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According to real-time statistics from Maoyan Professional Edition, as of July 30, the 2024 summer box office exceeded 7.4 billion.

Compared with the "successful start" of last year's summer season, the early performance of this year's summer season was relatively cold. Before the release of "The Silence" on July 3, there was no single film with a box office of more than 1 billion. Only "A Small Shop at the Edge of the Cloud" took the lead with a box office of more than 359 million. In terms of monthly box office data, the total box office in June was only 2.23 billion, which was the lowest box office month in the first half of 2024.

But in July, the release of movies such as "The Silent War" and "The Dolls" brought about a box office boom, and the summer season as a whole showed a steady upward trend.

More choices, less quality and good timing

Overall, this summer's films offer audiences many choices in terms of both quantity and type. There are domestic classic costume fantasy blockbusters "Legend", mainstream blockbusters "Customs Front" co-produced by the mainland and Hong Kong, as well as imported science fiction blockbusters "Deadpool and Wolverine" and "A Quiet Place: Invasion Day"; there are realistic films "Railway Hotel" that focus on the patient group, literary and artistic films "A Small Shop at the Edge of the Cloud", and "Welcome to Me" and "Hourglass" that tell youth love stories; there are also many animated films such as "Falling into Earth", "Despicable Me 4" and "Inside Out 2" that are released one after another.

The fundamental reason for the mediocre performance in the early stages of the summer season is that the quality of the works is not satisfactory. Many films that seemed to have the potential to become blockbusters were criticized by the audience for not living up to their reputation after their release.

"There is a Small Shop at the Edge of the Clouds" is a representative example of a huge contrast in word-of-mouth before and after its release. Before its release, the film was mainly labeled as a healing film. With the help of the "lying down", "returning home" and "small town literature" trends brought about by film and television works such as "Go and Go" and "My Altay", it reached a tacit understanding with the audience's current psychology; coupled with the foundation of fans of the original book, the audience has long been ready to welcome a carnival of healing movies. But whether it is the main line with Liu Shisan as the core, or the three branch relationships between father and daughter, lovers, and siblings, the story is told in fragments. After the film was released, its reputation gradually declined amid the audience's complaints, and the final Douban score was only 5.1 points.

The film Legend also suffered from the same fatal flaw. In the early promotion, it gave people the illusion that a blockbuster was about to be born, but the truth gradually emerged after its release. Whether it was the banner of the "sister film" of The Myth, the "super production" touted in the promotional posters, or the appeal of Jackie Chan, it all fell due to the poor plot, the random war scenes, and the embarrassing AI face-changing. The poor quality made Legend only earn more than 79.72 million in box office in 20 days after its release. The total box office predicted by Maoyan Professional Edition did not exceed 100 million, and Douban scored only 5.2 points.

Some other summer films, such as "Welcome to Me" (Douban score 6.2) and "The Front" (Douban score 6.2), also failed due to poor quality.

It is not unfair that the film failed to meet the standards of a masterpiece, but it is a pity that a unique film like "Falling into the Mortal World" did not receive the corresponding attention. As a film with little publicity in the early stage, "Falling into the Mortal World" won praise from many film critics and audiences after its release for its creative adaptation of the traditional story of the Cowherd and the Weaver Girl and its careful construction of modern values. However, compared with the phenomenon of "Three Thousand Miles of Chang'an" driving domestic animated films out of the circle last year, as of today, "Falling into the Mortal World" has only a box office of more than 34.5 million, largely due to the awkward release time.

When "Falling into the Mortal World" was released on July 12, it happened to coincide with the large-scale preview of the movie "Catching Dolls" on July 13. The comprehensive box office share of "Catching Dolls" on the 13th was 50.7%, while "Falling into the Mortal World" only accounted for 1.1% on that day, which was lower than the day before; and "The Murderer", which was released on July 3, still maintained a comprehensive box office share of 49.8% on the 12th, and is still in the hot stage. The release time of "Falling into the Mortal World" was sandwiched between "The Murderer" and "Catching Dolls", and as an animated film, it did not have the appeal of stars, so it was difficult to attract the attention of the audience.

It can be seen that the timing of release has become a crucial factor affecting the success or failure of a film. This may also be the reason why more and more films are hesitating between being advanced, withdrawn or changed.

