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Senior Fed officials "put out fire": Don't panic, don't worry about employment, and there is no recession

2024-08-06

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After the Japanese stock market collapsed and the European stock market plummeted, the US stock market could no longer bear it.

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,000 points to a two-month low. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 small-cap indexes all fell more than 3%. The small-cap index hit its lowest level in nearly a month. All sectors of the U.S. stock market closed lower, with the technology sector performing the worst and closing down 3.8%.

As investors' concerns about the slowing U.S. economy and weak employment deepened, panic sentiment was high, and the overnight "fear index" VIX soared 181% to 65.73, the highest since the outbreak of the epidemic in March 2020.

As investors were in panic, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both stepped in to put out the fire and calm investors.

Goolsby stressed thatThe July nonfarm payrolls report is just “a piece of data”. This employment data was weaker than expected, but it is not a recession yet.

The Fed's job is very straightforward, which is to maximize employment, stable prices, and financial stability. That's what we're going to do, and if there's any deterioration, we're going to address it.

The Fed is not responding to a set of economic data, but keeping its options open in terms of monetary policy actions. Because we still have more information before the next meeting. But if our economy is not overheating, we should not actually tighten or restrict.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who is also a voter this year, also pointed out that U.S. employment remains solid and will wait and see more data before taking action.FOMC will be open to rate cuts at next meeting

Federal Reserve officials will do whatever it takes to achieve the central bank’s price stability and employment goals, but we take the big picture into account and consider all information before taking action.

If we react to just one piece of economic data, we will almost always be wrong, and the increase in the unemployment rate in July was largely due to temporary layoffs and an oversupply of workers in the economy, especially immigration, rather than widespread permanent layoffs.

Behind the non-farm report, we have more confidence that economic growth is slowing down, but it will not fall off a cliff.

Daly also noted that Fed officials are watching for signs of further slowing in the labor market and a potential pick-up in inflation, and are waiting for more data before supporting rate hikes.

In order to maintain a balance between employment and inflation, interest rates need to be adjusted. Of course, everyone wants to know when and how much interest rates will be adjusted? This is where the value of collecting more information lies.

Before the September interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve will be able to collect August non-farm payroll data and July consumer price index to prepare for the next interest rate policy changes.