2024-08-13
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Ukraine has been invading Russian territory for several days, and due to the surprise attack and the weak defense of Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian army has made some progress in just a few days.
However, the Russian side reacted quickly, sending reinforcements quickly, stabilizing the position, and then launching a series of counterattacks.
Ukraine's risky attack on Russia's mainland reflects its current predicament. In the long war, the Ukrainian army has been exhausted and its resources are increasingly scarce. This desperate action is to gain more bargaining chips at the negotiation table. But this strategy is extremely dangerous and may backfire.
In particular, if the Ukrainian army's actions are not restricted, the consequences will be extremely serious.
Russian Federal Security Service Headquarters
Russia reveals shocking inside story
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the Russian Federal Security Service said that a prisoner revealed that if local Russian residents resisted, they would be ordered to shoot everyone on the spot.
The prisoner also mentioned that the Ukrainian troops looted and took away everything they could.
The captives also mentioned the plan and purpose of the attack on the Russian mainland, with the first target being Kursk and the next being Belgorod. The goal was to seize more Russian territory so that it could be used in exchange during peace negotiations.
If these allegations are true, they would be a serious violation of the laws of war, which clearly stipulate that warring parties must distinguish between civilians and combatants and protect civilian life and property.
The authenticity of what the prisoners revealed cannot be verified yet. If it is true, or if the Russian side believes what the prisoners said, the situation will escalate significantly.
On the one hand, Russia needs to save face and give an explanation to the Russians. On the other hand, as the party with more advantages, Russia will not allow the battlefield situation to change its strong position at the negotiating table.
Ukrainian President Zelensky
Ukraine has many ideas
At present, Ukraine's goal is not only to put pressure on Russia on the issue of negotiations, because Ukraine does not have the ability to completely change the rules of the game.There has been some progress in stealing the home, but if they want to "change home", the prerequisite is to be able to maintain the current results, which is very difficult for the Ukrainian army.
Ukraine probably wants to tell the Russians through this action that although the main battlefield is in Ukraine, Russia is not absolutely safe. As long as the war continues, the Russians will be in an uneasy atmosphere for a long time, which will prompt the Russians to put pressure on the Russian authorities.
In addition, Ukraine should have other ideas, including urging the current US government to provide assistance as soon as possible, making things bigger so that Trump, who may be elected, cannot stop the war, etc.
As to whether these goals can be achieved, it depends on how the situation develops in the future. After all, there is no big problem with internal unity in Russia. If things go wrong, it will instead arouse the overall anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the Russians and put Ukraine into a more unfavorable situation.
Putin listens to the report
Ukraine can only take risks
There is really no other choice for Ukraine now. If it fights step by step, it will never be able to defeat Russia. As long as there is a chance to defeat Russia in a head-on confrontation, Ukraine will not choose to take risks.
Therefore, when Ukraine made this risky choice, it had to a certain extent reflected Ukraine’s extremely unfavorable situation, so that it had to choose a very risky way to take a gamble and see if there could be any unexpected gains.
However, in the face of an absolute gap in hard power, the only effect that risky actions can have is to catch the enemy by surprise. Once the Russian side reacts, it will be difficult to continue.
Moreover, Russia will inevitably strengthen its homeland defense and will no longer give Ukraine similar opportunities, which means that such a tactic may only be used once. After that, the situation will return to the past and may even be more unfavorable to the Ukrainian army.