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Source: Times Finance Author: Ali Mire

As a major economic province, it has become one of the "stabilizing factors" for stable economic growth.

Data shows that in the first half of this year, the total GDP of the six major economic provinces of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan and Sichuan reached 27,686.054 billion yuan, accounting for 44.8% of the national total, continuing to shoulder the national responsibility.

Specifically, Guangdong and Jiangsu still ranked first and second in terms of economic output, with GDP reaching 6524.25 billion yuan and 6332.63 billion yuan respectively in the first half of the year. Shandong and Zhejiang followed closely behind, with GDP exceeding 4 trillion yuan each, and their growth rates also outperformed the average level of major economic provinces (5.2%).

It is worth noting that Henan and Sichuan, ranked fifth and sixth, are engaged in a fierce "chase battle" to become the fifth largest province.

Last year, due to the final adjustment of GDP, Sichuan once surpassed Henan and became the fifth largest province in terms of economy and the largest province in the central and western regions. However, in the first half of this year, Henan has outperformed Sichuan for two quarters, with a total GDP of 3,123.144 billion yuan, 176.814 billion yuan ahead of Sichuan.

Halfway through 2024, the economically developed provinces have already delivered impressive results. So, what are the provinces relying on to achieve their economic success?

Industry

In the first half of 2024, the two major economic provinces of Jiangsu and Shandong demonstrated their strength.

Data shows that the total GDP of the two provinces reached 6332.63 billion yuan and 4667.7 billion yuan respectively. In terms of growth rate, both increased by 5.8% year-on-year. This growth rate not only outperformed the average of economically developed provinces, but also exceeded the annual preset target (growth of more than 5%) by 0.8 percentage points.

Specifically, the strong performance of Jiangsu's industry and modern service industries have jointly driven its remarkable economic growth.

In terms of industry, the equipment manufacturing industry has made an indelible contribution. Data shows that from January to June this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in the province increased by 8.6% year-on-year, of which the added value of equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.1% year-on-year, contributing 56.2% to the growth of added value of all industrial enterprises above designated size.

Liu Qihong, director of the Regional Economic Research Center of Hohai University, told Times Finance that there are several bright spots in Jiangsu's equipment manufacturing industry that are worth paying attention to, such as the railway and rail transit and shipbuilding industries, especially the shipbuilding industry, which has a leading position nationwide due to its extremely high order saturation.

In addition, as the core area of ​​the country's advanced manufacturing cluster, Nanjing has performed well in the field of power equipment (such as smart grids), while cities such as Wuxi and Suzhou also have important layouts in textile machinery, thermal equipment, etc.

"In essence, a strong real economy is a distinctive feature of Jiangsu. This is also reflected in the close cooperation between Jiangsu and other provinces and cities such as Zhejiang and Shanghai, which promotes regional coordinated development through the transfer of industries between regions and the development of domestic and foreign markets. In addition, the vigorous development of Jiangsu's modern service industry has also enhanced the endogenous driving force of its economy," said Liu Qihong.

Jiangsu (Photo source: TuChong Creative)

Similar to Jiangsu, for Shandong, industry remains the "main beam" supporting economic development.

Data shows that in the first half of this year, the growth rate of Shandong's industrial added value reached 8.5%. In terms of industries, the growth of the raw materials industry was particularly outstanding, reaching 9.7%, 1.2 percentage points faster than all industries above designated size.

In particular, the added value of chemical industry and nonferrous metal industry increased by 11.6% and 16.2% respectively, providing strong support for the rapid growth of industrial economy.

As a traditional industrial province, heavy industry has always been Shandong's advantage. In recent years, Shandong has been undergoing industrial transformation and upgrading.

Liu Qihong analyzed that, on the one hand, Shandong relied on local resources, such as Binzhou and Dongying, which are rich in petrochemical resources, and Shengli Oilfield, to maintain and develop traditional industries such as chemical materials and home appliance manufacturing. On the other hand, Shandong actively deployed new energy fields, such as wind power projects and battery energy storage technology in coastal areas, while transforming traditional energy dependence and reducing dependence on coal and oil.

Shandong's transformation and upgrading has begun to show results.

In terms of key products, in the first half of this year, Shandong's output of high-end and intelligent products grew rapidly, with integrated circuits and optoelectronic devices increasing by 23.5% and 24.1% year-on-year respectively. These data not only highlight Shandong's rapid development in the field of modern manufacturing, but also reflect its market potential and competitiveness in the production of modern electronic equipment.

Foreign trade

In this economic competition, Jiangsu and Shandong have demonstrated their advantages in industrial development, while Guangdong and Zhejiang have made steady efforts in the field of foreign trade.

As the largest province in foreign trade, Guangdong's total import and export value reached 4.37 trillion yuan in the first half of this year, setting a new historical high for the same period, an increase of 13.8% year-on-year, 7.7 percentage points higher than the national average, becoming an important support for stabilizing the economy.

By category, whether import or export, mechanical and electrical products are still the "big head" of Guangdong's foreign trade.

Data shows that in the first half of the year, Guangdong's imports and exports of electromechanical products increased by 23.6% and 9.9% year-on-year, respectively, accounting for about 64% of the total foreign trade value. Among electromechanical products, ships, electric passenger cars and containers grew rapidly, increasing by 70.7%, 78.3% and 104% respectively.

Han Yonghui, deputy director of the Guangdong Institute for International Strategy, said in an interview with Times Finance that the growth in exports of Guangdong's high value-added products reflects Guangdong's competitiveness in the field of high-tech and high value-added products, as well as the strong demand for these products in the international market.

