Kishida announces his resignation! Who will be the next Prime Minister of Japan?
2024-08-15
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Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced on the 14th that he would withdraw from the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election to be held in September. In other words, Kishida will resign as prime minister after the new president is elected.
It was sudden but not unexpected. Experts pointed out that due to the "political black money" scandal and Japan's economic downturn, Kishida's approval rating continued to decline, and the Liberal Democratic Party urgently needs a new leader who is both popular and well-received to restore its image and win back the hearts of the people.
Who will become the new prime minister after Kishida steps down? Several candidates have surfaced...
The first step in innovation?
At around 11:30 a.m. local time on August 14, Fumio Kishida held a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office. He said that the Liberal Democratic Party will make "innovative changes" this fall.
"As a first step to show the public that the LDP has changed, I have decided not to run for president." Kishida said LDP lawmakers "should unite" under the leadership of the new president to restore public trust and tackle various challenges, such as taking measures to curb the declining birthrate and strengthening national defense capabilities.
Kishida said he would continue to serve as an ordinary member of the LDP and declined to comment on the best candidate for the next party leader and prime minister.
Picture caption: Kishida announced his withdrawal from the LDP presidential election on the 14th. Picture GJ
It is generally believed that the LDP's "political black money" scandal is one of the main reasons for Kishida's withdrawal from the election. According to CCTV News, in November 2023, several factions within the LDP issued sales targets for members of parliament, requiring them to sell political fundraising party vouchers. Funds exceeding the sales targets will be returned to the members of parliament, becoming unregulated secret funds. After the "black money scandal" was exposed, several factions of the LDP disbanded, and Kishida's cabinet support rate continued to be sluggish.
The latest poll by the Japan Broadcasting Association shows that the approval rating for the Kishida Cabinet is 25%, while the disapproval rating is 55%. Moreover, in the polls conducted by the organization, its approval rating has been below the dangerous 30% for 10 consecutive months. In addition, according to another poll released in late July, 70% of respondents do not want Kishida to be re-elected as prime minister.
Cai Liang, director and researcher of the Northeast Asia Research Center of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, described Kishida's recent political performance and support rate as "a bad play that drags on". The exposure of the scandal has caused the image of the Liberal Democratic Party to plummet, and the amendment to the Political Funds Control Law as a remedial measure has not been recognized by the public. Now, more and more party members have also called for Kishida to step down, especially former Prime Minister Taro Aso and Yoshihide Suga.
"In fact, after US President Biden withdrew from the election, people generally believed that Kishida would be the next one." Cai Liang pointed out that after the presidential election, the LDP will face the House of Representatives election and the Senate election next year. If Kishida, who has a low approval rating, is still in power, the public will think that the LDP has no determination to reform, which will affect the election results.
Who will be the next one?
With Fumio Kishida's withdrawal from the election, the selection of the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party and the prime minister of Japan has become the focus of attention.
Currently, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, current Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi, and Digital Minister Taro Kono have expressed their intention to run for the next president. In addition, former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi have also become popular candidates.
Among them, Shigeru Ishiba, who has run for the presidency of the Liberal Democratic Party four times, has been quite popular in recent polls. However, Cai Liang pointed out that Shigeru Ishiba lacks allies within the party, while Toshimitsu Motegi has low public support. "The new president must be recognized by the party and have the support of the public."
Caption: Shinjiro Koizumi GJ
Among the new faces, Shinjiro Koizumi, son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, is the most popular candidate. Born in 1981, Shinjiro Koizumi studied at Columbia University in the United States and worked as a researcher at the Institute for International Strategic Studies in the United States. He was elected to the House of Representatives in 2009 when he first ran for the seat.
In Cai Liang's view, Koizumi's advantage is his fresh image, and the LDP really needs someone to come out and revitalize its image. However, being young may also be Koizumi's disadvantage, and if he comes out too early, he may face losses.
"The current contradictions of the LDP are structural. In addition to the current poor domestic economic situation in Japan, it also has to face possible natural disasters such as major earthquakes. Coping with such a complex situation is a big challenge for Koizumi, who is in his early 40s." Cai Liang pointed out that LDP Vice President Taro Aso once said that the new prime minister must be someone who can deal with the US president in the future.
Xinmin Evening News reporter Wang Jiaye
