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Cailianshe News, July 29 (Reporter Guo Zishuo)The chain reaction brought about by the reduction of deposit interest rates is rapidly emerging. Many commercial banks are close to being out of stock of large-denomination certificates of deposit.

The "out of stock" of large-denomination certificates of deposit is just a microcosm of the short-term outflow of deposits. In the industry's view, the reduction in deposit interest rates also means that large-scale deposits may flow into the wealth management market.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Securities, believes that this round of deposit interest rate cuts may drive a larger amount of deposits to move to wealth management. At the same time, as deposit returns decline, it may also have a certain effect on promoting consumption in the short term.

Wang Qing also believes that after the state-owned banks adjust their deposit rates, other commercial banks will follow suit. Taking into account the economic and price trends in the future, there is still room for the policy interest rate (7-day reverse repurchase rate) to be lowered in the fourth quarter, which will then drive the LPR quotes of the two term varieties to follow up and adjust. In this way, it is possible that a new round of deposit rate cuts will be launched around the end of the year.

Many state-owned banks are out of stock of large deposits, with only some maturities available for purchase

On July 29, a reporter from Cailianshe discovered that the mobile banking apps of several large state-owned banks showed that all large-denomination certificates of deposit on the shelves were sold out. In addition, out-of-stock products have spread from medium- and long-term products with higher annual interest rates to short-term large-denomination certificates of deposit with lower interest rates ranging from 3 to 6 months. Some commercial banks' mobile banking large-denomination certificates of deposit have even been completely sold out.

Cailianshe reporter checkedChina Construction BankThe App found that its large-denomination certificates of deposit purchase page showed "No large-denomination certificates of deposit available for purchase". The customer service of China Construction Bank explained that the above situation is due to the product being sold out. Recently, many customers have purchased large-denomination certificates of deposit, but the quota for each product is limited. At present, the large-denomination certificates of deposit in the China Construction Bank mobile banking do not show that there is no quota.

The same situation also existsABCThe Agricultural Bank of China App shows that although there are still 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3-year individual large-denomination certificates of deposit on the shelves, the remaining amount of each product is less than the starting amount of 200,000 yuan. In other words, the above situation constitutes a "sold out" state. Cailianshe reporters noticed that the issuance date of this batch of large-denomination certificates of deposit of the Agricultural Bank of China was July 25, which was the day when all major state-owned banks lowered their deposit listing rates.

"With the interest rate cut in recent days, all large-denomination certificates of deposit are in great demand." A staff member of an Agricultural Bank of China branch in Guangzhou said that currently at offline counters, except for one-month personal large-denomination certificates of deposit and small-denomination certificates of deposit, there are no quotas for large-denomination certificates of deposit with other maturities.

ICBCThe app shows that currently, except for the 2-year large-denomination certificates of deposit with an annual interest rate of 1.70%, the remaining 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, 1-year, and 3-year large-denomination certificates of deposit are all "sold out." An employee of an ICBC branch in Guangzhou said, "There is no quota offline, and you need to make an appointment with a wealth management manager to apply (for the large-denomination certificate of deposit quota)."

andBank of CommunicationsThe app also shows that the only large-denomination certificates of deposit on sale are 3-month, 6-month and 1-year Shenzhen personal large-denomination certificates of deposit, with annual interest rates of 1.6%, 1.8% and 1.9% respectively.

Banks are still following the reduction of listed interest rates

On the market side, major commercial banks are accelerating to join the ranks of lowering deposit interest rates.

Since the six state-owned banks lowered their deposit interest rates on July 25, China has officially entered a new round of deposit rate cuts.China Merchants BankandPing An BankIn addition, includingCITIC Bank、Industrial Bank、China Zheshang Bank、Bohai BankTen national joint-stock banks including Bank of China, Hengfeng Bank, Pudong Development Bank and China Everbright Bank have lowered their RMB deposit interest rates starting today, with the reduction ranging from 5 to 20 basis points.

So far, six state-owned banks and 12 joint-stock banks have completed a new round of deposit rate cuts. In particular, in this rate cut, state-owned banks and joint-stock banks also rarely lowered the current deposit rate by 5 basis points to 0.15%. This is also the first time since June 8, 2023 that the current deposit rate has been included in the deposit listing rate adjustment scope.

In an interview, Wang Qing pointed out that this round of bank deposit interest rate cuts means that although the LPR quotes of the two term varieties were lowered across the board in July, which will lead to a follow-up reduction in corporate and household loan interest rates, the bank's net interest margin is still expected to remain basically stable in the third quarter.

"The reduction in deposit rates may further drive deposits to move to wealth management." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, pointed out that since 2024, the wealth management market has continued to recover rapidly, and the growth rate of scale has far exceeded the same period in previous years. On the one hand, it is due to the several reductions in deposit listing rates in 2023, which has increased the excess yield of wealth management compared with deposits, and the "price comparison effect" has promoted the transfer of deposit funds to the wealth management market; on the other hand, it is due to the suspension of "manual interest supplements" and other regulatory adjustments that have accelerated the disintermediation of deposits, further providing incremental funding support for the wealth management market. Based on the above background, this reduction in deposit listing rates is expected to further drive deposits to move to wealth management.