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Trump bluntly said that the president should have a say in monetary policy, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is at risk

2024-08-09

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Cailianshe reported on the 8th and 9th (Edited by Zhao Hao)On Thursday (August 8th) local time, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump said that the US president should have a certain say in central bank interest rates and monetary policy.

“As far as I’m concerned, I’ve made a lot of money, I’ve been very successful,” Trump said at a news conference at his Mar-a-Lago club. “I think that in many cases, my instincts are better than those of the Fed officials or the Fed chairman.”

In his speech, he also criticized the current Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for adjusting interest rates "sometimes too early and sometimes too late", implying that the timing of his decision-making actions was not precise enough.

Earlier this month, Trump also told another conference that high inflation and high interest rates were "destroying our country" and that if elected he would "slash interest rates."

"I'm going to get inflation down so people can buy bacon again, buy ham sandwiches again, and eat out in restaurants again," he said at the time.

Although Powell was nominated by Trump during his first term, the relationship between the two has been strained since then. In April, it was reported that Trump's allies were drafting proposals to try to weaken the independence of the Federal Reserve if Trump wins.

Obviously, these remarks and potential actions are bound to raise concerns about whether the Fed can maintain its long-touted "independence" if Trump returns to the White House later this year.

It is generally believed that the independence of the Federal Reserve helps maintain economic stability and avoid economic risks caused by political interference. If the Federal Reserve is subject to political pressure, it may lead to short-sighted monetary policy and sometimes fail to take timely action, thereby exacerbating volatility in the economy and financial markets.

In addition, as the world's most important central bank, the independence of the Federal Reserve is not only crucial to the U.S. domestic economy, but also affects global financial markets and the economic policies of other countries. Independence helps maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency and ensures the United States' leading position in international economic affairs.

In this regard, Powell has repeatedly emphasized that he promises not to let political pressure influence the Fed's decision-making.

But there is some truth to what Trump says.

For example, the current round of high inflation and high interest rates in the United States is because the Federal Reserve misjudged the situation in 2022 and believed that inflation would not continue, which resulted in the current central bank having to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time.

At the end of last month, the Federal Reserve “did not take action” despite huge external pressure to cut interest rates. After the unemployment rate triggered the “Sam Rule”, Wall Street investment banks, economists, and members of Congress accused the bank of missing the best time to cut interest rates.

(Cailianshe Zhao Hao)