Foreign media speculates how long Ukraine's cross-border attacks can last
2024-08-14
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Our special correspondent in Russia Xiao Xinxin ● Our special correspondent Liu Yupeng
A video posted on social media by Ukrainian President Zelensky on the 12th showed that the top commander of the Ukrainian army said that his troops had occupied about 1,000 square kilometers of land in Russia's Kursk Oblast. On the same day, Russian President Putin vowed to "resolutely respond" to the Ukrainian army's attack and ordered his army to "drive the enemy out of our territory." He also said that Ukraine's armed provocations in the Russian border area were to strengthen its position in future negotiations. But it is meaningless to engage with a regime that attacks civilians and civilian facilities. In response to Putin's statement, the Russian "Viewpoint" quoted experts as saying that the Ukrainian army's "invasion" of Kursk Oblast will not fundamentally change the situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Kiev's actions have ended the possibility of a peaceful resolution of the conflict in the near future. At the same time, all parties are still discussing, as the Ukrainian army's attack on Kursk Oblast enters its eighth day, "how long can they hold on?" British Sky TV quoted Michael Clark, a visiting professor at King's College London, as saying that although the attack was impressive, it may not be Ukraine's long-term strategic goal. The battle in Kursk will be measured in days and weeks, not months. "Russia has not been invaded since 1941, so from his (Putin's) point of view this is unacceptable." Therefore, the Russian leader will invest a lot of resources to drive out the Ukrainian troops.
Putin: "What is there to talk about? What can we say to them?"
According to a report by Russian News Agency on the 12th, Putin held a meeting on the situation on the Russian border at the Novo-Ogaryovo residence on the outskirts of Moscow that day. The meeting was held in a combination of online and offline forms. Relevant leaders of the Russian Federation Security Council, the government, the Presidential Office, and the powerful departments, as well as the leaders of Belgorod Oblast, Bryansk Oblast and Kursk Oblast attended the meeting.
Putin pointed out at the meeting that Ukraine's attack on Russia was aimed at improving Ukraine's position in the negotiations, and Russia will firmly respond to Ukraine's series of provocations in the border area. "It is now clear why the Kiev regime rejected our proposal to return to the track of a peaceful solution. The enemy is trying to improve its position in future negotiations with the help of its Western masters." Putin said, "But what can we talk about with those who indiscriminately attack civilians and civilian facilities and try to create threats against nuclear power facilities? What can we say to them?"
Putin also said that at present, the Russian Ministry of Defense's top priority is to drive the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory and, together with the border guards, reliably protect the country's borders. The Russian Federal Security Service and the Russian National Guard must ensure the anti-terrorist posture and effectively combat the Ukrainian army's sabotage and reconnaissance groups.
Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Smirnov reported on the situation in the state at the meeting. He said that at present, the Ukrainian army controls 28 settlements in the state, and the situation of about 2,000 residents in these settlements is unknown. The Ukrainian army's front line deep into the state is 12 kilometers deep and 40 kilometers wide. Since the Ukrainian army currently has no clear "front line" in the state, it is difficult to determine its specific location.
As of the 12th, a total of 121,000 people had been evacuated from Kursk Oblast, and the evacuation of 59,000 people was still ongoing. According to a report by Russia's TASS news agency on the 13th, Artyom Sharov, deputy director of the Information Policy Department of the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations, reported at a press conference that day that more than 2,000 people had been evacuated from the border area of Kursk Oblast in the past 24 hours.
According to a report by Ukrainian News Agency on the 12th, Ukrainian President Zelensky said on social media that he convened a meeting of the Ukrainian Army Supreme Command that day. At the meeting, the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serski, claimed that the Ukrainian army currently controls about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. The Ukrainian army is continuing to take offensive actions against the Kursk Oblast, and the battle is still ongoing. The Strategic Communications Bureau of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on the evening of the 12th that the area of Russian territory controlled by the Ukrainian army in one week is equivalent to the area of Ukrainian territory controlled by the Russian army in 2024.
According to AFP on the 13th, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said that Kiev was not interested in "taking over" Russian territory. "The sooner Russia agrees to restore a just peace... the sooner the Ukrainian Defense Forces' attacks on Russia will stop," he told reporters.
