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Local economic data for the first half of the year have been released one after another. Faced with the increasing downward pressure on the economy since the beginning of this year, most provinces have not yet achieved the growth targets set at the beginning of the year. Entering the second half of the year, various regions have held intensive mid-year economic work meetings to analyze and study the current economic situation, take targeted countermeasures and measures, and strive to achieve annual goals.

The downward pressure on the economy is increasing

At present, the economic data of 31 provinces in the first half of the year have been released. Compared with the first quarter, the economic growth rate of most provinces in the first half of the year has declined. Among them, the growth rate of 12 provinces in the first half of the year, including Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Shandong, Gansu, Jilin, Zhejiang, Fujian, Beijing, Guizhou, Tianjin and Shanghai, basically reached the growth target set at the beginning of the year.

The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30 pointed out that the adverse effects brought about by the current changes in the external environment are increasing, domestic effective demand is insufficient, economic operations are showing differentiation, there are still many risks and hidden dangers in key areas, and there are pains in the transformation from old to new growth drivers.

According to the data of 31 provinces, 16 provinces have a growth rate higher than the national average, and two provinces have a growth rate equal to the national average. Among them, Inner Mongolia (6.2%), Tibet (6.1%) and Chongqing (6.1%) have a growth rate of more than 6%, leading the country. However, it is worth noting that there are still 13 provinces with a growth rate lower than the national average, of which 3 provinces have a growth rate lower than 2%.

Judging from the data from various places,Tertiary IndustryThe growth rates of added value and consumption were generally lower thanGDPGrowth rate: the tertiary industry accounts for the largest proportion of the three industries in GDP. Its low growth rate has become an important factor dragging down economic growth. Consumption growth lags behind GDP growth, reflecting that insufficient demand is the main problem facing the current economy.

For example, Jiangsu's GDP in the first half of the year was 6332.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% at constant prices, ranking among the top three in the country.Secondary industryThe added value was 2,770.97 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 3,388.04 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%. The service industry accounted for 53.5% of GDP and its contribution to economic growth was 44.8%.

While the secondary industry grew by 7.1%, the tertiary industry grew by only 4.8%. Yao Huarong, director of the Service Industry Statistics Division of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, explained that in the first half of the year, the economic operation of the service industry in Jiangsu Province was generally stable, but problems such as insufficient short-term demand and weak expectations still existed.

Not only that, from the perspective of consumption, in the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods in Jiangsu province reached 2,417.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, which is also lower than the GDP growth rate.

Xu Guo, director of the Trade and Foreign Economic Statistics Department of the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, explained that since the beginning of this year, residents' consumption has shifted from post-epidemic recovery to a stage of sustained expansion, and the province's consumer goods market has generally operated smoothly. However, it should also be noted that residents' consumption capacity and willingness need to be further improved, sales of traditional fuel vehicles have declined significantly, and the operating pressure of physical commerce is still relatively large.

Judging from these data, weak expectations and insufficient demand have become the key issues restricting economic growth. It is in this context that all regions are facing the pressure of stabilizing growth. Not only that, the growth targets set by various regions this year are mostly "jumping up high" and aiming to achieve a growth rate comparable to last year.

The meeting of the Standing Committee of the Anhui Provincial Party Committee and the Sixth Meeting of the Provincial Party Committee's Finance and Economics Committee pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the province's economic operation has stabilized and rebounded, quality and efficiency have steadily improved, new quality productivity has accelerated, and the overall social situation is harmonious and stable. However, the foundation for sustained economic improvement is still unstable, and the pressure to complete the annual goals and tasks is still relatively high.

The Standing Committee of the Sichuan Provincial Party Committee emphasized that we should look for more reasons and solutions in our work, sort out and analyze the existing, variable and incremental stocks, truly have a clear understanding and a plan for response, focus on the target and make precise efforts, go all out to speed up progress and make up for losses, and unswervingly achieve the annual goals and tasks.

Boost consumption and expand effective demand

Regarding the current pressure, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee emphasized that these are problems in development and transformation. We must not only enhance risk awareness and bottom-line thinking and respond proactively, but also maintain strategic determination and firm confidence in development.

So, where is the solution to the problem of insufficient demand?

