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Author/ Lin Haidong

On July 29-30, Kim Jong-un was suspected of living on his train, and held a two-day top-level meeting on his train - the 22nd emergency enlarged meeting of the 8th Political Bureau. "Emergency, enlarged" defines the nature of the meeting. The Political Bureau meeting was held for two consecutive days, which is also a rare phenomenon in the Kim Jong-un era, which illustrates the urgency of the current situation from another perspective. What the current situation is is well known, so it is better not to mention it.

On July 28, one city and two provinces in North Korea were declared "special emergency areas."After the two-day meeting on the 29th and 30th, Sinuiju City and Jagang Province are still considered special, but Ryanggang Province does not seem to be so "special".The personnel changes at the meeting also proved this point from another perspective.

On July 28, Kim Jong-un severely criticized the State Emergency Crisis Countermeasures Committee and the Ministry of Social Security, which led to the outside world saying that the heads of these two departments might be "executed".It is proposed that severe punishment be imposed on some cadres who have seriously neglected their important duties entrusted by the Party and the State and caused intolerable deaths of people.". Kim Jong-un himself said that "severe punishment will be given", so the future of these cadres who hold "important positions assigned by the Party and the State" is uncertain and they can only wish for the best.

The personnel changes at this meeting have verified several of our previous speculations and also provided us with clues to determine who is likely to be "severely punished." Let's first look at the basic situation:

appointmentforwardFirst Deputy Director of the Organization and Guidance DepartmentLi Xiyong is the responsible secretary of the North Pyongan Provincial Party Committee; Secretary of the Party Committee of North Pyongan ProvincePark Sung-chul is the responsible secretary of the Jagang Provincial Party Committee; First Deputy Minister of the Military and Political Guidance DepartmentFang Tou Xie is the Minister of Social Security。

As an alternate member of the Political Bureau and the first deputy director of the Organization and Guidance Department, Li Xiyong was mainly responsible for the work of the "20×10 Policy for Local Development" after it was introduced this year, and served as Zhao Yongyuan's deputy in the non-permanent Central Promotion Committee. But soon after the construction project was launched, Li Xiyong disappeared from public view.2024.6) I have judgedJudging from the fact that Lee Hee-yong is called "former first deputy director of the Organization and Guidance Department" this time, he should have been re-employed, and he really has to thank this "super emergency" situation, otherwise, he doesn't know when he can make a comeback. Lee Hee-yong's ups and downs are similar to those of his colleagues, such as Lee Byung-chul, Park Jong-cheon, andThe golden-headed Japanese who was once scolded by the marshalAlthough he made mistakes, he followed the path of "punishing past mistakes to prevent future ones and curing illnesses to save people". He was demoted when he made mistakes and brought back when needed. Li Xiyong's new position is lower than his "previous" position, but it is not too bad. After all, before he became the first deputy director of the Organization and Guidance Department in 2020, he was the head of the Tao.

Lee Tae-seop (in the red circle), who was removed from his post as Minister of Social Security, attended the meeting

Let’s talk about General Fang Touxie.As the former first deputy chief of the general staff and director of the General Operations Bureau, Fang Touxie has not made a public appearance for a long time, and his occasional appearances are just a fleeting glimpse in the video.In the past two years, we only know that he is safe and sound, but we don’t know his current position;At the same time, it is not certain who sits in the important position of First Deputy Chief of General Staff and Director of the General Operations Bureau of the North Korean military. There are speculations but no official confirmation.The position of First Deputy Minister of the Military and Political Guidance Department lets us know the exact whereabouts of General Fang Touxie in the past two years, and also provides an official answer to the questions raised by a familiar face in the plainclothes First Deputy Minister's seat.The case of General Fang Touxie is actually representative to a certain extent. When his current position as the First Deputy Minister of the Military and Political Guidance Department was confirmed, the personnel changes in the General Staff Headquarters in the past two years became roughly clear.Fang Touxie's appointment as Minister of Social Security marks a new peak in his career, because with this position he can basically get involved.The whereabouts of his predecessor Lee Tae-seop is unknown. I wonder if he is within the scope of the "severe punishment" recommended by the marshal?Personally, I think Lee Tae-sub may be punished, but the possibility of "severe punishment" is small.

Jiang Fengxun (indicated by the red arrow), who was removed from his post as the responsible secretary of the Jagang Provincial Party Committee, also attended the meeting

Finally, let’s take a look at Jigang Province.Jagang Province is the center of North Korea's military-industrial enterprises, and it has always been easy to produce achievements and big bosses;Kim Deok-hoon and Kim Chae-ryong both started their careers here.Jiang Fengxun, the current responsible secretary of the Jagang Province Party Committee, has been in this position since April 2019. He has not been promoted or demoted in five years, and his position is extremely stable.After the 10th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee in June, Marshal led all the Central Committee membersInspecting important factories and enterprisesAt that time, Jiang Fengxun was still beside the Marshal. Who would have thought that it would rain heavily?It washed away his official hat.I was very surprised that Park Sung-chul, the current secretary of the North Pyongan Provincial Party Committee, was sent to Jagang Province to replace Kang Bong-hoon.But this also made me understandSeveral things were mentioned, such as the "special emergency" in Sinuiju and Uiju County, which was actually nothing, otherwise the Marshal's special train would not have been on the waterside rails.Stop for two days;For example, the Jagang Province, which has never been reported publicly, is the real "extremely urgent" one, otherwise Jiang Fengxun, who has not been moved for five years, would not have been moved.Like Lee Tae-sub, Kang Bong-hoon’s future is unknown, and it is unknown whether he will be punished or “severely punished”;Personally, I think that if Jiang Fengxun is to be punished, it depends on whether the Marshal’s important military factories have suffered losses and how much damage has been done.

This meeting is not the first time that the Marshal held an important meeting on the special train, nor is it the first time that the Marshal's special train meeting room has been exposed. As far as I can remember, it is the first time that so many images have been released this time. It is indeed rare. In fact, this special train meeting room is not so mysterious, nor so luxurious and exaggerated. The space is relatively cramped, and it would seem a bit crowded if there are many people. If you don't believe it, just look at the picture and you will know. I won't talk about other things about this meeting, nor will I make relevant analysis. You can go to the official website of the North Korean media to see the official pictures and texts. If you have any questions, I will not answer them.

By the way, the photo-taking and self-portrait of the North Korean and South Korean players in the Paris Olympics mixed doubles table tennis is a good thing. It is a reflection of the Olympic spirit and the youthful vigor that young people should have. But the off-topic talk and even conspiracy theories such as "small ball diplomacy" are pure nonsense. What I am most worried about now is not the incident itself, but what will happen to the two North Korean athletes after they return to the delegation's residence and return to North Korea.