump seemed to be more concerned about "how to attack Harris and Biden". Some analysts believe that Trump's current strategy against Harris seems to be to constantly attack and belittle her image. However, this strategy will instead show Trump's temper and ferocity, and the gender- and racially discriminatory verbal attacks on Harris will also push some swing state voters, women and minority voters further away.

Some analysts pointed out that since officially becoming a presidential candidate, Harris has never publicly revealed her views on the world. In the early days of her tenure as vice president, Harris had lost her composure in her interactions with the media. As the campaign entered a critical period, her team certainly did not want her to take risks in front of the media. According to reports, the Trump team has been trying to stimulate Harris to make some unusual moves, but it seems that it may not have mastered the effective way to deal with sudden changes in the election situation.

After a historic July in American politics, the approval ratings of the Democratic and Republican parties fluctuated to a certain extent. It is reported that Trump is now facing a vibrant party.

However, there are still three months to the November election, and "campaigns are never static." The report said that although Harris is now gaining momentum, Trump is still a strong political opponent. At present, the Republican Party is quite united, and voters are pessimistic about the current economy, which are all factors in Trump's favor. Other analysts believe that given Trump's unpopular qualities, Harris only needs to do the opposite of Trump, that is, become younger and more optimistic, to win the election.

Red Star News reporter Li Jinrui compiled reference news (translated by Zhu Li)

Editor: Guo Zhuang, responsible editor: Feng Lingling