news

한어Русский языкEnglishFrançaisIndonesianSanskrit日本語DeutschPortuguêsΕλληνικάespañolItalianoSuomalainenLatina

Text | Kaifeng

The Olympics tests a country’s comprehensive national strength and a city’s competitiveness.

A few days ago, the 2024 Paris Olympics kicked off, and a "flowing feast" was staged along the Seine River, showcasing the city's image of openness, inclusiveness and diversity.

In the past few years, due to the asymmetry between investment and return,Summer Olympics once coldThere are only a few applicants. There are still five cities applying for the 2024 Olympics, but only one city will remain for the 2032 Olympics, and it will advance directly.

Currently, the 2028 and 2032 Olympic Games have been chosen by Los Angeles, USA and Brisbane, Australia.What remains undecided is the 2036 Olympics.

However, in the past two years, the Olympics have suddenly warmed up, and more than 10 countries have expressed their willingness to bid for the 2036 Olympics.

Will China bid for the Olympics again? Who will represent China? Who will become China's second Olympic city?

01

Olympics, why are they suddenly getting hot again?

Not long ago, IOC President Bach said that there are alreadyDouble-digit cities join bids for 2036 Olympicsamong.

These areas includeIndia, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey, Germany, Indonesia, Qatar, Egypt, PolandEtc., involving more than 10 cities.

Indian officials even used the word "sparing no effort" to describe their determination, saying that "this is the dream and wish of 1.4 billion Indians."

Behind the rebound in Olympic bids is mainlyDue to changes in the international economic landscape, a number of developing countries have emerged and are eager to showcase themselves through large-scale international events.

This is the case with countries such as India, Mexico, and Indonesia. As beneficiaries of the global industrial transfer, these countries have the fastest GDP growth rates among major economies, and they are motivated to use the Olympics to showcase their development achievements.

In addition to economics,The Olympics seem to be entrusted with even higher expectations.

Egypt hopes to become the first African country to host the Olympic Games, India is trying to show the development speed of the world's newly populous country, and Mexico is committed to recreating the historical glory of hosting the 1968 Olympic Games.

In addition, the Olympic bid process has been greatly innovated. It is no longer limited to a single city, but can be jointly hosted by multiple cities or even multiple countries (regions).Co-hosting the OlympicsOpened the door.

Of course, hosting the Olympics is a battle of comprehensive national strength, with investments of more than tens of billions of dollars. It is necessary to take into account not only the country's own sports facilities, but also the economic and financial affordability, and even more importantly, to consider future sustainable development.

Now is not the time for a final decision, and the host city of the 2036 Olympics will not be confirmed until a few years later at the earliest.

02

Who is most likely to become China's second Olympic city?

Although there has never been any official statement on bidding for the next Olympic Games, a list of 12 cities has been widely circulated on social media.

These cities includeShanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Xiamen, Xi'an, etc.

Among these cities, the most popular one is not a certain city, but three major combinations:Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macao, Sichuan and Chongqing.

Currently, only Beijing in China has hosted the Olympic Games, and it combines both the Summer Olympics and the Winter Olympics, making it one of the few "double Olympic" cities in the world.

The last Summer Olympics was in 2008, 16 years ago.From 2008 to 2036, it is a long cycle spanning 28 years.

In recent years, with China's rise as the world's second largest economy and the largest manufacturing country, its global influence has changed beyond recognition. In addition to Beijing, a number of economically strong cities have emerged and stood out in the world, with the ability and motivation to host the next Olympic Games.

The 2036 Olympics is important because2035 is an extremely critical time point for China.

This year marks the end of the first phase of the “Two Fifteen-Year Plans”, the year in which my country will basically build a modernized country and the year in which its per capita income will reach the level of a moderately developed country.

Although no domestic city has made a clear statement to bid for the Olympics, as long as the country is interested, China's probability of winning will only be high, given its comprehensive national strength, sports facilities and urban development.

Hold a good meeting and revitalize a city, this sentence is widely known in our country.

An event has never been just an event, but has been entrusted with the important task of enhancing a city’s visibility, revitalizing cultural and tourism resources, promoting the construction of public facilities, and even stimulating the economy.

Therefore, no city is willing to miss this international feast as long as it can.

03

If China really wants to host the 2036 Olympics, who can represent China?

In many cities,Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Macao, Sichuan and ChongqingThe three major groups have the highest support.

Considering the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei city cluster that has hosted the Olympics, these places are the most mature in China.Four major city clusters, representing the four poles of China's urbanization and integrated transportation system.

Moreover, these regions have plenty of experience in hosting large-scale events.Guangzhou and Hangzhou have hosted the Asian Games, Shenzhen and Chengdu have hosted the UniversiadeThe infrastructure such as relevant venues is relatively sound.

