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India is seeking to strengthen its economic ties with Russia. During the recent 14th BRICS Trade Ministers' Meeting, the Indian Minister of Commerce held a bilateral meeting with the Russian Minister of Economic Development and others, mainly to discuss bilateral trade issues. According to CCTV News, the two countries have established a goal of increasing the Russian-Indian trade volume to US$100 billion by 2030. In response, the United States "made a harsh statement" and the U.S. Treasury Department warned Indian banks that it might impose sanctions on financial institutions that cooperate with Russian military-industrial enterprises.

Experts believe that India-Russia trade has increased significantly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has had a positive impact on the Indian economy, and the US sanctions may be difficult to implement.

Oil becomes the focus

Russia and India plan to increase their trade volume to $100 billion by 2030, a 50% increase from the current $66 billion. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, this figure was much smaller. Oil trade is the main source of the surge in trade between the two countries.

Lin Minwang, deputy director of the South Asian Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out that India's dependence on foreign oil is over 80%. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India bought oil from the Middle East and the United States; after the conflict, India turned to Russia and exported to Europe and the United States. "Buying cheap oil from Russia is very beneficial to India in curbing inflation and foreign exchange shortages, so it will continue to expand imports."

However, India's exports to Russia have barely grown since 2022. How to achieve a trade balance is what the two countries need to study now. Indian Commerce Minister Sunil Baswal said the Indian government is seeking to expand access to the Russian market and encourage bilateral trade to be settled in rupees in order to increase exports to Russia.

Lin Minwang believes that in order to encourage Russia to buy from India, India needs to be more "open" and not "too concerned" about the feelings of the West. "In essence, the two sides can only achieve trade balance through a larger trade volume." Russia is very confident in achieving this goal. Currently, Russia has become India's fourth largest trading partner.

Promoting "balanced diplomacy"

Many media reported that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may visit Ukraine in August, which will be his first visit to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Just last month, Modi visited Russia for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said that he would strengthen mediation with Russia and Ukraine.

Russia and India have had a solid relationship for many years. India has avoided criticizing Russia over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and stressed resolving the issue peacefully through dialogue.

The United States is dissatisfied with the India-Russia cooperation and has not only expressed its concerns, but has also warned Indian banks that financial institutions involved in Russian military business may lose access to the US financial system. US Deputy Secretary of State Campbell previously said that India's relationship with Russia has affected US-India technological cooperation.

Facing the tough stance of the United States, India said it values ​​its "strategic autonomy." Lin Minwang pointed out that this is a typical feature of Indian diplomacy: occupying a certain position in all parties and maintaining a rough balance. "India's 'strategic autonomy' means maintaining flexibility at all times."

Earlier, India announced that it would purchase several sets of Russian-made S-400 Triumph air defense systems, and the US also threatened sanctions, but it turned out that there was no follow-up. "The US is also afraid of losing India," said Lin Minwang. "Given India's size, neither side will easily take heavy measures against it."

Analysts point out that India's hidden distrust of the United States is a key factor hindering India-US relations. India hopes to promote a "balanced diplomacy" between the West and Russia, but in Modi's third term, facing the influence and pressure of the West, how India can ensure that its strategic autonomy is not compressed will be a major challenge. Xinmin Evening News reporter Wang Jiaye