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From January to July 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources launched 12 marine disaster emergency responses, issued 106 marine disaster alerts, and successfully predicted 15 marine disaster processes.

Marine disasters require prevention, and forecasting and warning are extremely important. How can we improve the accuracy of storm surge forecasts? What is my country's current marine observation capability? What impact does climate warming have on forecasting and warning? On August 6, the reporter visited the National Marine Environmental Forecast Center and interviewed relevant experts on related issues.

On July 25, in Wenling, Zhejiang, affected by this year's third typhoon "Gemi", huge waves more than ten meters high were set off in the Jinshatan sea area of ​​Shitang Town. Photo/IC photo

Numerical forecasting technology improves storm surge forecast accuracy

Reporters learned from the National Marine Environmental Forecast Center that compared with the same period in previous years, the number of typhoon storm surge disasters this year has been slightly less. It is expected that there will be 2-3 disastrous typhoon storm surges from August to September, which will mainly affect the southeast coast. The astronomical tides in the southeast coast will be relatively high during this period.

Storm surge refers to the abnormal rise of sea level caused by strong atmospheric disturbances such as strong winds and sudden changes in air pressure. Storm surge is superimposed on normal tide level, and the combined effects of wind and swells often cause a huge disaster, which is called storm surge disaster.