"However, the growth of some products is relatively weak. For example, the export of labor-intensive products increased by 2.4%, which is slightly slower than the growth of high-tech products. In addition, the competitiveness of some traditional manufacturing products in the international market has declined, resulting in their export growth rate being lower than expected," said Han Yonghui.

Guangzhou Free Trade Zone Port (Photo source: TuChong Creative)

As a major foreign trade province, Zhejiang's foreign trade also grew beyond expectations in the first half of the year, demonstrating strong resilience and vitality.

Data shows that from January to June this year, Zhejiang's imports and exports, exports, and imports were 2.56 trillion yuan, 1.90 trillion yuan, and 0.66 trillion yuan, up 7.8%, 8.6%, and 5.5% year-on-year, respectively, all hitting historical highs for the same period. Among them, the scale of exports ranked second in the country, and exports accounted for 15.7% of the national share.

Specifically in terms of industries, mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products are Zhejiang's two largest export products.

In terms of electromechanical products, in the first half of the year, the province's exports of electromechanical products reached 878.09 billion yuan, up 9.6%, 1.4 percentage points higher than the national average for similar products. Among them, Zhejiang, as an important base for national ship exports, saw a 93.7% increase in ship exports, with exports achieving double-digit growth for four consecutive months.

During the same period, the export performance of labor-intensive products was also good. In the first six months, Zhejiang's exports of labor-intensive products increased by 7.1% year-on-year. In Yiwu, the "World Small Commodity Capital", the export of labor-intensive products increased by nearly 30% in the first half of the year, contributing more than half of Yiwu's export growth.

Liu Qihong told Times Finance that in recent years, with the transfer of the global industrial chain and the reduction of processing trade, China's foreign trade exports are transforming into general trade, and the proportion of general trade in exports continues to increase. Against this background, Zhejiang private enterprises have shown strong advantages.

Data shows that in the first half of the year, Zhejiang's private enterprises' imports and exports totaled 2.07 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year, accounting for 80.7% of the province's total imports and exports, with a contribution rate as high as 90.6%.

"Private enterprises in Zhejiang have performed well not only in traditional manufacturing, but also in the digital economy. With the rapid development of the digital economy, especially the rise of digital economic platforms in Hangzhou and other places, it has provided opportunities for foreign trade growth.new momentum. "Liu Qihong said.

Striving for new momentum

Among the economically powerful provinces, the competition between Sichuan and Henan for the fifth largest province in China has attracted much attention. After Sichuan surpassed Henan last year, this pattern did not last long. In the first quarter of this year, Henan surpassed Sichuan, making this competition the focus again.

Data shows that in the first half of the year, Henan's GDP reached 3123.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; Sichuan's GDP totaled 2946.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Compared with the same period last year, the gap in the total economic volume of the two provinces is narrowing, from 190.5 billion yuan to 176.8 billion yuan.

Judging from the data, Henan's advantage lies in its rapid industrial growth. In the first half of the year, Henan's industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.8% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the first quarter. In Sichuan, the province's industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year.

In the industrial sector, the performance of the two provinces' leading industries, automobiles and auto parts, is somewhat different. Data shows that Henan's automobile industry has maintained a rapid growth trend, with the province's added value of automobiles and auto parts increasing by 36.6%, 28.8 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the province's industrial output. In the data released by Sichuan, its automobile production fell by 11.4%.

Liu Qihong analyzed that Henan, as a major industrial province, has 17 automobile manufacturing companies such as Zhengzhou Yutong, SAIC Zhengzhou, Dongfeng Nissan, and Kaifeng Chery after years of development, with an annual output of more than 800,000 vehicles. On the basis of having a relatively complete industrial chain,CATLandBYDBattery has successively invested in the construction of power battery factories in Henan, which has also driven the rapid growth of Henan in the automobile industry.

Automobile manufacturing plant (Source: TuChong Creative)

However, due to the high degree of reliance on a single industry or enterprise to drive foreign trade growth, the decline in Henan's foreign trade exports in the first half of the year brought certain challenges to its economy.

Data shows that in the first half of this year, Henan's import and export growth rate fell by 13.8% year-on-year. Specifically, home appliances, which account for half of the province's export value, fell by 30.4%. In this category, mobile phones and integrated circuit exports fell by 49.1% and 78.4% respectively.

However, as Sichuan catches up, Henan is using the new energy vehicle industry as a new driving force for its economic growth. "At present, Henan is focusing on building a new energy intelligent connected vehicle industry to fill the gap left by Foxconn's withdrawal, and BYD's production in Zhengzhou has also injected strong momentum into this industry," said Liu Qihong.

Sichuan still has shortcomings in automobile manufacturing. Compared with provinces with strong automobile industries, Sichuan's weaknesses are mainly reflected in the lack of influence of independent brands, relatively weak industrial foundation and accumulation, and the slow progress of the transformation of intelligent networking trends.

However, shortcomings can also become springboards. Sichuan's potential in the field of new energy, especially in the photovoltaic industry and power batteries, cannot be underestimated.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, Sichuan's advantages are more in key core components, especially in power batteries. Relying on its rich lithium mineral resources and solid industrial foundation, it has gathered CATL,China New Aviation, Honeycomb Energy and other power battery companies.

It can be said that Sichuan has basically gathered the "leading players" in the entire power battery industry chain.

Thanks to this, in the first half of 2024, Sichuan achieved year-on-year growth of 11.2% and 10.7% in advanced materials and equipment manufacturing industries respectively. In particular, new energy products such as power batteries, monocrystalline silicon, and polycrystalline silicon grew rapidly, providing important support for stable economic growth.

However, looking back at 2023, Sichuan made intensive efforts in the second half of the year and successfully ranked among the fifth largest provinces in the country last year. In the second half of this year, whether Sichuan can catch up with Henan again has become a new suspense.