news

In the past few days, the combat style of Israel's assassination of Haniyeh has been determined: Israeli military agents fired one or two 7-kilogram HERO70 cruise missiles with a range of 40 kilometers to break through the window and kill the target. Now, the whole world is watching how Iran retaliates against Israel, and the United States seems to be more nervous than the Israelis. Why do you say that? Because this sudden assassination not only directly disrupted the US military's global military deployment, but also completely ruined the US's efforts to mediate a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. Immediately afterwards, news spread online that Hamas would withdraw from the Beijing Declaration and fight Israel to the death, which was later confirmed to be a rumor. There is also a saying that Israel killed Haniyeh to express its dissatisfaction with the Beijing Declaration and started the process of accelerating the elimination of Hamas.

When we look at the complex changes in these issues, we must see clearly the vested interests of all parties.

From the perspective of the United States, the most worrying situation is now emerging. On the one hand, Israel is escalating the conflict in the Middle East uncontrollably, and it seems to be dragging the United States into it, which is certainly in the interests of Israel; on the other hand, the Biden administration has always wanted toGaza WarEnd it as soon as possible, get rid of the Red Sea shipping crisis, avoid serious damage to the relationship between the United States and Arab countries, and finally promote the process of establishing diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab countries. Only when the Gaza War is over can the United States more smoothly advance its own Middle East strategy, thereby creating more favorable conditions for strategic competition with China. This is also what we said in the previous program, that the United States will definitely have a deal with Iran in private, and even mediate the conflict between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel. Because the United States cannot control the Netanyahu government, it has to find a way to prevent Israel from being involved in a multi-front war so that Israel can focus on ending the Gaza War.

According to the South China Sea Strategic Situation Awareness Report, the USS Lincoln, a US Navy aircraft carrier originally planned to be deployed in the Pacific, has been ordered to change its route to the Middle East to join the USS Roosevelt. The US also plans to mobilize fighter jets from the country to the Middle East to help Israel defend against possible missile and drone attacks from Iran. All this the US is doing is not to fight a war with Iran, but to prevent Israel from fighting a big war with Iran, while also protecting Israel.

From Iran’s perspective, whether it was supporting Hamas in launching attacks on Israel or the subsequentHouthi armed forcesThe shipping crisis in the Red Sea, or the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, are essentially proxy wars, with the goal of undermining the normalization of relations between Israel and Arab countries promoted by the United States. In Iran's eyes, the death or survival of Haniyeh is not a core interest, and it is even less likely to get into a war with Israel for Hamas. Everyone should understand this. Iran's goal is to maintain its anti-Israel leadership in the Middle East, and thereby increase its bargaining chips with the United States, ultimately in order to seek a better development environment. From another perspective, as long as the United States does not give up sanctions and suppression on Iran, the situation in the Middle East will not be truly eased.

From Israel's perspective, the current primary goal is to eliminate Hamas and to undermine the reconciliation process among Palestinian factions. Therefore, it is Israel that is truly anxious about the Beijing Declaration, because as long as this declaration is implemented, Hamas will become a member of the PLO and will no longer be a "terrorist organization" as the United States and Israel say. This fundamentally undermines the justice of Israel's continued war in Gaza. From this perspective, Israel now hopes that Hamas will reject the Beijing Declaration in order to create a better public opinion environment for itself.

The goal of the Beijing Declaration is the reconciliation of all Palestinian factions, which is the foundation of the Palestinian national liberation cause, or the foundation of the two-state solution. China's contribution will never be erased. If the Beijing Declaration can be successfully implemented, it will be in line with the interests of Iran and the Palestinian factions, as well as the interests of Arab countries. There is no fundamental conflict with the interests of the United States. The only one who will suffer the most is Israel.