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The short-term speculation in the bond market has been put on hold, the central bank's "call" has been effective, and financial redemption is controllable

2024-08-13

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Cailianshe News, August 13 (Editor: Li Xiang)After the central bank issued a series of strong "calls", the "bond bull" has cooled down. The yield of active 10-year treasury bonds has returned to the level before the July rate cut. It rose by nearly 15bp last week and fell back by 4.25bp yesterday. After several days of weakness, the market rebounded this morning, buying reappeared, and most yields fell.

At the end of the trading day, social financing data was released. The increase in social financing scale from January to July was 18.87 trillion yuan, 3.22 trillion yuan less than the same period last year. The yield of the active 10-year treasury bond 240011 broke yesterday's lowest value of 2.21%, and fell to 2.2075%.

During the rapid rebound phase of the bond market, market panic has intensified and concerns about the redemption of wealth management products have also increased. However, most market participants pointed out that there is no need to worry too much about the redemption wave of wealth management products, but they still pay attention to long-term debt risks. After the bond market has adjusted fully, they may pay attention to investment opportunities in short-term bonds.

Bond trading spontaneously shrank, and the trading volume of "240011" fell below 1,000 transactions, a drop of more than 80% from the high point.

Under strong regulatory measures, the bond market ushered in its third wave of correction this year, and trading volume also declined.

Cailianshe learned from industry insiders that there were rumors in the market that many market makers would not conduct long-term bond "market making" transactions. Last Friday, a transaction was made through a currency broker, but on Monday, no market makers could be found to "make the market", and there was a concern about transaction defaults. In fact, the trading volume of active-term treasury bonds has indeed declined significantly recently.