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According to the latest assessment by the US and Israeli governments, Iran will launch a retaliatory action against Israel as early as this week. Currently, the Israel Defense Forces has entered the highest level of combat readiness, and the United States has also stepped up its deployment of strategic weapons to the Middle East.

US Defense Secretary asks USS Lincoln to speed up deployment to the Middle East

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group received an order! -- This was a post by the US Navy nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Lincoln on social media on the 12th local time. The order was issued by US Secretary of Defense Austin. The Pentagon issued a statement on the evening of the 11th saying,In a phone call with Israeli Defense Minister Galant that day, Austin emphasized that the United States is committed to taking all possible measures to assist in the defense of Israel. As a concrete manifestation of this commitment, he ordered the USS Lincoln to speed up its journey to the Middle East.

The USS Lincoln left its home port in San Diego, California, on the west coast of the United States on July 11 this year, arrived in Guam on August 4, and left the port on August 8 after a short stay. Austin particularly emphasized that the ship is equipped with stealth F-35C carrier-based fighter jets. In addition, Austin also ordered the cruise missile nuclear submarine Georgia to be deployed within the jurisdiction of the US Central Command.

US cruise missile nuclear submarine: can carry up to 154 Tomahawk missiles

The USS Georgia is one of the only four Ohio-class cruise missile nuclear submarines in service in the US Navy. This type of submarine is converted from the Ohio-class strategic nuclear submarine and has a full load displacement of more than 18,000 tons. Of the original 24 submarine-launched intercontinental missile launch tubes of the strategic nuclear submarine, 22 have been converted into Tomahawk cruise missile launch tubes. In 2019, ABC reporters were allowed to board a submarine of the same model as the USS Georgia.

Assuming each launch tube is fully loaded with 7 missiles,A cruise missile nuclear submarine can carry up to 154 Tomahawk missiles.In addition, this type of submarine is also an important combat platform for secretly deploying special forces. There are two special cabins installed on the submarine, which can carry up to 66 "Navy SEAL" special forces.

The United States and Israel agree that Iran's retaliation is imminent, but the exact time is still difficult to determine

US media revealed that in the first week of August, Israeli intelligence agencies had been believing that Iran had not made a final decision on large-scale military retaliation against Israel, and that Tehran had not formed a unified opinion. But in the past two days,The latest Israeli assessment shows that Iran is ready for retaliatory actions.The earliest possible implementation is before August 15. Israel TV 13 pointed out that the Paris Olympics may also be one of the factors for Iran's delay in retaliating. As the host of this Olympics, France has put pressure on Iran and Lebanon, urging them not to launch military operations during the event.

The White House said on the 12th that it agreed with Israel's judgment.John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator at the White House National Security Council, said that the United States and its allies are prepared for all possible situations, and President Biden is confident in the United States' ability to defend Israel.

Israeli intelligence also shows that Hezbollah in Lebanon may take action before Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Galant warned that if there is a large-scale attack by Hezbollah, the Israeli army will fight in an "unprecedented way".

A large number of residents have been evacuated from Israel's northern border

Since October 2023, the conflict between the Israeli army and Lebanese Hezbollah in the border area has continued to this day.A large number of residents in southern Lebanon and the northern border area of ​​Israel have been evacuated.On the 12th, the Israeli Air Force announced that after making the latest assessment of the current security situation, it decided to ban officers and soldiers from leaving the country.

However, as of the afternoon of the 13th Beijing time, the Israeli Homeland Garrison Command had not yet raised the alert level. In Haifa, the main city closest to the Lebanese-Israeli border, people's daily lives have not been significantly affected.

Biden: We are working every day to avoid escalation of conflict

International public opinion generally believes that the key to avoiding the escalation of the situation is to achieve a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire in Gaza as soon as possible. On the 8th, the leaders of the United States, Qatar and Egypt called on Israel and Hamas to resume negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, or Cairo, the capital of Egypt, on the 15th "to bridge all remaining differences and begin to implement the agreement." It is reported that senior US officials, including CIA Director Burns and US Secretary of State Blinken, will visit the Middle East intensively this week.

US President Biden

My team and I are fighting every day to prevent this conflict from escalating into a (larger) regional war.

However, Hamas issued a statement on the 11th, asking the ceasefire negotiation mediators to formulate an implementation plan for the previous negotiation results and force Israel to implement it, rather than holding more negotiations or proposing new plans. Many media outlets believe that Hamas is hinting at refusing to resume negotiations.

US study: Israeli army is far from achieving its goal of "destroying Hamas"

A recent study conducted by the US media and think tanks shows that after more than 10 months of fierce fighting, only two of the 16 battalions deployed by Hamas in the northern and central Gaza Strip were completely destroyed. Nine battalions were damaged but still able to operate, and five battalions maintained their combat effectiveness and were able to actively launch military strikes against Israel.

Japanese media: The US will once again have a "zero aircraft carrier" situation in the Western Pacific

It is worth noting that on August 2, when the U.S. Department of Defense first announced that the Lincoln would be deployed in the Middle East, it used the expression "replacing" the Roosevelt currently operating in the region. On the 11th, the Pentagon's wording quietly changed to "joining forces with the Roosevelt." Analysts believe that the change in expression suggests that the U.S. military is likely to maintain a dual-carrier deployment in the Middle East for some time to come.

According to the Nikkei Asia website, the USS Carl Vinson will return to the United States after completing the Rim of the Pacific exercise in Hawaii.This means that the Western Pacific will once again be without a U.S. aircraft carrier deployed until the USS George Washington arrives in Japan later this year.Xu Ruilin, a scholar at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, believes that the US move reflects the Pentagon's assessment that the overall situation in the Western Pacific is relatively stable and controllable. Some US analysts pointed out that in recent years, the US government has been loudly promoting the eastward shift of its strategic focus and the "Asia-Pacific priority" of its military deployment, but the US's ambition to pursue global hegemony far exceeds its current strength.

Experts: The US is "taking money from one pocket to pay for another", and its verbal promises are difficult to fulfill

Source: CCTV4 "Asia Today"