Interpretation of July economic data: Consumption improved temporarily, and the decline in real estate sales narrowed
2024-08-15
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Gan Jupeng, reporter of Chao News Client
Image courtesy of Visual China
According to Xinhua News Agency, the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15 showed that in July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.1% year-on-year, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the total import and export of goods increased by 6.5% year-on-year. From January to July, the national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 3.6% year-on-year, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 27372.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% year-on-year, the retail sales of services increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the total import and export of goods increased by 6.2% year-on-year.
The overall economic operation was stable and made progress within stability. Production and demand continued to recover, employment and prices were generally stable, new drivers continued to be nurtured and strengthened, and high-quality development was steadily promoted.
"Consumption showed short-term improvement." Yang Chang, chief analyst of the policy group of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, said, "The total retail sales of consumer goods in July was 3.7757 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% (previous value increased by 2.0%), and the growth rate rebounded. From the monthly month-on-month growth rate, July rose by 0.35% (previous value decreased by 0.12%), showing short-term acceleration. In addition, the retail sales of goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year (previous value increased by 1.5%), and the growth rate increased."
In terms of production, the year-on-year growth rate fell. From the year-on-year data, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in July increased by 5.1% year-on-year (previous value 5.3%), down 0.2 percentage points.
"From the perspective of manufacturing PMI, my country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.4% in July, which is already below 50%, indicating that the demand for manufacturing is already relatively low." Yang Delun, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan Fund, said that the next step may be to adopt active fiscal policies to stimulate demand and drive industrial production to rebound.
In terms of investment, the growth rate in July also declined (the previous value was a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.9%), and the growth rates of private investment and non-private investment declined year-on-year; the decline in real estate investment widened, and manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment still need to be strengthened.
Real estate development investment has become the main factor dragging down the expansion of fixed asset investment.
In the first seven months of this year, the national real estate development investment was 608.77 billion yuan, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.2% (the previous value was a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and a decrease of 9.6% for the whole of last year).
"Judging from the sales data, the two indicators of national commercial housing sales area (-18.6% year-on-year) and national average commercial housing sales price (-6.9% year-on-year) have shown a narrowing trend for two consecutive months." Yan Yuejin, deputy director of the Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said that there are positive signals in the continuous adjustment of real estate, which means that the policies are positive and effective, and will also help further guide market expectations to develop in a positive direction.
Yan Yuejin said that judging from the recent sales data from various places, especially the sales data of 50 cities across the country, the monthly transaction data also showed a narrowing trend of year-on-year decline. And for key cities, the transaction data of 50 cities across the country is expected to turn from negative to positive in August, which shows that large cities have recovered first, and will subsequently drive the national market towards recovery.
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