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"Main capital" plays a big trick! A-shares end the haze of land volume, how far is it from a reversal

2024-08-15

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Reporter of China Business Network: Wang Yandan Editor of China Business Network: Ye Feng

After three consecutive trading days with a turnover of less than 500 billion yuan, A-shares finally rebounded on August 15. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.94% to 2877.36 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.71% to 8370.12 points; and the ChiNext Index rose 0.53% to 1592.71 points.

The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 591.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of more than 110 billion yuan from yesterday.

AI glasses and online game concepts surged, the tourism sector strengthened in the afternoon, coal, engineering machinery, real estate, diversified finance and other sectors rose the most, while new stocks, green buildings, ST and other sectors fell the most. Overall, more stocks rose than fell, and more than 3,800 stocks rose in the market.

Does today’s rebound indicate that the land volume has already reached the land price?

A-shares made a big move as soon as they opened today. The largest CSI 300 ETF in the market saw a significant increase in trading volume in the early trading session, with a transaction amount of 1.61 billion yuan in the first half hour, while yesterday's full-day transaction amount was only 1.9 billion yuan.

The following picture is a screenshot taken at 10 a.m., from which we can see that large-cap stocks turned positive, driving the three major indexes to rise. By around 10:30, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index both rose by more than 1%.

But after 10:30, market sentiment gradually receded and the index began to pull back, which became more obvious after lunch. The figure below is a 15-minute K-line chart of the Shanghai Composite Index. It can be seen that in the first 15 minutes of trading from 9:30 to 9:45 today, the Shanghai Composite Index traded 42.9 billion yuan, which was the highest trading period of the day; but after the afternoon opening, from 13:15 to 14:30, for a period of 75 minutes, the trading amount in every 15 minutes was less than 10 billion, causing the index to fall. Fortunately, after 14:30, the funds returned, and the trading volume in the last two 15 minutes was enlarged to more than 10 billion, which also helped the Shanghai Composite Index close up nearly 1%.

It can be seen that the recent shrinking market volume is the main reason for the lack of upward momentum. At the same time, it shows that even with the demonstration effect of large funds, the lack of willingness of incremental funds from the OTC market to enter the market will still restrict the recent reversal process of A-shares.

However, overall, today's market still showed many optimistic signs. Not only did the three major indexes close in the green, but the total A-share transaction volume exceeded 500 billion yuan at 2 p.m., reversing the embarrassment of less than 500 billion yuan in three consecutive trading days.

Statistics show that the turnover rates of Shanghai and Shenzhen on the four important "land volume and land price" points in the past 20 years of A-shares were 0.649%, 0.667%, 0.395% and 0.557% on July 7, 2005, September 9, 2008, November 26, 2012 and September 17, 2018 respectively. The lowest transaction volume in this round was on August 13, 2024, with a total transaction volume of 477.3 billion yuan in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, corresponding to a turnover rate of 0.747%, which is close to the data of the above-mentioned "land volume and land price" points. Therefore, although the market transaction amount is sluggish, it may not be far from the final reversal.

Liquid cooling concepts, copper high-speed connectors, and AI glasses are gaining momentum

After reviewing today's overall market, let's take a quick look at today's hot spots.

Today, two major concept sectors strengthenedNvidiaThe first is the concept of liquid cooling. TrendForce's latest AI Server report points out that since Nvidia will launch the next-generation platform Blackwell by the end of 2024, it is estimated that there is a chance to drive the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions to 10%. Boosted by this,Sichuan Run SharesFollowing yesterday’s daily limit, the stock price once again hit the daily limit today;Qiangrui TechnologyScience and Technology Innovation SourceFeirongdaImikonGaolan SharesInvicWait for the price to rise.

Another sector is the concept of copper high-speed connectors. On the news front, a spokesperson for Hon Hai said that Hon Hai will start shipping servers equipped with Nvidia GB200 processors in the fourth quarter. Boosted by this,Kaiwang Technology20CM daily limit,Xianying Technology, Yihua Shares, Huafeng Technology, Chuangyi Tong, Shenyu Shares and others followed the rise.

The concept of AI glasses continues to be popular. Boshi Glasses rose by 20CM for three consecutive days, Zowee Technology and Guomai Culture rose by the daily limit, and O-Film, Wavelength Optoelectronics, and Netac Technology followed suit.

According to multiple media reports, the Apple team is continuing to test and develop a variety of smart glasses products, including the affordable version of Vision Pro, which is expected to be launched next year. At the same time, this year's domestic smart glasses have also entered a period of intensive new product releases: Huawei recently launched the Huawei Smart Glasses 2 square frame sunglasses; in mid-April, Xiaomi MIJIA smart audio glasses Yuexiang version was officially launched; at the same time, Rokid also officially released a new generation of AR Lite spatial computing kit.

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