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According to Southern Metropolis Daily, recently, Pancha Holdings (Guangzhou) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Pancha"), which specializes in Pu'er tea, issued a notice on "Restructuring Announcement", stating that after consultation with the board of directors and core distributors, the company will carry out debt or equity restructuring.

Behind this announcement, Pancha, which was established only two years ago and is known as the "new dark horse" in the tea industry, is in a crisis of bankruptcy. According to relevant sources, the amount involved in Pancha's bankruptcy is as high as 10 billion yuan. On social platforms, many users posted videos and broke the news, saying that a large number of dealers came to Pancha's R&D center recently, and many of them were emotional and shouted "return the money."

At the end of 2023, the capital chain of Changshi Tea's "Financial Tea" was broken in the market, and the funds involved were no less than 200 million yuan. "Changshi Tea" was suspected of attracting investors to buy its products by speculating on tea prices and promised to buy them back at a high price, but the company's tea prices fell sharply, and the tea products purchased by investors could not be cashed, facing huge losses.

Why are some people always so gullible?

Who is the easiest to cheat?

That's an empiricist.

From the perspective of logical analysis, the conclusion of the Ponzi scheme is clear at a glance.

It is obvious that the interest rate in the market is only 2-3%, and even for high-risk private lending, it is only about 20% annualized, but the Ponzi scheme tells you that it is not difficult to make three times the profit.

For example, if it is packaged into a consumption points model, you can get up to three hundred yuan worth of goods if you buy something worth one hundred yuan.

A few years ago, people in the county said that shopping on an app called "Maimaitong" could earn you three times the points, which could be exchanged for an equivalent amount of cash. The simple understanding is that if you spend 100 yuan on the platform, you can not only get the product, but also earn 300 yuan. Maimaitong app Source: Times Weekly reporter Fu Yibo Yang Jie was not without doubt about the good thing of "pie in the sky". But her friends all bought it, and the records of continuous deposits in her account made her believe that "this good thing really exists". So she invested more than 800,000 yuan, and more than 1 million points in her account were waiting to be exchanged for an equivalent amount of cash. But Yang Jie finally waited for a scam and a bunch of numbers.

Here, the deceived person is an empiricist.

You cannot refute an empiricist. He sticks to one principle: Look, my friend has made money, so how can it be fake?

For a logical rationalist, he would think, how could such a good thing exist in the world?

How can 100 yuan become 300 yuan for no reason? If he has this ability, why should he serve the common people? All the big bosses in the world will have to look for him. Jack Ma can turn 100 billion into 300 billion.

Is it still necessary to work hard to promote it? This is a kind of logical reasoning thinking.

Everyone has a certain level of logical thinking ability. This is also where everyone questions the Ponzi scheme at the beginning. How can you make money? Why are you so awesome?

However, this logic-based questioning was quickly defeated by real-life experience.

My friend made money, isn’t that true?

Many people ask, when you discuss economics, why don't you list data and make judgments based on experience? What's the use of talking about principles and doing logical analysis every day? Is this kind of economics useful?

If we use statistics to judge the Ponzi schemes, then they all have good returns when they open. Statistics are not economics, but a record of historical experience.

Without rational and logical thinking ability, it is impossible to reach a consistent conclusion even when faced with a pile of data.

People who understand Ponzi schemes will say that this is because the number of people who joined in the early stages was greater than the number of people who received money, so he could give out so much money. As long as the number of people who join is less than the number of people who receive money, the market will collapse immediately.

The scammers in the market basically take advantage of people's experience and thinking to cheat them out of their money.

Evergrande's final madness is to sell houses crazily without signing online. Not signing online means that the money will not be put into the escrow account, and Evergrande can use it at will. However, based on experience, people will judge that Evergrande is such a big company, how could it be possible to cheat me of more than one million?

He must have his reasons for not wanting to enter the regulated account. There's no point in worrying.

This group of people became the last batch of leeks of Evergrande and the owners of an unfinished building.

Those who like to get to the bottom of things must be people with stronger logical thinking. They will ask, why is the money not deposited into the escrow account? What are you going to do with the money? Is your capital chain broken? Otherwise, why do you offer such a low discount and not deposit it into the escrow account? Are you trying to fill a hole?

