Hamas battalion rebuilds its combat capability, but the shortage of high-level command may become a bigger problem
2024-08-07
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This is a photo taken on August 3 of the Tulkarm refugee camp in the West Bank of the Jordan River after the Israeli military operation ended. Photo by Nidal Astayyeh, Xinhua News Agency
A recent US study shows that Israel's victory may not be as "imminent" as Netanyahu claims, and that nearly half of Hamas' military battalions in northern and central Gaza have partially rebuilt their combat capabilities. The greater dilemma Hamas is currently facing may be a shortage of senior command rather than soldiers.
According to CNN on August 5, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed on July 24 that "victory is at hand", but research data tells a different story.
Reference News quoted Deutsche Presse-Agentur as reporting on July 1 that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that the main phase of the fight against Hamas in the Gaza Strip will soon be over. Netanyahu reportedly inspected the troops deployed in the southern Gaza Strip city of Rafah. He said he saw "very impressive progress" there. In addition, Netanyahu called on the United States and Israel to "remain united" in his speech to the U.S. Congress on July 24, saying that "Israel's victory will also be a victory for the United States."
Although Israel’s brutal nine-month campaign from October 7, 2023 to date has dealt a heavy blow to Hamas, Hamas seems to have effectively utilized the dwindling local resources, rescuing remaining troops after fierce fighting and intensive bombing, replenishing its ranks in large numbers, and making a comeback.
Earlier, Han Jianwei, associate professor at the Institute of Middle East Studies of Shanghai International Studies University, mentioned in an interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that Haniyeh's death was a heavy blow to the unified command capabilities of Hamas' top leadership, but Hamas' power structure is similar to an umbrella framework, and its subordinate forces still have independent organization and combat capabilities. Hamas will identify a new leader and continue to lead the fight.
Only three Hamas battalions were completely destroyed by Israel
CNN reported that a joint study by the Critical Threat Project (CTP) of the American Enterprise Institute, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and CNN showed that Israel's offensive against Hamas used heavy bombing as the main means of warfare and lacked a post-war plan, which allowed Hamas to make a comeback. There is evidence that in some key hot spots, Hamas's military has rebuilt its combat capabilities after being hit.
Hamas' military wing is called the Qassam Brigades, which are divided into 24 battalions. According to CNN, as of July 1, only three of the 24 battalions were completely destroyed by the Israeli army and lost their combat capability. Another 13 battalions were hit hard and can only carry out sporadic guerrilla attacks. The remaining eight battalions still retain strong combat effectiveness and are able to carry out military missions against Israeli soldiers on the ground in Gaza. The report also stated that 16 battalions in central and northern Gaza were the main targets of Israel's attack, but in the past six months, seven of the 16 battalions have been reorganized and rebuilt their combat capabilities.
"The Israelis claim they have cleared certain places, but they have not completely cleared those areas, nor have they fundamentally defeated these fighters," Brian Carter, CTP Middle East project manager, told the media. "(Hamas) is ready to fight and wants to fight." Retired US Army Colonel Peter Mansoor also said: "If the Hamas battalions were really basically wiped out, the Israeli army would not still be fighting." He believes that Netanyahu's remarks have been proven wrong by reality, and "Hamas' ability to reorganize its combat forces has not weakened."
According to research by CTP and ISW, Hamas has two main ways to rebuild its forces: the first is to regroup the Qassam Brigades and merge several reduced combat squads into combat-capable battalions; the second is to recruit new soldiers and use the explosive materials left by the Israeli army to make new weapons. However, since the Qassam Brigades' camps have been basically destroyed, it is unlikely that Hamas will be able to effectively train new soldiers.
The IDF rejected the study's findings, which used the US military's definition rather than the Israeli military's to describe the status of Hamas forces, saying most Hamas battalions were not ready for war, "which means they are unable to function as a military framework".
Hamas leaders who have been repeatedly attacked
CNN reported that Hamas has been claiming to have recruited "thousands" of new fighters since the start of this round of conflict, a claim that was recognized by an Israeli source close to the military, but he believes that it will be much more difficult for Hamas to replace dead commanders. A retired senior Israeli official said: "Hamas' biggest difficulty is not at the soldier level, but at the commander level. Some commanders are difficult to replace."
In the past two months, Hamas's top brass has been hit more frequently. In addition to the assassination of Hamas's political bureau leader Ismail Haniya in Iran on July 31, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Israeli military confirmed on August 1 that the head of Hamas' military department and leader of the Qassam Brigades, Mohammed Deif, died in an Israeli airstrike on the Khan Yunis area in the Gaza Strip on July 13. Also killed was Rafa Salama, commander of Hamas' Khan Yunis Brigade. On August 5, local time, the Israeli military announced that it had killed two more Hamas officials, namely Jaber Aziz, commander of Hamas' Sheikh Radwan Battalion, and Abed Al-Zeriei, head of Hamas's economic department in the Gaza Strip.
Last October, shortly after the outbreak of the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) reported and analyzed that there were seven core members in the Hamas leadership. Among them, the Israeli military said in March this year that Marwan Issa, deputy leader of Hamas's Qassam Brigades, had been killed in an airstrike. Haniya and Dave also died recently, so that the seven core members of Hamas that the BBC claimed in October last year are now only four.
The four former Hamas leaders include Yahya Sinwar, Khaled Meshaal, Abdullah Barghouti and Mahmoud Zahar. Sinwar is the leader of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, but has not appeared in public since the current round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is said that he may be commanding military operations in a bunker underground in Gaza. Meshaal led Hamas from 2004 to 2017. Reuters reported that he is expected to succeed Haniyeh and become the new supreme leader of Hamas.
According to a Reuters report on August 1, Hamas's current senior leaders also include Sinwar's deputy Khalil Al-Hayya and Mohammad Shabana. Shabana is one of the only remaining senior and experienced military commanders of Hamas, leading the armed forces in southern Rafah. In addition, Hamas has not confirmed the death of Issa, and the senior Hamas official nicknamed "Shadow Man" may still be alive.
The Paper reporter Nan Boyi and intern Wang Qihan
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