The meeting proposed that domestic demand should be expanded with a focus on boosting consumption. The focus of economic policies should be shifted more towards benefiting people's livelihood and promoting consumption. Residents' income should be increased through multiple channels, the consumption capacity and willingness of middle- and low-income groups should be enhanced, service consumption should be used as an important means to expand and upgrade consumption, and support should be given to consumption in culture, tourism, elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping.

Judging from the economic work conferences held in various places, tapping consumption potential and creating new growth points for consumption are the focus of local policies. At the same time, promoting the implementation of major policies to promote consumption is also a major means.

The Standing Committee of the Jiangsu Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Party Committee's Finance and Economics Committee emphasized that we must adapt to the changes in the situation and laws, and strive to expand consumption and promote investment. To expand consumption, we must focus on adapting to and guiding the needs of the masses, deeply tap the "rich mine" of service consumption, increase the supply of high-quality goods in rural areas, and improve the convenience of logistics services. To promote investment, we must continue to focus on the construction of major provincial projects and key private investment industrial projects, and form more physical workload. We must make every effort to implement policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and old-for-new consumer goods, and further stimulate the endogenous growth momentum of the economy.

The Guangxi Autonomous Region Party Committee and Government's 2024 Mid-Year Work Conference emphasized that the second half of the year is the golden period for construction and active consumption, and is a critical period for promoting the transformation of Guangxi's development trend and consolidating the economic recovery. We must accurately dispatch and grasp operations, overcome difficulties and grasp investment, innovate scenarios to promote consumption, accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system, and make significant progress in effectively improving quality and reasonably increasing quantity.

Among them, expanding cultural and tourism consumption is a key point in expanding consumption, and the effect is obvious. Taking Sichuan as an example, in the first half of the year, the demand for holiday travel was strong, the travel experience of residents was improved, and the consumption of related services such as catering was growing well. By consumption type, in the first half of the year, the province's retail sales of goods reached 1,141.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%; catering revenue reached 184.22 billion yuan, an increase of 11.0%.

Therefore, all regions have made the promotion of cultural tourism consumption a key policy implementation focus, using cultural tourism to drive the development of related industries. The Yunnan Provincial Party Committee Standing Committee emphasized that it is necessary to vigorously promote open development, effectively expand domestic demand, continuously tap the potential for foreign trade development, use tourism to drive consumption expansion and upgrading, and support the consumption of services such as elderly care, childcare, and housekeeping.

The Fujian Provincial Party Committee's first half work conference proposed that we should focus on expanding new market space and further tap the potential of domestic and foreign demand. We should promote consumption by promoting both new and old products, further promote the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones, continue to expand bulk consumption, implement the ten major actions of the consumption promotion year, create more new consumption scenarios, carefully carry out cultural and tourism promotion activities, and further promote the formation of a holiday consumption boom. We should expand investment by combining long-term and short-term, give play to the driving effect of policy investment and the important role of private investment, and form more physical workload.

The Standing Committee of the Jiangxi Provincial Party Committee emphasized that we must actively seize major opportunities, firmly grasp the country's "two heavy" and "two new" policies and measures, strengthen research and docking, take positive and proactive actions, and strive to transform policy dividends into actual results in promoting reform and development.

In fact, the implementation effects of a series of policies such as old-for-new are gradually emerging. Du Guangquan, director of the Trade and Economics Department of the Sichuan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, explained that as the old-for-new policy and implementation details of the car exchange policy are gradually implemented, the policy effect is gradually released. In June, the retail sales of automobiles of units above the designated size in Sichuan Province reached 24.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, and the growth rate turned from negative to positive, up 18.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Regarding how to expand domestic demand, Lan Jianping, deputy director of the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Planning Institute, suggested that, first, improve and innovate scenarios. Provide policy support for the construction of facilities such as battery replacement, new energy storage, hydrogen refueling and parking lots to release the consumption potential of new energy vehicles; create a number of national historical classic industries and experience platforms, and transform the "national trend" and "Z generation" new youth's pursuit of individuality, emotional value and other needs into a "new market". Second, make a good combination of old-for-new. Through the government's contribution, the platform's contribution, and the company's concession, a better subsidy synergy for consumption in key areas such as automobiles, home furnishings, and tourism can be formed.