However, whether a country can host the Olympics depends not only on whether it has international reputation, but also on whether it can afford the economic and financial resources.

In terms of international reputation, Shanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao are obviously better. Shanghai and Hong Kong are both world-class cities, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are both at the first-tier "Alpha" level in the world city matrix.

From the perspective of economic strengthShanghai, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao have the greatest advantages, with many economically strong cities and huge fiscal revenue. They can be regarded as the regions with the highest economic and population density in my country.

In contrast, Sichuan and Chongqing have relatively low international visibility. Although their economic size is not weak, with the combined GDP of the two regions exceeding 9 trillion yuan, their over-reliance on transfer payments raises questions about whether they have sufficient financial support.

In addition to economic strength, more important isThe strategic significance of hosting the Olympic Games, whether it can drive the overall improvement of regional integration and even international competitiveness.

From the perspective of regional development strategies, Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou are focusing on the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao are based in the integrated development of the Greater Bay Area, and Sichuan and Chongqing are the "Tale of Two Cities" of the Chengdu-Chongqing region.

Through the Olympics, Shanghai will strengthen its status as a global city, while the international presence of Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao will be further highlighted, and Chengdu and Chongqing will also be able to enter the world stage.

It can be said that each place has its own considerations, but who will win in the end depends on economic, financial and strategic considerations.

04

Shanghai, why not host large-scale comprehensive international events?

As China's largest economic city, Shanghai has no experience in hosting large-scale comprehensive international events.Neither the Olympic Games, the Asian Games nor even the Universiade have been involved.

Although Shanghai has many top international events, such as the F1 Chinese Grand Prix, Shanghai Masters, and Shanghai International Marathon, they are all limited to a certain field rather than comprehensive events.

For a city that is positioned as a “global city”“Capital of International Sports Events”For the metropolitan areas that are the target, there is clearly a gap.

In fact, although Shanghai has repeatedly refuted rumors about the Olympics, there have been some disturbances.

As early as 2018, Shanghai issued a public announcement on "Feasibility Study Services for the Bid for the 2032 Summer Olympics", which was considered a signal of competing for the Olympics, but was later debunked. The local authorities explained that this move was "basic research for building a competition system" and there was no need to over-interpret it.

Subsequently, Shanghai explicitly mentioned in its "14th Five-Year Plan" for sports development that "taking into account future urban development needs, reserving land for large-scale comprehensive sports event venues", leaving people with unlimited room for imagination.

In the first half of last year, when IOC President Bach visited Shanghai, relevant parties said,Shanghai will accelerate the construction of a world-renowned sports city, and under the guidance of the International Olympic Committee, introduce more top international events.

Although there has been no direct statement, Shanghai has the confidence and strength to become China's next Olympic city, both for strategic planning and long-term development considerations.

Of course, Shanghai can afford the Olympic expenses on its own, but if it can unite with its sister cities in the metropolitan area, it will undoubtedly be able to better exert the comprehensive effects of the Olympics.

05

How competitive is the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area?

More than 10 years ago, after the Guangzhou Asian Games and the Shenzhen Universiade, there were suggestions that Guangzhou and Shenzhen, or Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Macao, should jointly bid for the Olympic Games, but it ultimately came to nothing.

In recent years, with the emergence of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao are being connected into one through cross-sea bridges and cross-city subways. They are not just one city, but better than one city.

Today, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has a GDP of over 14 trillion yuan and a permanent population of over 86 million, making it the largest in the world.“Urban Region”.

Looking around the world, this size is on par with Australia, Russia, South Korea and other countries, equivalent to the 10th largest economy. Whether in terms of economic density, enterprise density or innovation density, it is second to none in the world.

With the accelerated integration of the three places, both the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong and Macao are no longer fighting alone, but are participating in the game between major powers and competition in the science and technology industry as a whole, aiming to become the world's largest "super city".

In terms of sports events,The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is emerging as a whole, jointly compete for some major international events.

The 2025 National Games will be jointly hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao. This is a milestone in the development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and also lays the foundation for jointly competing for the right to host the Olympic Games in the future.

As the official statement goes,The 15th National Games is hosted by Guangdong, Hong Kong and MacaoThis is my country's largest, highest-level and most influential comprehensive sports event. It is also the first time that Hong Kong and Macao have hosted the National Games. It has far-reaching influence and great significance.

If cross-sea bridges and cross-city subways bring hard connectivity and shorten the physical distance between bay areas, then jointly hosting large-scale events is a reflection of soft connectivity and shortens the psychological distance between the three places.

Of course, whether the Olympics can be held and where they are held does not mainly depend on local wishes, but on national will and overall needs. We will wait and see.

The more important purpose of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's joint bid for the Olympic Games is to further integrate the three places, especially the integration of Hong Kong and Macao into the overall national development.