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Stop fighting! The US and Russia are exchanging prisoners. Maybe Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate a ceasefire!

Text | Haishangke

On August 1, local time, the so-called "Seven-Nation Prisoner Swap" was held in the Turkish capital, during which 26 detainees from seven countries including Russia and the United States were exchanged.

A Russian plane is about to land at Esenboga Airport in Ankara, Turkey, on August 1, local time.

Specifically, it is——

Russia released 16 prisoners explicitly requested by the West, including several Americans and Germans, as well as seven Russian opponents.

In this way, the United States coordinated with Germany, Poland, Norway and Slovenia to release a total of 8 Russian prisoners.

From the prisoner exchange list, we can see that the total number of people released by Russia is 23, while the total number of people released by the West is only 8. Of course, among those released by Russia, there are also Russian oppositionists, that is, Russians, but this release clearly reflects that Russia and the West have a consensus that these Russian oppositionists are all Westerners.

Uncle Hai wants to say that, in name it is the "Seven-Nation Prisoner Swap", but in reality the main decision-makers for the prisoner swap are none other than Russia and the United States.

1

Due to the geographical distance between Türkiye and Russia and the United States, it can also be seen from media reports:

Those released by the West and heading to Russia first arrived at Moscow's Vnukovo-2 Airport.

Afterwards, those released by the Russian side flew to Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland, USA.

There is one similarity between the US and Russia in the prisoner exchange, that is, the presidents of both countries went to the airport to greet them. Of course, there is also a slight difference, that is, on the US side, not only President Biden went, but also Vice President Harris went!

What's the secret?

In fact, a slip of the tongue by Harris during a memorial service in Texas on July 29, local time, was very telling. At that time, Harris accidentally called herself "President", and then smiled and changed her words to "Vice President".

Compared to Biden, Harris is much younger. Compared to Biden, who often makes slips of the tongue and is likely to make real slips of the tongue, how real and fake is Harris' slip of the tongue? Anyway, on July 21, Biden announced his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election and supported Harris for the Democratic presidential nomination. Because of this, Biden is now in the garbage time of his presidency——

Waiting for the first time point, that is, after the US presidential election in November, the new president will be determined;

Then wait for the handover to the new president in January next year.

Biden and Harris personally went to the airport to welcome those who returned as a result of the prisoner exchange

It is not difficult to see from this that Harris is not just the Vice President of the United States, accompanying President Biden to the airport to welcome the returnees! To a large extent, she is already a "practitioner president." Although Biden was still the speaker in the White House speech on the prisoner exchange issue on August 1, Harris clearly heard reporters at the airport asking Biden questions that were quite aggressive!

For example, a reporter asked Biden: "You have publicly said before that you will ensure that all tasks are completed during this presidency. After all, you are no longer running for the next US president. Can you complete it?"

Biden slowly raised his left hand to his chest, as if listening, then stepped forward and slowly said something. However, the TV broadcast did not show what Biden said.

"This is Biden's diplomatic achievement less than six months before he leaves office, and it is also his diplomatic legacy. With less than 100 days to go before the US presidential election, the 'prisoner swap' has already affected the campaign." The relevant media analyzed. Obviously, Biden has gained the reputation of "achieving a legacy", but the one who will truly inherit his legacy is Harris next to him!

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) went to the airport to meet the

Putin is different.

After all, he had just begun his latest term as president.

According to a report by China News Network, Putin told the released personnel at the airport: "First of all, I would like to congratulate you on your return to the motherland. I want to thank you for your loyalty to your oath, duty and the motherland. The motherland will always remember you."

Putin also said that the relevant personnel would be awarded national medals.

2

I don’t want to go into detail about the specific prisoner exchange list between Russia, the United States, and even the West, but there is one thing -

This is the largest prisoner exchange between the United States and Russia since the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.Since President Biden believes that the prisoner exchange is "a diplomatic feat" and said that "deals like this require difficult decisions," it can be seen that he is quite satisfied with his work and wants to give it full marks.

In fact, looking back at reports over the past few years, we can see that the United States and Russia have discussed the issue of prisoner exchange for quite some time. US President's National Security Advisor Sullivan even said that the US had been working to exchange Alexei Navalny, but in the end, Navalny "died in a prison in the Arctic" in February this year.

Navalny has died in a prison in the Arctic. Photo: Data

From Sullivan's words, we can actually get a lot of information. For example, Navalny is a Russian. Of course, he is a Russian oppositionist, but doesn't he often take photos with the Russian flag as the background? But the US side asked the Russian side to hand over Navalny to the US side.

So, what nationality is Navalny?

This question is indeed difficult to answer, and I don’t think Sullivan can answer it.

A better answer is -

The United States and Russia are now able to reach a prisoner exchange. For the United States, there are two noteworthy backgrounds:

First, the US presidential election is about to take place. Although Biden has withdrawn from the election, Harris will still be elected. The Democratic camp hopes to use the advantage of being in charge of the White House to quickly reach a prisoner exchange. After the prisoner exchange was successful, former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump said that if he were in office, he would ensure the release of the prisoners "without giving up anything." Biden responded by saying, then why didn't Trump do something during his presidency?

Trump appears at the Republican National Convention Photo: IC Photo

Second, even if Harris from the Democratic Party is elected as the US president in the future, will she definitely implement Biden's policy on the Russia-Ukraine issue unchanged? Actually, not necessarily! Recently, when Harris met with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the United States, she expressed the hope that Israel would stop its military operations as soon as possible. It is not difficult to see that once Harris comes to power, the US policy on the Russia-Ukraine conflict will also be variable.

3

There is another big background to the prisoner exchange between the US and Russia. During Netanyahu's visit to the US, a football field in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights was attacked by rockets, killing and injuring dozens of children playing football there. Israel claimed that the attack was carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon. After denying it, Hezbollah in Lebanon had to launch a counterattack against Israel's retaliatory attack.

Hamas supreme leader Ismail Haniyeh

Later, shortly after the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian president, Ismail Haniyeh, the supreme leader of Hamas in Tehran, was assassinated by Israel!

Iran, Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah have all vowed to fight back against Israel.

Will Israel get involved in a melee in the Middle East, attacking Hamas in the south, Lebanon in the north, and taking on other Islamic forces?

Since Harris believes that Israel should not continue to fight, the prisoner exchange between the United States and Russia may also be sending a signal to Israel.

Stop fighting! The US and Russia are exchanging prisoners. Maybe Russia and Ukraine will have to negotiate a ceasefire!

From this perspective, if Russia and Ukraine can each invest more bargaining chips, perhaps peace between Russia and Ukraine will come as soon as possible. By then, what will Israel want? Will it still want to fight? Let's wait and see!