Fighting in eastern Ukraine has increased significantly
The Ukrainian army's sudden cross-border offensive does not seem to have significantly reduced its pressure on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine. According to Reuters on the 13th, the Ukrainian General Staff said in its daily report that in the past 24 hours, the Russian army has stepped up its attacks on the Pokrovsk front in eastern Ukraine, with a total of 52 battles, a significant increase compared to 28 to 42 battles per day in the past week. The Ukrainian Air Force said that day that Russia launched 38 attack drones and two "Iskander-M" tactical missiles at Ukraine at night. Among them, 30 drones were destroyed in eight regions of Ukraine.
In addition, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces announced on the 13th that Ukraine will impose personnel movement control in the area 20 kilometers from the border in Sumy Oblast bordering Kursk Oblast. This move is due to the increased intensity of hostilities and the intensified activities of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups and special operations forces.
On the other hand, according to TASS on the 13th, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported that day that the Russian air defense system destroyed 14 Ukrainian drones over Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts. In addition, the Ukrainian army lost 420 people and 55 armored vehicles in the Kursk direction in one day, including 3 tanks, 8 armored personnel carriers, 1 infantry fighting vehicle, 43 armored vehicles, and 31 vehicles, 1 multiple rocket system launcher and 1 artillery were destroyed.
"Most of the personnel and equipment of the first echelon of Ukrainian troops entering Kursk Oblast have been eliminated." Araudinov, deputy director of the Military and Political Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces and commander of the Chechen "Akhmat" special forces, said on the 13th that NATO was obviously involved in planning the operation. "I think the US generals directly led the operation. There were also a large number of mercenaries involved. Military experts from these countries are likely to be involved." The Russian Federal Investigative Committee reported on the 12th that in the process of investigating the Ukrainian army's attack on the border area of Kursk Oblast, the committee determined that Ukraine used weapons such as firearms, heavy equipment, and multiple rocket launcher systems provided by NATO countries.
According to Reuters on the 12th, U.S. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, who was visiting Ukraine that day, fanned the flames, saying that Ukraine's cross-border raid on Russia's Kursk region was "brilliant" and "bold," and urged the Biden administration to continue to provide weapons to Ukraine. Russia Today reported that Graham also encouraged Western pilots to go to Ukraine to "fight for freedom" until Kiev trained its own pilots.
"Going deeper into Russian territory could worsen the situation"
"Achieving peace requires the participation and dialogue of all parties." According to the website of Russia Today TV on the 13th, the Italian and Swiss foreign ministries issued a joint statement on the 12th saying that the two foreign ministers agreed to maintain contact and cooperation "to create the best possible conditions for the second 'Ukrainian Peace Summit' attended by all parties, including Russia, and all relevant global participants."
The Russian side may not be interested in the peace-promoting signals sent by the West. "In the past month or two, Western media have been talking about the possibility of launching peace talks," Russian military expert and chairman of the board of directors of the Russian Officers Organization Roman Shkurlatov was quoted by Izvestia on the 13th as saying, "The West misled us and forced us to discuss peace talks at a time when the Kiev regime was preparing to invade the Kursk region. When we began to seriously discuss some prospects for peace, they prepared a despicable attack under this cover. After this, perhaps there is really nothing to talk to them about."
Western media still do not look favorably on the Ukrainian army's assault on the Russian border. The Economist magazine said that some aspects of Ukraine's action seemed to be carefully planned, but the ultimate goal remained unclear. The minimum goal seemed to be to force the Russian army to withdraw from Kharkiv and Donbass. Initial signs showed that the outcome was inconclusive. The report believes that the mathematical calculations of war have never been favorable to Ukraine, which must conserve limited resources, and going deep into Russian territory may worsen the situation.
At the same time, Russia and Belarus are stepping up their ties. TASS reported on the 12th that Russian Security Council Secretary Shoigu held talks with Belarusian Security Council State Secretary Volfovich in Moscow. The two sides agreed on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and confirmed the anchoring of the strategic partnership. The website of Russia Today TV reported on the 13th that the Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced on the same day that it would send rocket and artillery units to Russia for military exercises. The day before, Minsk said it also sent air defense forces to conduct joint exercises with the Russian army. ▲#Deep Good Articles Project#
