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After the first "huge earthquake" warning in history, Fumio Kishida "rarely" canceled his trip to Central Asia

2024-08-10

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According to a report by Reference News on August 9, citing Kyodo News, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held a press conference in Nagasaki on the afternoon of August 9. In view of the warning information issued by the Meteorological Agency about the Nankai Trough earthquake, Kishida announced the cancellation of his overseas visits to Central Asia and Mongolia that were originally scheduled to depart on the same day. As the Meteorological Agency called on the public to remain vigilant against major earthquakes and tsunamis in the next week or so, Kishida believed that they should stay in the country and focus on crisis management.

After a 7.1-magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near Miyazaki Prefecture, Japan on the afternoon of the 8th, the Japan Meteorological Agency believed that "the possibility of a large earthquake in the Nankai Trough is relatively higher than usual." This is also the first time that the Japan Meteorological Agency has issued such warning information since the relevant early warning mechanism began to be used. However, the Japan Meteorological Agency stated that this does not mean that a large earthquake will definitely occur in a specific period. According to CCTV News, huge earthquakes with the Pacific coast west of the East China Sea region of Japan as the epicenter have occurred repeatedly so far, and the last time was in the mid-1940s.

Kyodo News reported that Kishida originally planned to visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia from the 9th to the 12th. In Kazakhstan, he was originally scheduled to attend the first summit between Japan and the five Central Asian countries on the 9th, and was expected to issue a joint declaration on cooperation in areas such as economic assistance and decarbonization.

According to reports, Kishida was originally scheduled to fly from Nagasaki Airport to Kazakhstan on a government plane on the afternoon of the 9th, and it is rare for him to cancel the trip before departure. After the Central Asia trip was canceled, Kishida recorded a video message for the "Central Asia + Japan Business Forum" on the afternoon of the 9th local time, and then held a telephone conversation with Kazakh President Tokayev and Uzbek President Mirziyoyev.

The Diplomat magazine commented that the geopolitical importance of Central Asia has risen sharply in recent years. The region is located at the crossroads of the Eurasian trade route, is an important transit point and a growing trade hub. In addition, Central Asia is rich in natural resources, including oil, natural gas and rare earth elements. After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Central Asian countries have strengthened their diversified and balanced foreign policies, creating a new "window of opportunity" for all parties. Against this background, Japan also hopes to deepen cooperation with Central Asia.

In addition to seeking to strengthen Japan's influence in Central Asia, other analysts believe that Kishida did not actually propose a new cooperation framework between Japan and Central Asia that would fundamentally change policy goals. For Kishida, who is struggling with low approval ratings, the original Central Asian trip and the first summit between Japan and the five Central Asian countries are intended to leave a "diplomatic legacy" and prepare for the LDP presidential election in September.

According to a previous report by Xinhua News Agency, a poll released in Japan in July showed that 70% of Japanese people do not want Kishida to be re-elected as prime minister, and more than 80% of the people believe that he has not fulfilled his responsibilities as party president regarding the "black money" scandal of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party faction.