A wave of enthusiasm

Mo Sha breaks the deadlock, Shen Ma takes over

According to the data from Maoyan Professional Edition, the monthly box office of movies from March to June after the Spring Festival has remained at more than 2 billion yuan. After the release of "The Silent Killer" and "Catch the Dolls" in July, it quickly rose to more than 4 billion yuan, which shows the market vitality brought by the two films.

At the beginning of July, "Silent Killing" opened up a new situation for the market. The movie earned 376 million yuan in the first week of its release, and showed a downward trend many times. On July 19, it broke the 1 billion mark. With its high commerciality and topicality, it became the first film to break the 1 billion mark after the Spring Festival. On July 16, "Catching Dolls" took over the box office and broke 157 million yuan on the first day of its release. As of July 30, the box office has exceeded 2.3 billion yuan. With the increase in the number of moviegoers and the continued rise in the popularity of the film marketing, Maoyan predicts that the final box office of "Catching Dolls" will be around 3.5 billion yuan.

The popularity of these two films is not accidental. The genre filling and the appeal of the main creators are the main reasons for the two films to become popular. Under the influence of popular culture ecology such as online dramas, the public's enthusiasm for suspense crime films has returned, but from the May Day to the Dragon Boat Festival, the release of such films has failed to satisfy the audience's appetite. Compared with "The Wandering Blade" and "Sweeping Black: Never Give Up", which are also crime suspense themes, "Silent Killing" focuses on large-scale sensory stimulation, coupled with the mixture of multiple social issues and the continuous reversal of the plot, which caters to the needs of the market and the audience, and ignites the summer season with the attitude of a mature commercial genre film.

As for "Catch the Dolls", after "The Last Thing" in the May Day period, pure comedy movies have been absent in the market. At the same time, with the re-discussion of "The Richest Man in Xihong City", this movie, originally named "Capital Successor", has been expected by the audience for a long time. The "Shen Ma" combination also ensures the box office appeal of "Catch the Dolls". Many viewers commented before the release that "as long as it is played by them", no matter how it is filmed, "you have to go and try it", which also makes this pure comedy of "don't talk about the meaning, don't think too much" more tolerant.

In addition, the film itself lived up to the audience's expectations for a comedy film, and received good reviews after its release. Its Douban score of 7.5 ranked among the top works in the Mahua series. Currently, "Catching Dolls" ranks first in the summer box office list, and the screening rate before August 2 remains at around 30%. As the number of moviegoers continues to rise, the film is expected to win the box office championship in this summer.

Subsequent efforts? The baton is yet to be tested

The second half of the summer season was opened by "Under the Aliens", which was released on July 26 and featured "real-life comic book adaptation + traditional Chinese style supernatural powers". The film earned more than 38.64 million yuan on the first day, surpassing the 32.81 million yuan of "The Silence" on its first day; but three days after its release, the box office showed a downward trend, falling to 6.21 million on the third day, which shows that the audience was disappointed with this film that ended in July. Judging from the audience's feedback, the main problems were the mistakes in the plot selection, the lack of excitement in the battle scenes, and the awkward performance of the actors.

In addition to "Under the Alien", the films scheduled for the second half of the summer season also show signs of being ready to go. According to the statistics of the "Real-time Want-to-Watch List" in the Maoyan Professional Edition publicity list, "Reverse Life" (113,000 people want to watch), which focuses on the delivery boy, "Decoded" (149,000 people want to watch), which shows the legendary life of a mathematical genius, and "Safe Evacuation from the 21st Century" (81,000 people want to watch), which tells the story of the Wangzha brothers saving the future, are at the top of the list and are highly anticipated by the audience.

Xu Zheng paired realistic themes, Chen Sicheng paired spy war epics, and Zhang Ruoyun paired Chinese-style science fiction. These three films are highly attractive to the audience in terms of both the subject matter and the main creators. "Safe Escape from the 21st Century" and "Decryption" have also received good reputations in recent previews. The former opened up the audience's imagination because of its brain-opening story, while the latter caught people's attention in the creation of a dream space.

We will have to wait and see whether the movies in the second half of the 2024 summer season can take over the baton and create new glories.