Russia and Ukraine are engaged in fierce fighting in Kursk Oblast: the battle line is not stable, and the Russian army has dug 40 kilometers of anti-tank trenches
2024-08-13
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The Russian and Ukrainian armies are engaged in fierce fighting in Russia's Kursk Oblast, with the Russian army trying to stabilize the front line while the Ukrainian army is trying to control a larger area.
The Russian military's air strikes across Ukraine are intended to reduce the pressure of the war in Kursk Oblast and weaken Ukraine's ability to support the front-line war. According to CCTV News on August 13, the Ukrainian Air Force said that the entire Ukraine is under a new round of air raid alerts.
Russia releases the destroyed Ukrainian armored vehicles.
The Ukrainian army's participation in the war is much greater than previously expected
The Ukrainian army's cross-border attack on Kursk Oblast began on August 6 and has now advanced dozens of kilometers into Russian territory. The Ukrainian army is trying to advance to the west and northwest of Kursk Oblast to control more areas, and may dig trenches and build fortifications in the controlled areas to prepare for the subsequent protracted trench warfare.
According to CCTV News, on August 12, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin that a total of 28 settlements and about 2,000 people in Kursk Oblast were controlled by the Ukrainian army. Currently, a total of 121,000 people have been evacuated from the border area in Kursk Oblast, and the Ukrainian army's attack has killed 12 civilians in the state and injured 121 people.
On the same day, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Sersky stated at the Supreme Command meeting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces currently control about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory. He pointed out that the Ukrainian army is continuing to take offensive actions in the Kursk region, and various troops are carrying out relevant tasks. The battle is still ongoing, and the situation on the entire front is under the control of the Ukrainian army.
For Russia, the key to the current situation in Kursk Oblast is to stabilize the front line and curb the Ukrainian army's offensive momentum. For Ukraine, which wants to control more Russian territory, it may try to push the front line forward while the Russian army is mobilizing troops and has not yet established a firm foothold. However, advancing the front line will be a test for logistical supplies and subsequent support.
CCTV News reported that on the 12th local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting on the security situation in Kursk Oblast. Putin said that Ukraine was trying to gain more bargaining chips for negotiations by launching an attack on Kursk Oblast.
Putin stressed that "the most urgent and important thing at the moment is to immediately drive the Ukrainian army out of Russian territory." He also said, "Despite the provocative actions launched by the Ukrainian army in Kursk Oblast, the Russian army is still advancing in an orderly manner along the entire combat contact line. After the Ukrainian army raided Kursk Oblast, the Russian army's offensive increased instead - the Ukrainian army will get the response it deserves, and the Russian army will achieve all its goals."
The latest report indicates that the Ukrainian army’s cross-border attack was not the 600-1,000 people initially estimated, but may be tens of thousands. This is the largest cross-border attack by the Ukrainian army so far since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
According to a report by Reference News on the 11th, citing Austria's News, the number of Ukrainian troops participating in the war is obviously much larger than people had previously expected: the current statement is that there are at least 6 to 8 brigades or parts of them, and a US source claims that the number of Ukrainian troops participating in the war is more than 10,000 or 12,000. The Ukrainian army's occupied area or combat zone is said to have reached 300 square kilometers to more than 6,000 square kilometers, which is roughly equivalent to the area of Ukrainian territory controlled by the Russian army since this spring.
Forbes magazine reported that four mechanized brigades and one air assault brigade participated in the operation, with a theoretical total strength of 10,000 soldiers and 600 armored vehicles. However, it is not clear whether all the troops of these brigades were involved in the attack or only part of them were sent. Forbes said that the five brigades that have been confirmed to participate in the war are equipped with a variety of vehicles and artillery made in the Soviet Union, Europe and the United States.
Reports indicate that three Ukrainian brigades crossed the border to launch offensive operations, with several more brigades serving as the second echelon.
