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Who lost this financial war?

2024-08-11

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Everyone knows that although the United States is rich, it is a country that "lives on debt". However, because U.S. debt is guaranteed by the credit of the U.S. dollar, backed by the strong national strength of the United States, and with stable returns, it is actually very popular with other countries. Even China holds a large amount of U.S. debt! Because we can't spend all the dollars in our hands! Since we can't spend them all, buying U.S. Treasury bonds is the best choice, because it can bring certain returns.

Other countries think the same way. Therefore, even though the size of US debt has soared to 35 trillion US dollars, reaching 127.9% of US GDP, there are still many willing to buy US debt. However, Americans know very well that even if they don't eat or drink for a year, they can't pay off their debts, and even paying the interest is becoming increasingly difficult. Therefore, in order to recover its blood and continue its global hegemony, the United States launched a financial war.

As early as 2018, the United States had already launched a trade war, imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods in an attempt to prevent Chinese goods from entering the US market, which was tantamount to opening the prelude to a financial war! After Biden came to power, despite his disagreement with Trump, he did not cancel Trump's tax increase policy, which shows that the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States have reached a consensus on launching a financial war against China.



After Biden came to power, he began to raise interest rates crazily, raising the interest rate of the US dollar to more than 5%. You know, many Western countries have implemented zero interest rates, and some countries have even implemented negative interest rates. However, the global hegemon, the United States, has raised the interest rate so high, which is obviously not well-intentioned.

The US's goal was to blow up the economies of other countries, especially China, and then enter the market to buy a large number of high-quality assets and make a fortune. Unexpectedly, China did not fall, but a large number of US allies fell, and even the US itself suffered a backlash.

Recently, a very magical scene has appeared in the United States. The deposit and loan interest rates of banks have actually turned upside down. Under normal circumstances, the deposit interest rate of banks will be lower than the loan interest rate. Only in this way can banks obtain the interest rate difference through lending. However, now the deposit income of American banks is higher than the loan cost! This means that banks can no longer continue to play!

What’s even more frightening is that it has spawned a new rent-seeking industry. For example, you can borrow 1 million yuan from a bank with an annual interest rate of 40,000 yuan; however, if you deposit the money immediately in the bank, the annual interest rate will be as high as 50,000 yuan, and you will make a net profit of 10,000 yuan!



In other words, you don't have to make any effort, just move your fingers, and you can get a huge profit. In fact, this is also a common method used by big capital on Wall Street in the United States to reap other countries. However, this time, the one being reaped is actually the United States itself!

This will be a disaster for American banks. Many American banks are already in trouble, among which Republic First Bank has announced its closure, becoming the sixth bank to fail in the United States since last year. If American banks continue to go bankrupt and close on a large scale, this may trigger an economic crisis in the United States.

Therefore, many experts said that if we look at it from the perspective of the times, the current financial war launched by the United States may be the last dying struggle that the United States can make on a global scale! Therefore, the United States must ensure victory at all costs! So, the question is, who wins this financial war?



One of the most classic indicators is to look at the exchange rate between various currencies and the US dollar. In the past three years, although the RMB exchange rate has depreciated from around 6.4 to a minimum of around 7.3, the overall depreciation is about 15%. However, compared with other countries, China has the smallest depreciation.

During the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries depreciated terribly! In just half a year, the depreciation rate reached 30% to 50%. The depreciation rate of the Indonesian rupiah reached more than 70%. Unexpectedly, in this round of US dollar interest rate hikes, Japan won the first prize.



From the beginning of this year to July 10, 2024, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Japanese yen has appreciated by 14.77%.



Before the United States started raising interest rates, one dollar could only be exchanged for about 100 yen, but now it can be exchanged for about 150 yen. In just over two years, the yen has depreciated by nearly 50%. This is quite rare in history! It can be said that Japan has become the biggest leek harvested by the United States!

If a country's exchange rate falls, its core assets will inevitably be bought at low prices by foreign capital, which will cause huge losses to the country. What's more serious is that if the ownership of the means of production is controlled by American capital, they will definitely go further and even want to control the lifeblood of the country and incite a color revolution. The most typical example is Ukraine, which has now lost its autonomy. Zelensky knows that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not good for Ukraine, but he is unable to get rid of the control of the United States and can only serve as a pawn of the United States.

In fact, high interest rates have also caused great harm to the United States. Because, since you can get a guaranteed profit of more than 5% by depositing money in a bank, who would take the risk of investing in real estate? Surprisingly, the economic indicators of the United States are very good.



However, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 114,000 in July, significantly lower than the market expectation of 175,000, a decrease of nearly 60,000. Looking at the data from the previous few months, it is even more ridiculous. The number of new non-farm payrolls in May was significantly revised down from 272,000 to 218,000, and more than 50,000 of them were fake, and the downward adjustment was as high as nearly 20%! The number of new non-farm payrolls in June was revised from 206,000 to 179,000, a decrease of nearly 30,000. In the three months of May, June, and July, nearly 140,000 data in the United States were fictitious! This is no longer an adjustment, but an open fraud!

Everyone will be curious, how can such important data be changed just like that? What were they doing when they were collecting the data? Is the United States so unprofessional? In fact, this is the characteristic of the "double-standard country". Even the gender of men and women can be changed at will, let alone economic data!

Although this can fool the American people, the market cannot be fooled! Recently, the United States was completely exposed. On August 5, the global market encountered a "Black Monday"! The three major U.S. stock markets opened with a big dive. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell directly by 2.7%, the S&P 500 index was not far behind, falling by 4.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index "bravely won" the championship of decline, falling by 6.3%!



Even though the Dow Jones Index has adjusted back recently, the increase in the past five trading days is very limited, and it has only touched the heel of the second plunge. The next market trend is still precarious! Let's take a look at the RMB, which rose by more than 1,000 basis points overnight. It can be said that the surge in the RMB has finally allowed us to see the dawn of victory in this financial war!



At present, the biggest turning point in the Sino-US financial war may have already appeared. Just a few days ago, the Federal Reserve announced a blockbuster news, that is, starting from June, it will slow down the pace of shrinking its balance sheet. What does this mean? In other words, the Federal Reserve has slowed down the pace of withdrawing dollars from the market, and the number of dollars in the market will no longer decrease sharply. This is the same as the role played by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, so it is seen as a "disguised interest rate cut."

Therefore, although the Fed is still stubborn and unwilling to publicly cut interest rates, it is very honest and has taken the first step to cut interest rates! This means that this round of financial war between China and the United States will end with the failure of the United States. Next, we will wait for the Fed to announce the interest rate cut! This is definitely a landmark event!