Ukraine officially received F-16 fighter jets. Is their greatest value to the Ukrainian army to boost morale?
2024-08-06
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Ukraine officially unveiled the F-16 fighter jets provided by NATO countries.
According to Xinhua News Agency, Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media on August 4 to confirm that the F-16 fighter jets donated by other countries have arrived in Ukraine and put into use.
The Economist published an article saying that although the Ukrainian army currently has a small number of F-16s and cannot defeat the Russian Air Force for the time being, this is a powerful symbolic start. The arrival of the F-16 fighter jets marks the beginning of Ukraine's establishment of a NATO-standard air force, and it connects Ukraine to the F-16's developed supply chain system.
F-16 fighter jets equipped by the Ukrainian Air Force.
Ukrainian F-16s have already joined the war
Zelensky said that Ukrainian pilots have begun to use F-16 fighter jets to participate in the war. But he did not disclose the number of such fighter jets that Ukraine has received. Zelensky expressed his gratitude to Denmark, the Netherlands, the United States and other countries. He also stressed that the number of F-16 fighter jets Ukraine has received from other countries and the number of Ukrainian pilots trained overseas are still insufficient.
Zelensky described this as "a new stage in the development of the Ukrainian Air Force". He said that Ukraine has done a lot of work for the army to transition to Western aviation combat standards. "We often heard the word 'impossible', but we still achieved our ambitions and defense needs. It has become a reality and a reality in our skies."
The Interfax news agency of Ukraine previously quoted foreign media as saying that the first batch of 10 F-16 fighter jets donated by NATO countries had been delivered to Ukraine at the end of July, and Ukraine is expected to receive another 10 F-16 fighter jets before the end of the year. It is reported that 25 Ukrainian pilots have completed all flight training courses for F-16 fighter jets and have been certified to perform combat missions.
It is said that Zelensky attended the F-16 commissioning ceremony, which was held at Vasilkov Airport about 40 kilometers west of Kiev, Ukraine. Two F-16s equipped with missiles appeared at the commissioning ceremony.
As NATO's heaviest military aid to Ukraine since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the F-16 fighter jets have attracted much attention. In May last year, Western countries announced the establishment of an international alliance to help Ukraine purchase F-16 fighter jets.
Reuters said the aid was supported by Denmark and the Netherlands, with Denmark pledging to donate 19 F-16 fighter jets and the Netherlands pledging to provide 24. In addition, Norway also plans to start delivering 6 F-16 fighter jets this year, while Belgium has pledged to donate 30 aircraft. However, the specific delivery schedule has not yet been fully clarified.
The Ukrainian F-16 now mainly uses AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles and AIM-9 close-range air-to-air missiles.
The F-16 is one of the important air equipment in NATO's air force. It can carry a variety of weapons such as air-to-air missiles, air-to-ground missiles and guided bombs, and has strong multi-purpose combat capabilities. Zelensky has high hopes for these F-16 fighters. He said on the social platform X: "The F-16 fighters will enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities and help us better protect the Ukrainian people from Russia's brutal attacks."
"From the photos of the F-16 fighter jets released by Ukraine, the Ukrainian F-16s are now mainly equipped with AIM-120 medium-range air-to-air missiles and AIM-9 close-range air-to-air missiles, and have added advanced helmet sights and self-defense systems," military expert Han Dong told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn). "This is an air superiority mount that performs air defense combat missions. It may mainly perform rear air defense missions to intercept incoming subsonic cruise missiles and drones."
"There are reports that the Ukrainian F-16s have been carrying out air patrol missions in western Ukraine, including Odessa and Lviv," said Han Dong.
The Economist published an article saying that the F-16 fighter jets can reduce the "rampant" Russian Su-34 fighter jets on the Ukrainian front. Russia launches more than a hundred crude but effective glide bombs from its airspace every day. Nico Lange, former chief of staff of the German Ministry of Defense, believes that the primary task of the F-16 is to force Russian pilots to stay at a farther distance, otherwise they will face the risk of being shot down. The AIM-120D is an all-weather missile equipped with an autonomous active radar with a range of up to 180 kilometers, but if the target performs evasive maneuvers, the missile needs to turn and slow down, which will shorten its range.