The other party must answer one by one, and all the answers must be lies.

If we expose these lies one by one, we can see the purpose behind them.

Those who sell health products and folk treatment plans like to list a bunch of empirical cases for you to see, such as I cured diabetes and cancer, with photos, text, and interviews.

But if you ask him, you are so awesome, why do you still want to serve me? Jobs would be willing to pay 1 billion dollars, and the rich people all over the world are also facing the threat of diseases. If you want to cure them, you can easily pay hundreds of millions.

You're asking me for 3,000 yuan? Are you crazy? Isn't this just using a butcher knife to crack a nut?

How can any scarce and high-quality resources be sold at a low price?

As long as you have a certain level of logical thinking ability, it will be difficult for scammers to get close to you.

The victims of Pancha are not empiricists either.

The victims of Pancha include those with investments of over 100 million yuan and countless others with investments of millions.

Moreover, in Fangcun, such financial tea defaults are not uncommon. At this time, it is wrong to think that they are empiricists and inexperienced newbies.

When someone loses, someone else makes money. Did the chairman of Fantea make all the money? No.

The money that most people lose is actually earned by another group of "rationalists".

From the day they joined, they knew clearly about its future, which was that it would inevitably go bankrupt. However, this group of people knew very well that if you wanted to expand Pancha, you had to build up experience and let others see that someone was making money, so that more people would join.

So there are a large number of people who joined in early and made several times the money. These people will not come forward to say how much they have earned, but as long as you understand the principles of the Ponzi scheme, you will know that those who joined in early often become rich within a few months.

Ms. Lin said: "The monthly interest rate was over 15% at the beginning. My friend achieved 'financial freedom' with this. I couldn't resist the temptation and invested almost all my family assets. The longer the investment period, the higher the profit." "I came into contact with the Pancha model in early 2023. At first I thought it was a scam and ignored it, but more and more tea lovers around me made money. In August last year, I invested 6 million yuan and it quickly doubled. It was so exciting." Brother Liu, a distributor from Chaoshan, told Interface News reporters.

These people fully understand the model of Pancha and fully understand the outcome. Their purpose of participating in it is to make a huge profit before the crisis breaks out and then stop.

These are the people who are trapped, because they are not as smart as others. Others stop after making a quick buck, but they make six million and may further invest ten or twenty million, hoping to double it. They just think that it is still early for the collapse.

Everyone knows that their ultimate profits come from the losses of the last group of people, but they themselves think that they are not the last group.

Therefore, this group of people are not victims of the Ponzi scheme at all. Regardless of whether they make a profit or a loss, they are actually collaborators of the Ponzi scheme. The Ponzi scheme has become a tool for them to obtain income from another group of people.

The fact that he became a leek in the end does not mean that he was a victim, but that the people who cut the leeks cut each other.

Most of the people involved in the pan-tea industry are tea distributors. They have been involved in financial tea for many years and are very savvy in business. How could they not know the consequences?

It's not that they are too greedy, but that they are too bad. From the beginning, they expected to make several times the money when the market finally collapsed, and the last batch of people would make them extremely rich.

Finally, their crying and dressing themselves up as victims cannot conceal their purpose of making profits.

This is not a Ponzi scheme, this is Ponzi scheme.

It is a game in which everyone knows the consequences, but everyone bets that they will not be the last ones.

They like to play, so let them play. No need to sympathize with them, but to curse them, they are just a group of fraudsters who attempted to defraud others - all the participants are.

To date, Ponzi schemes have been around in China for more than 20 years. As a businessman, if you have never heard of or come into contact with them in the market, and you say you are a newbie, then you are lying.

Even if he is an ordinary adult, he does not deserve sympathy. Who made you believe that pie will fall from the sky?

In fact, it is not just Pancha. Almost all participants in the Ponzi schemes are aware of the consequences, and they all want to cut off the last group of people.

And they also know the law. If I am not the banker, then I will not be responsible if something goes wrong, and I will become a "victim".

If they succeed in getting the cut, they will become rich overnight. If the young models in the club fail to get the cut and get the cut themselves, they will cry out to the sky and beg the government to rescue them.

If you need to jump off the building, just do it. Don't play the victim. I won't sympathize with you for even a minute.