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The situation in the Middle East has continued to escalate recently due to the assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh. The White House recently warned that Iran may launch an attack on Israel in the near future.

According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on August 14, a senior Iranian official said that whether Iran launches a retaliatory strike against Israel is related to whether Israel can reach a ceasefire agreement in Gaza with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas).

Outside analysts believe that Iran is about to take retaliatory actions against Israel, but may be restrained because neither side wants to trigger a wider regional conflict.

Iranian official says this week's Gaza ceasefire talks crucial

On July 31, then Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, the capital of Iran. Hamas and Iran believe that the assassination was carried out by Israel, and Iran firmly stated that it would retaliate. According to multiple media reports, Israel has neither admitted nor denied the assassination of Haniyeh.

After the incident, three anonymous Iranian officials said that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei had ordered a direct attack on Israel, but it was unclear whether Iran would adjust its means of retaliation again to avoid escalating the situation. Earlier on August 4, Iranian President Pezerhziyan met with Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi and said that the assassination of Haniya was a "serious mistake" made by Israel and Iran would not ignore it. Iranian Acting Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani said that Israel's actions needed to be "responded to more firmly than before."

The remarks made by Iran’s top military and political leaders have caused speculation that Iran’s military retaliation against Israel is imminent, but several days have passed and Iran has yet to take action.

According to reports, regarding the delay in taking action, a spokesman for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran said on August 6 that Iran has not taken military action yet, but is launching psychological warfare against Israel. It is reported that the psychological warfare here refers to Iran's threat to retaliate against Israel militarily, but Israel does not know when and how Iran will retaliate, which makes Israel psychologically afraid. In April, Iran's first direct military strike on Israeli military targets from its homeland has demonstrated Iran's ability and determination.

Amid the tense situation, Israel is on high alert. It is reported that since last week, the Israeli military has strengthened the nationwide air raid sirens and broadcast alert systems, including sending real-time text messages to residents in target areas. Many local councils have advised residents to reduce unnecessary activities, stay near protected areas, and avoid large gatherings. IDF spokesman Hagari said at a press conference on the 12th that Israel takes Iran's statement seriously and is therefore ready for the highest level of defense and attack.

On August 13, local time, the media quoted a senior Iranian official as saying that the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza, which are expected to be held on Thursday (15th), are crucial to the current situation. If the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza fail or Israel delays, an attack on Israel will be launched. US President Biden also expects that if a ceasefire agreement is reached in Gaza in the next few days, Iran's attack plan against Israel may be postponed.

Iran is not considering sending representatives to the upcoming ceasefire talks in Gaza, according to reports. Iran's UN mission told the media in a statement: "We have no intention of participating in such negotiations." Iran's statement came as many countries are pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza, hoping that such an agreement will prevent Iran from launching retaliatory attacks on Israel.

Iran is said to be facing a difficult choice, and many countries call on Iran not to attack Israel

Analysts believe that Iran is about to take retaliatory action, but it may be restrained.

Some media said that although Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital and was seen as a provocation against the Iranian government, experts said that this did not change Iran's desire to avoid broader regional conflicts with countries such as Israel.

Other media reports said that Iran and its allies are weighing how to retaliate strongly against two assassinations committed by Israel in Lebanon and Iran, while avoiding triggering a full-scale war (in the Middle East) that no one wants to see. Iran is facing a difficult choice.

Reza Akbari, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Institute for International Organizations for War and Peace Reporting, believes that Iran is thinking about how to retaliate and send a signal that the assassination will not lead to an escalation of the regional situation. Although Iran's top leadership has promised to carry out "severe revenge", they continue to engage in diplomatic contacts with intermediaries, which reassures some analysts that the Iranian leadership still has no intention of launching a larger-scale conflict.

Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg expressed a similar view. "I feel that the more time Iran spends talking to everyone in the Middle East except Israel, and to quite a few outside the region, the more likely it is that Iran's response will be controlled and restrained," Goldberg said.

Another question that the outside world is concerned about is whether members of the "Arc of Resistance" will participate if Iran takes retaliatory actions. The "Arc of Resistance" is an anti-Israel alliance led by Iran, whose members include Hamas, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi armed forces and some Iraqi militias.

Imad Salami, a political scientist at the Lebanese American University, said that Hezbollah and other groups in Lebanon may maintain close ties with Iran and try to avoid adding fuel to the fire. "Such close ties are intended to demonstrate a broad front against Israel, but Iran's strategic calculations suggest that retaliatory actions should be taken but should avoid triggering a full-scale war in the region. Iran prefers to avoid the conflict between Gaza and Israel turning into a direct war between Iran and Israel," Salami said.

As relations between Iran and Israel become tense, many countries have called on Iran not to launch attacks on Israel. According to the White House website, the United States, Britain, France, Germany and Italy issued a joint statement on the situation in the Middle East on the 12th, expressing their full support for ongoing efforts to ease tensions in Gaza, reach a ceasefire and release hostages. The statement agreed to restart ceasefire negotiations later this week and urged all parties to fulfill their responsibilities and reach an agreement as soon as possible. The statement also called on Iran not to launch attacks on Israel.

Beijing News reporter Zhu Yuehong

Editor Zhang Lei Proofreader Zhang Yanjun