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Interface News reporter | Li Kewen
Jiemian News Editor | Xie Xin

The price of the domestically produced bivalent human papillomavirus vaccine (i.e., bivalent HPV vaccine) is almost the same as a cup of milk tea.

On August 2, the Shandong Provincial Public Resources Electronic Trading Platform disclosed the Shandong Provincial Bivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) Vaccine Procurement Transaction Announcement for School-age Girls in 2024. Among them, Watson Bio's subsidiary Zerun Bio won the bid for 1.0162 million doses at 27.9465 million yuan. Based on this calculation, the winning bid price for a single dose of the bivalent HPV vaccine has dropped to 27.5 yuan.

Image source: Shandong Provincial Public Resources Trading Platform

There is no sign of the price war for bivalent HPV vaccines ending. Instead, it is becoming more and more intense. Overall, HPV vaccines are not selling well in China.

Jiemian News reported that Merck's HPV vaccine sales in the Chinese market declined in the second quarter, while Watson Biopharma and Wantai Biopharma also engaged in a fierce price war in the centralized bidding and procurement of bivalent HPV vaccine drugs.

Initially, the price range of the bivalent HPV vaccine in the centralized bidding and procurement was 329-344 yuan per dose.

As a follower, Watson Bio took the lead in the raid. In September 2022, the results of the human papillomavirus vaccine procurement project announced on the Fujian Provincial Government Procurement Network showed that Zerun Bio, a subsidiary of Watson Bio, won the bid with 142 million yuan. Calculated based on the purchase quantity of 580,000 doses in the procurement bidding documents, the bidding price of Watson Bio's bivalent HPV vaccine is about 245 yuan per dose. This is 25.53% lower than the pricing of Wantai Bio's bivalent HPV vaccine Xinkening.

At that time, Wantai Bio did not feel threatened. In response to investor questions in June 2022, Wantai Bio said that the company's sales of the bivalent HPV vaccine Xinkening exceeded 10 million doses, and government procurement accounted for 1.5%.

The market trend changed a month later. In July 2022, the National Health Commission stated that it would focus on promoting free HPV vaccination in areas where conditions are ripe. The market capacity of the bivalent HPV vaccine included in the government's centralized procurement began to gradually expand.

Since then, Wantai Biological has started to fight back. In August 2023, in the procurement of human papillomavirus vaccines for girls of appropriate age in Guangdong Province, Wantai Canghai Biological's bivalent HPV vaccine won the bid at a price of 116 yuan per dose, a reduction of nearly 65%.

Since then, the two sides have expanded their territory in different provinces and cities at a price of one hundred yuan.

For example, when answering investors' questions in 2023, Wantai Biological emphasized that since the company's bivalent HPV vaccine was launched, it has successively won bids for government projects in Guangdong, Hebei, Shandong, Sichuan, Chongqing, Jiangsu, Hainan and other places.

In its 2023 annual report, Watson Bio stated that it fully supports the implementation of the country's "Action Plan to Accelerate the Elimination of Cervical Cancer (2023-2030)", focusing on the government's people-oriented procurement market and has achieved substantial breakthroughs.

In 2024, the price war has intensified. First, Wantai Biopharma reduced the price of the bivalent HPV vaccine to less than 100 yuan. In March 2024, according to the Jiangsu Government Procurement Network, Wantai Biopharma's bivalent HPV vaccine won the bid at a price of 86 yuan per dose, and a total of nearly 500,000 doses were purchased.

One month later, Watson Bio responded. According to an announcement released by the Hainan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention on April 28, Watson Bio's subsidiary Zerun Bio won the bid for the 2024 Hainan Province HPV vaccine procurement project for girls of appropriate age. The total bid amount was 6.741 million yuan, the supply quantity was 107,000 doses, and the unit price was 63 yuan per dose.

Now, Watson Bio has proactively reduced the price of the bivalent HPV vaccine to 27.5 yuan, which is almost cheaper than a full cup of high-end milk tea.

The Huimin procurement market that Watson Bio and Wantai Bio competed for was once predicted to have broad prospects, but now the market size has been greatly reduced due to the price war between the two parties. But this is more in line with the positioning of the National Action Plan for Accelerating the Elimination of Cervical Cancer (2023-2030).

The people-friendly procurement market consists of the existing market of women aged 9-14 who are eligible for vaccination and the incremental market of new women who are eligible for vaccination.

Interface News has compiled industry research reports from major securities firms and consulting companies, and based on the forecast of 315 million women suitable for vaccination in 2020, it is predicted that from 2021 to 2031, in the existing market, the number of females aged 9-14 who are suitable for vaccination will be approximately 47 million; in the incremental market, the incremental market of newly entrants into the vaccination-age population will be approximately 85 million.

HPV vaccine is administered in a fixed number of 2 doses.

According to the Global Strategy for Accelerating the Elimination of Cervical Cancer issued by the World Health Organization (WHO), the goal is for 90% of girls to complete HPV vaccination before the age of 15. China also actively supports the WHO's goal of 90% of girls completing the full course of HPV vaccination before the age of 15 by 2030. That is, 90% is the final vaccination rate.

It is predicted that from 2021 to 2031, the total market size for women aged 9-14 who are eligible for vaccination will be approximately 237.6 million injections.

If calculated based on the initial purchase price of bivalent HPV vaccine at 329 yuan per injection, the HPV market size for females aged 9-14 years old who are eligible for vaccination will be approximately RMB 78.17 billion from 2021 to 2031.

In fact, the government's bid price of 329 yuan per shot was too ideal and could not be popularized nationwide. Now, Watson Bio has raised the bid price to 2.75 billion yuan, which is more reasonable. This price range is also close to the purchase price of immunization program vaccines.

Based on the latest winning bid price of 27.5 yuan, it is predicted that from 2021 to 2031, the total size of the HPV market for females aged 9-14 who are eligible for vaccination will be approximately 6.534 billion yuan.

From now on, it will depend on how Wantai Biological and Watson Biopharma divide the government procurement market share of less than 7 billion.