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On August 14, important news came out of Tokyo. Relevant sources revealed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has basically decided not to participate in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election in September. The Kishida administration came to power in October 2021 and will end in less than three years. In the next Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, the Liberal Democratic Party will select a successor.

Why did Kishida decide to withdraw from the election this time? Does this mean that Kishida's factionModeMicro? Who is most likely to succeed Kishida and become the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and then the next prime minister of Japan? What impact will all this have on changes in Japan's political situation? Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Japan Research Center of Liaoning University, accepted an interview with China News Service on a series of questions and gave his interpretation.

01

Facing resistance from within the party and from public opinion

Will Kishida follow in Biden's footsteps?

Chen Yang believes that the announcement by Japanese Prime Minister and LDP President Fumio Kishida that he will not participate in the LDP presidential election is similar to the recent announcement by US President Biden that he will not run in the 2024 US presidential election.

File photo: US President Biden.

In Chen Yang's view, both Kishida and Biden have encountered resistance from within the party and from public opinion, especially since 2024, when Kishida's cabinet support rate has continued to be low.

The results of a nationwide telephone opinion poll conducted by Kyodo News previously showed that the Kishida Cabinet's approval rating was 24.6%, which has been below 30% for nine consecutive times, while the disapproval rating was as high as 60.7%, and the approval rating continued to be low.

Kyodo News and other analysts:There are at least two factors that led Kishida to decide to give up.First, although Kishida had previously explored the possibility of running for election, his cabinet's approval rating was only over 20%. There were calls within the Liberal Democratic Party to replace Kishida, believing that under Kishida's leadership, the party would inevitably run into trouble in the next House of Representatives election.

Second, it is possible that Kishida lost support within the party for his response to the LDP’s kickback incident. The report said that Kishida revealed to people close to him the reason for not running for election, saying that “someone must be held accountable” for the kickback incident.

Chen Yang further analyzed that in fact, Kishida himself took many remedial measures, such as: by announcing the acceleration of constitutional amendment to please the conservative forces within the Liberal Democratic Party; through domestic and foreign policy measures to please public opinion and try to gain support. But overall, these measures have limited effect.

At the same time, Chen Yang pointed out that since 2024, the Liberal Democratic Party led by Kishida has lost many parliamentary by-elections and local chief executive elections, which has accelerated Kishida's "unpopularity" within the Liberal Democratic Party. Of course, it is also because Kishida himself may not have successfully persuaded Taro Aso, the "big boss" in the Liberal Democratic Party, to gain his support.

Therefore, Kishida's announcement that he would not run for election was the result of the combined efforts of the LDP and public opinion.

File photo: Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

02

Facing a “melee”

The LDP presidential election is complicated

With the dissolution of the main factions within the LDP and Kishida's announcement that he will not run, Chen Yang believes that this means the LDP presidential election in September will become unpredictable, and also means that there may be multiple candidates running in the presidential election this time.

In the past, the existence of factions within the Liberal Democratic Party made the results of the presidential election relatively easy to predict, because many factions would announce their support in advance, and often the result would be basically determined who would be elected before the presidential election officially began.

However, now that only the Aso faction remains in the LDP, it is relatively difficult to judge who will become the new LDP president in this election.

Furthermore, Chen Yang pointed out that Kishida’s announcement that he will not run for election means that many people will be able to run for election “legitimately”, such as LDP Secretary-General Motegi Toshimitsu.

Motegi Toshimitsu has not publicly stated his intention to run for the election, as he has always been worried about being labeled as the "Reiwa version of Akechi Mitsuhide". However, as Kishida, the president and prime minister, does not run for the election, Motegi Toshimitsu and other members of Kishida's cabinet have become eligible to run for the election, such as Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and Minister of Economic Security Sanae Takaichi.

In addition, former LDP Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, who is currently fleeing to Taiwan, as well as former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and former Economic and Security Minister Takayuki Kobayashi, are also likely to participate in this LDP presidential election.

Chen Yang analyzed that overall, Toshimitsu Motegi and Shigeru Ishiba have a relatively higher probability of being elected in the end.

As for Motegi, although he is not well-known in Japanese society, he is relatively influential within the Liberal Democratic Party and is a pragmatist, and Taro Aso does not dislike Motegi.

As for Ishiba Shigeru, he is also a man of action, has political ambitions, and is relatively well-known in society. However, he is relatively unpopular within the party.

Chen Yang predicts that a new president or even a new prime minister of Japan may be chosen from the two. But in general, the political situation in Japan is changing rapidly, and no one may know the final result until the last moment.

03

Facing multiple changes

What will be the future direction of Japan?

Chen Yang believes that, in a sense, the results of this LDP presidential election will have an important impact on the direction of Japan's political situation.

First of all, from the perspective of the LDP's own governance, the results of this election will determine whether the LDP can continue to govern stably. The term of office of the current Japanese House of Representatives will expire on October 30, 2025. This means that Japan must hold a House of Representatives election before October 30, 2025.

At the same time, Japan will hold a Senate election in the summer of 2025. Affected by the political "black money" scandal, the LDP's support rate continues to be low. Even if a new LDP president is elected, whether he can lead the LDP to win the two major elections next year will determine whether the party can continue to govern stably.

From the perspective of Japan's overall national development, Japan's national security strategy has undergone major changes during the three years that Kishida has served as Prime Minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Chen Yang pointed out that in the past three years, Japan has been more proactive in choosing sides in the game between major powers, which has caused concerns in Japan and even in neighboring countries.

Therefore, whether the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan can amend and correct some of the current erroneous strategic policies will undoubtedly determine the future direction of Japan.

According to Kyodo News, Fumio Kishida has visited about 32 countries and regions since he became Prime Minister of Japan in October 2021. The characteristics of these visits are that they focus on the Ukrainian crisis and China's trends.

Since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, Kishida has made clear his support for Ukraine. In June 2022, he became the first Japanese prime minister to attend the summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a military alliance between the United States and Europe, and stressed that "Ukraine may be the East Asia of tomorrow." In March 2023, Kishida made a "lightning" visit to Ukraine.

During the same period, Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol reached a consensus on the normalization of Japan-ROK relations, restarting the "shuttle diplomacy" of mutual visits between leaders. Japan also launched trilateral defense cooperation with the United States and South Korea, and deepened diplomatic cooperation with Southeast Asian countries in areas such as maritime security.

On the other hand, Japan-China relations are still an important issue that the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan and the future prime minister of Japan must face. In July, Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister, met with Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa in Vientiane and said that the current Sino-Japanese relations are at a critical stage where they will either advance or retreat. China's policy toward Japan has always maintained stability and continuity.

Wang Yi stressed that he hopes Japan will establish an objective and correct understanding of China and pursue a positive and rational policy toward China. The two sides should meet each other halfway, maintain the political foundation of bilateral relations, strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation, properly manage differences, and truly implement the strategic and mutually beneficial relationship.

Wang Yi also reiterated China's position on the discharge of Fukushima nuclear contaminated water into the sea, stressing that effective participation of stakeholders and independent sampling should be ensured and a long-term international monitoring mechanism should be established.

source:China News Network