Additionally, F-16s could use their lower-cost, heat-seeking AIM-9X missiles to intercept cruise missiles that damage Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. Their 20mm six-barrel Gatling guns should be effective against Russia's slow-moving Geran suicide drones. F-16s could also fire Harpoon anti-ship missiles at the (remaining) ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Douglas Barry, an air power expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the main immediate value of the F-16 fighters is to boost morale. Initially in small numbers, the Ukrainians will use these fighters cautiously to avoid losses, which may become a propaganda victory for Russia. But these fighters should begin to play a role gradually.
How will the Ukrainian army deploy F-16s?
With the official arrival of the F-16, how the Ukrainian army will deploy these "treasures" and how the Russian army will seek out and destroy these F-16s, which are regarded as "thorns in the eyes", have become hot topics of discussion outside.
It is generally analyzed that as NATO's heavy military aid weapon to Ukraine, Russia will try every means to "get rid of it as soon as possible", while Ukraine will do everything possible to ensure that the F-16 is not destroyed, and wait for an opportunity to use the aircraft to shoot down Russia's most advanced Su-35 or Su-34 fighter jets to prove the value of the F-16 to the Ukrainian army.
Russian President Vladimir Putin once said that even if Western countries delivered F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it would not change the situation on the battlefield. Russia also sent a note to NATO countries on the issue of arms supply to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that any materials containing weapons to Ukraine would become Russia's "legitimate targets."
Justin Bronk, a military expert at the Royal United Services Institute, believes that so far, the Ukrainian Air Force has relied heavily on "dispersed operations" to ensure that its fighters will not be destroyed. He explained that by moving fighters irregularly within bases or between bases, it is difficult for Russian air strikes to find targets. "If Russia really launches an air strike, it may only hit an empty asphalt road or grass."
But if Ukraine wants to ensure that F-16 fighters can take off and fight, this situation may have to change. Because F-16 fighters have high requirements for airport supporting facilities, such as completely flat runways and clearing nearby small stones and other debris to avoid the risk of them being sucked into the engine. However, Bronk said that any attempt by Ukraine to improve the infrastructure of existing bases will be detected by Russian reconnaissance forces and lead to subsequent strikes.
It is reported that during the dispersed deployment of the F-16s equipped by the Ukrainian army, in addition to the country's own air force bases and temporary bases (highways that can be used for take-off and landing of fighter jets), they may also be temporarily deployed at air force bases in Poland or Romania.
The Russian newspaper "Moscow Komsomolets" reported on July 11 that it is not clear who will fly the remaining aircraft. Retired NATO pilots may wear Ukrainian uniforms and strike Russian territory under the yellow and blue flag. Military experts said that if Ukrainian F-16 fighters really take off from an airport in Romania, drop bombs on Russia and then return to the airport, then the airport will become a legitimate target for the Russian army.
Military expert Alexi Sukonkin said that one of the targets is likely to be the 86th Air Force Base in Fetesti, Romania, "where (Ukraine's) first batch of F-16 fighters are stationed, and they will launch combat operations against Russia from here."
But if a direct military strike against air bases in Poland or Romania would run the risk of the war spreading to NATO countries, Russia must seriously assess this possibility.
In order to further protect the limited number of F-16s, the Ukrainian army may also use deception tactics. The New York Times previously stated that the Ukrainian army used ancient deception tactics to confuse Russian reconnaissance forces. Ignat said that the Ukrainian Air Force has effectively adopted deception tactics, such as using model aircraft of the same scale as bait. In order to produce a realistic camouflage effect as much as possible, they also need to be moved from time to time to protect the Ukrainian Air Force's existing fighter jets and the upcoming F-16 fighter jets.
In order to counter the F-16 fighter jets, Russia has stepped up its strikes against Ukrainian air bases since early July, attempting to disrupt the Ukrainian army's deployment through preventive strikes. The Russian army used drones and ballistic missiles to launch large-scale air strikes on several air bases in the rear of Ukraine, including Milhorod in central Ukraine, Starokonstantinov in the west, and Doldyntsevo Air Base in the Dnipro region. The Russian army claimed to have destroyed several Ukrainian fighter jets in the air strikes, and military analysts said that the Russian army's more likely intention was to target the infrastructure of the air base, such as runways and storage facilities.
"Destroying the aircraft on the ground is the best way to weaken the F-16 threat. In the future, the Russian army will use various means to track and study the deployment of the Ukrainian F-16, and use the strike advantages of the Russian army's long-range missiles and drones to continue to suppress the F-16. The 'battle' between the two sides will continue to escalate." Han Dong believes.
Thepaper.cn reporter Xie Ruiqiang
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