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On August 5, the Asian market was shaken, and the three major Hong Kong stock indexes closed down. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.46% to 16,698.36 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 1.36% to 3,339.42 points; and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.64% to 5,876.64 points. The full-day turnover of Hong Kong stocks reached HK$135.015 billion, and southbound funds net bought HK$1.387 billion. Since the beginning of this year, southbound funds have accumulated net purchases of HK$427.251 billion.

In terms of sectors and industries: energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors saw the largest declines, core technology stocks suffered setbacks, and consumer staples rose against the market trend.

Beer stocks rose against the trend

On August 5, beer stocks rose against the market trend. Budweiser Asia Pacific rose 3.00%; Tsingtao Brewery rose 2.05%; and China Resources Beer rose 1.86%.

Budweiser Asia Pacific stock price trend

Source: Wind.

Despite today's rise against the market, beer stocks are still under pressure in the long run. Since the beginning of the year, Budweiser Asia Pacific's stock price has fallen by nearly 30%.

Haitong International published a report stating that in July, the domestic beer industry's revenue was about 20.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. From January to July 2024, the domestic beer industry's cumulative revenue was 116.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. Since July, beer sales have entered the peak season, with continued high temperatures in many parts of the north, the Paris Olympics and the opening of beer festivals in many parts of the country promoting beer consumption. Due to the low base in July last year, the sales of major manufacturers in July are expected to improve significantly year-on-year.

Hong Kong stocks of the "three oil barrels" fell

On August 5, the Hong Kong-listed "three oil giants" fell. China National Offshore Oil Corporation fell 6.37%, PetroChina fell 5.43%, and Sinopec fell 2.79%.

Some brokerages have published reports stating that the recent oil price pullback is based on the following reasons. First, the market is worried that major overseas economies, including the United States, will enter a recession. Second, the medium-term oil and gas supply may increase after the US election. Third, in the long run, against the backdrop of China's energy transition, global demand for oil may weaken. Some brokerages expect that the market will still trade recession expectations before late August 2024. However, some brokerages believe that the current oil price has fully priced in the risks.

UBS: Japan's economic growth forecast lowered

Masamichi Adachi, chief Japanese economist at UBS Investment Bank, recently expressed his opinion that the Bank of Japan's "hawkish" stance exceeded expectations. He expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October this year. After the rate hike, the policy rate will reach 0.5%. Masamichi Adachi said in a research report that the Bank of Japan recently raised the policy rate from 0.0~0.1% to 0.25%, which exceeded the expectations of most market participants. In addition to the rate hike, the details of quantitative tightening have also been determined. UBS expects the Bank of Japan to raise the policy rate to 0.5% in October. Unless the economic survey data deteriorates, UBS expects the Bank of Japan to remain on hold in December 2024 and January 2025. If most people achieve high salary growth after the spring salary negotiations at the beginning of next year, the Bank of Japan will raise the policy rate to 0.75% in March 2025. In June 2025, it may raise the policy rate to 1.0%. Compared with market pricing and other Bank of Japan watchers, UBS's policy rate hike forecast is more hawkish.

In addition, UBS expects the Bank of Japan's final interest rate to be 1.0%.

UBS believes that the Japanese economy will return to normal. However, despite the increase in disposable income of Japanese residents, real consumption continued to decline as of the end of the first quarter of this year. If the rising trend of savings rate from 2015 to 2019 is repeated, consumption growth will not be as fast as income growth. UBS has lowered its forecast for Japan's economic growth. The bank said that it will be difficult for Japan to achieve its real GDP growth target of 1% in 2025 and 2026.

Editor: Joey

Audit: Wooden Fish

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