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Reporter | An Jing
Editor｜Liu Haichuan

Since August 6, 2024, the Kursk region, a border area between Russia and Ukraine, has been attacked by Ukraine. After nearly a week of fighting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky admitted for the first time that the Ukrainian army had entered the Russian border area.

Since the start of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine has launched air strikes on the Russian border many times, and pro-Ukrainian armed forces have also carried out cross-border raids. However, the operation in Kursk Oblast is the first time that the Ukrainian regular army has entered Russian territory on a large scale to fight since the conflict.

Ukraine is facing a shortage of troops, and the unexpected move to attack Russia is seen as a "siege Wei to save Zhao" strategy. Russia launched a fierce attack on Pokrovsk, a strategic city in Donbass in eastern Ukraine, and the Ukrainian army is struggling to defend it.

Russia, on the other hand, has deliberately downplayed the severity of the Ukrainian attack on Kursk, announcing only the launch of an "anti-terrorist military operation" in Kursk and three other states, without requiring members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization of the CIS to conduct collective defense.

Kursk's geographical location diagram Image source: Google Maps

In his speech on the evening of the 10th, Zelensky announced for the first time that he had received a report on the Ukrainian army's "advancing the battle into the aggressor's territory." He said that Ukraine's operation this time was a move to restore justice and put pressure on the "aggressor."

Zelensky accused Russia of launching nearly 2,000 offensives from Kursk Oblast into Ukraine's Sumy Oblast this summer, saying, "These offensives must be responded to."

As of last Sunday, the Ukrainian army had advanced to Torpino and Obosh-Kolodzi in Kursk Oblast. Torpino is about 25 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the same day that the Russian army successfully prevented the Ukrainian army from further advancing into Kursk Oblast, struck Ukrainian armored vehicles and other targets, and intercepted Ukrainian missiles and drones.

The Russian Ministry of Defense also released a video of a drone attacking a Ukrainian tank.

Screenshot of the video released by the Russian Ministry of Defense showing drones striking Ukrainian tanks. Image source: Russian Ministry of Defense

Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said that Ukraine's attack on Kursk has injured at least 69 people. On the evening of the 11th, fragments of a Ukrainian missile hit a residential building in the Belovsky district of Kursk, injuring 13 people. So far, more than 76,000 people in Kursk Oblast have been transferred to safe areas.

Russia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and other members include Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, etc. Like NATO, the CSTO also has a collective defense clause. Once a member state is invaded by any country or multiple countries, it will be regarded as an invasion of all member states. After Ukraine attacked the Russian mainland, whether it would drag other members of the CSTO into the war has become a focus of attention.

But Russia deliberately downplayed the nature of Ukraine's actions. Last Sunday, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova characterized Ukraine's military action as a "terrorist action," condemning Ukraine's attempt to destroy Russian civilian facilities and kill civilians. Zakharova vowed that the Russian army would severely retaliate against the "barbaric terrorist act."

Russia's National Anti-Terrorism Committee has announced anti-terrorist operations in Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions, and will send additional soldiers and armed forces to the three regions. Kursk region has entered a state of emergency.

The picture shows a screenshot of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs tweet. Image source: X

The Russian Defense Ministry initially estimated that Ukraine had sent 1,000 troops to participate in the Kursk operation, but Ukrainian officials recently stated that the number of soldiers participating in the operation was far more than 1,000, ranging from thousands to 10,000.

However, Ukraine is facing a serious shortage of troops. In order to replenish its troops, the Ukrainian parliament amended the bill in May this year to allow some prisoners to join the army in exchange for their freedom. As of June, 2,750 prisoners in Ukraine had entered the front line to fight.

Ukrainian officials did not explain the purpose of attacking the Russian mainland when the troops were insufficient. Ukraine kept the action strictly confidential, and the United States also said it was not aware of it in advance.

European and American officials speculated that Ukraine's unexpected attack may have several purposes. One is to force Russia to transfer some of its military forces from the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine to support Kursk.

Since late July, Russia has launched a large-scale offensive against Pokrovsk, a strategic town and transportation hub in eastern Ukraine. Pokrovsk is a key point for Ukrainian military logistics and the intersection of highways and railways in eastern Ukraine. At the same time, Russia is also stepping up its attacks on Sumy Oblast.

Another goal of Ukraine may be to temporarily occupy parts of Kursk so as to have more bargaining chips in future ceasefire negotiations with Russia. According to US media reports, the Ukrainian army is digging trenches in Kursk, industrial excavators have entered the site, and it is expected that up to 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be stationed in Kursk for a period of time.

In order to further increase the bargaining chips, the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant has also become a key location that the Ukrainian army plans to capture. The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant is about 80 kilometers away from the border town of Suja. The Ukrainian army is advancing towards the nuclear power plant, and the Russian army is increasing its garrison in the surrounding areas.

Alexey Likhachev, general manager of Rosatom, spoke with IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi last weekend, pointing out that the Ukrainian army's actions posed a direct threat to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. Grossi called on both Russia and Ukraine to exercise maximum restraint to prevent a nuclear accident.

The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant has a total of 6 nuclear reactors. According to Grossi, 2 of them are currently closed, 2 are under construction, and 2 are in operation. Earlier, Ukraine announced the occupation of the Sudja gas metering station in Kursk. After the suspension of the Nord Stream gas pipeline, the Sudja gas metering station became a key hub for Russia to transport gas to Europe.

Last Sunday night, a fire broke out in the cooling system facilities of the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Energodar, Ukraine. Energodar has been occupied by Russia, and Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of launching attacks. At present, the radiation situation in the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant area has not changed, and no technical nuclear radiation has been detected.

Stephen Bryan, a former member of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, wrote that it is only a matter of time before the Ukrainian army is driven out of Russia. Whether Ukraine can get what it wants from the Kursk operation depends on the reaction speed of the Russian army and the garrison capacity of the Ukrainian army. The whole operation is a "big gamble" for Ukraine.