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With less than three months to go before the US election, the Ukrainian army, which had always been on the defensive strategically, suddenly launched a counterattack, with several brigades attacking the Russian mainland. This move forced Russia to urgently dispatch troops to plug the border gap, and Kursk Oblast declared a state of emergency.

Regarding this matter, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China stressed that China's position on the Ukrainian issue is consistent and clear, and called on all parties to abide by the "three principles" of cooling down the situation, namely, the battlefield does not spill over, the war does not escalate, and all parties do not add fuel to the fire. China will continue to maintain communication with the international community and play a constructive role in promoting a political solution to the crisis.

As the spokesperson said, after the cross-border attack, China has not changed its views on the Ukrainian issue and still emphasizes the need to resolve the crisis through political rather than military means. This fully demonstrates that between Russia and Ukraine, China neither favors Russia nor Ukraine, and all its efforts so far are aimed at ending the conflict as soon as possible.

According to a Reuters report on August 14, the incident has made new progress, and Zelensky publicly offered Russia conditions to end the attack. He said that day that the Ukrainian army has now captured 74 villages in Kursk Oblast, and the operation will continue. The Ukrainian side will exchange captured Russian prisoners of war. In addition, at the instruction of Zelensky, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs offered conditions, saying that Ukraine is not interested in the land of Kursk Oblast, and the sooner Russia agrees to resort to fair and peaceful means, the faster the Ukrainian army's raids on Russia will stop.

The conditions set by Zelensky are not difficult to understand. Combined with his previous statements, the bottom line for Ukraine to participate in peace talks is that the Russian army must at least withdraw from the four eastern Ukrainian states, and it would be best if Crimea and other places can be returned to Ukraine. Zelensky believes that this condition is fair, and if the Russian side agrees, Russia and Ukraine can hold peace talks. However, considering that the Russian army is currently stepping up its offensive in eastern Ukraine, this statement is actually emphasizing that the Ukrainian army cannot voluntarily withdraw from Kursk Oblast, because the Russian side will never agree to Ukraine's so-called "peaceful means". It is expected that the Ukrainian army's operations in the relevant areas will continue for a short time.

According to a news report from China News Service on August 13, the Russian army has mobilized at least nine newly formed brigades or their main forces to rush to the rescue, and the reserve forces in the hinterland have all been dispatched. Judging from the battlefield situation, the Russian side is bound to remove this "nail". As for the battle situation, I am afraid we will have to wait until the main forces of both sides fight hard to know, but Zelensky's strategic goal has actually been achieved by more than half.

In a sense, the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk is actually a "political battle". Trump has recently made frequent statements on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. If he returns to the White House, he is likely to not continue to assist Ukraine like Biden did, which is like a "catastrophe" for Ukraine. Against this background, Zelensky decided to cross the border and attack the Russian mainland, which not only showed the United States that the Ukrainian army still has some courage, but also proved from the side that the current strength of the Russian army is not that strong, and it is valuable to continue to assist Ukraine. In this way, even if Trump comes to power, he will inevitably consider the feasibility of using Ukraine to contain Russia and will not easily cut off assistance.

Moreover, this surprise attack has achieved the biggest victory since 2022, giving European and American politicians who already support aid to Ukraine a reason to expand aid. Even if the Russian army finally drives the Ukrainian army out of Kursk, Zelensky's goal has almost been achieved. If he can repel the Russian army coming to help head-on, Zelensky will make a lot of money.

In short, there are new variables in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine. What is worth paying attention to next is what kind of battle will be fought between Russia and Ukraine around Kursk Oblast, and whether the Russian army will draw elite troops from eastern Ukraine to support. If these elite Russian troops can be mobilized to come to the rescue, it is not impossible for the Ukrainian army to launch a beautiful counterattack in the eastern Ukraine.