According to information released by the Russian army, these combat units are equipped with weapons such as Abrams tanks, Leopard 1A5 tanks, and Streit armored vehicles provided by Western countries.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported in its battle report on the 12th that the Russian army destroyed several armored vehicles including the US-made Abrams tanks and hit Ukrainian anti-artillery radars, ammunition depots, electronic warfare base stations and other targets. The Russian air defense system intercepted Ukrainian air bombs, rockets, drones and other targets.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated in a battle report on the same day that as of 16:00 on the 12th, the Ukrainian army continued to fight with the Russian army in Kharkiv, Pokrovsk and other areas, and repelled multiple Russian attacks.
A Russian military convoy was hit by HIMARS rocket launchers.
Russia deploys troops to try to stabilize the front
Austrian newspaper News reported that the Russian reinforcements were "either on the way or already arrived". It is reported that at least nine newly formed brigades or their main forces came to support, including marines, airborne troops, tanks and infantry from the Moscow region, St. Petersburg, the Far East, Donetsk and Luhansk. The Russian Air Force also launched a fierce attack on the Ukrainian army.
Observers have noticed that all reserve troops in the Russian hinterland have been deployed. It is worth noting that those currently being sent to fight in Kursk Oblast are conscripts. Although this may be unavoidable in the urgent situation of the domestic defense war, these recruits have no combat experience.
Conscripts are prone to suffer unnecessary losses in the early stages of combat due to their lack of combat experience.
The Global Times quoted CNN as saying that on the night of the 8th, a Russian reinforcement force was hit by a precise attack from the Ukrainian HIMARS long-range rocket launcher, and a video of the entire convoy engulfed in flames circulated on social media. The US War Zone website said that the latest video showed the scene after the attack, "More than a dozen cars were parked on the roadside, many of them were burned, and some were full of soldiers who looked dead or seriously injured. It is estimated that the attack killed more than 20 Russian soldiers and injured more than 100."
Some analysis pointed out that the convoy was heading to the front line and was attacked nearly 60 kilometers away from the front line. The convoy ignored the long-range strike capability of the Ukrainian Army's "HIMARS" and parked in a densely packed manner at night without any camouflage. It was tracked and monitored by Ukrainian Army drones and then attacked.
Russian military experts admitted that the Russian military convoy was attacked because of its own laxity: "When we mobilize reinforcements, the enemy will certainly track us through NATO satellites and other intelligence collection methods and try to cause additional damage. It is important that when we approach the front line, it is best to separate the columns (including during the stopover to avoid equipment and personnel crowding) to avoid losing too much equipment and personnel at one time when the Ukrainian missiles fall."
Since Russia is still in the process of deploying troops, coupled with problems in coordination and command of various combat forces, it is impossible to stabilize the front line. According to Russian News Agency on the 12th, Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, reported to President Putin that the current situation in the Kursk region is difficult. Smirnov added that the enemy's penetration depth is 12 kilometers and the width is 40 kilometers. But since there is no clear "front line" there, it is difficult to determine the specific location of the enemy.
Based on open source intelligence information, the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believes that Ukrainian troops have recently carried out activities in Russia within 24 kilometers of the border between the two countries.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Russian forces encountered unspecified problems because there was "no clear front line" and the location of "military units" was unclear - possibly referring to Ukrainian forces quickly engaging Russian forces near the settlement and then withdrawing from the area.
According to analysis, Russia has deployed battalion-level and below troops in Kursk Oblast, rather than complete brigades and regiments. The strength of these battalions is lower than their expected final strength, which may further exacerbate the confusion of Russia's response and make it difficult for the Russian army to quickly establish effective command and control in the region.
At present, in order to resist the Ukrainian army's offensive momentum, the Russian army has sent more combat troops to the front line, and has dug a 40-kilometer-long anti-tank trench in Kursk Oblast, and used fighter jets and helicopters to carry out air strikes on the Ukrainian army. In addition, the Aerospace Forces and the Army have begun to launch long-range missiles to attack the Ukrainian army's second-tier forces to curb the Ukrainian army's offensive momentum.
Analysts believe that the Ukrainian army may then dig trenches and fortifications in the areas under its control, occupy advantageous buildings, and engage in a protracted trench warfare with the Russian army on Russian territory to add more bargaining chips to the negotiations.
The Paper reporter Nan Boyi
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