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Reporter of China Business Network: Zheng Yuhang Editor of China Business Network: Lan Suying

As Biden dropped out of the race, his running mate Kamala Harris has been increasingly thrust into the spotlight. On July 25, Harris announced that she was ready to debate with former President Trump. For the Democratic Party, this will be an opportunity for the party to further enhance voter confidence.

According to the latest poll data, Harris not only surpassed Biden's support rate, but even surpassed his opponent Trump in some surveys, reversing the Democratic Party's decline in the election this year. However, on gambling websites, Trump is still the hottest candidate to enter the White House.

Currently, Harris has won enough support from party representatives to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, but has not yet officially announced her candidacy. The reporter of Daily Economic News noted that from a procedural point of view, if Harris wants to have a "head-on confrontation" with Trump, there are still three "urgent matters" that need to be resolved.

At the same time, as Harris's popularity grows, the outside world is also beginning to pay attention to the changes she may bring to economic policies. If she is elected, what impact will it have on the US economy, artificial intelligence, new energy and other industries?

Does Harris have a chance of defeating Trump?

After Biden dropped out of the race, Harris quickly gained enough support from party delegates to secure the Democratic presidential nomination, but she has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

But whether within the Democratic Party or in polls and political betting, Harris is the most popular candidate. In the betting on the Democratic presidential candidate on the betting website Polymarket, Harris's chance of winning reached 97%, showing an overwhelming advantage.

Harris is evenly matched against Trump. A Reuters and Ipsos poll released earlier this week showed Harris leading Republican presidential candidate Trump by a narrow margin of 2 percentage points. Analysts believe that this (the poll results) in a sense highlights a disadvantage of Trump that is not seen when facing Biden: age.

In order to better connect with young voters, Harris opened an official TikTok account (@kamalaharris) on the 25th. Within 40 minutes of her posting her first video, the account attracted more than 100,000 followers, and in less than two hours, it attracted nearly 200,000 followers. As of press time, the number of followers has reached 1.7 million, and the number of likes has reached 2.5 million.

In addition to her age, some Democrats predict that Harris's identity as a woman and a minority may also be reflected in her support rate.

However, Tony Fabrizio, a pollster and senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said in an internal memo on the 24th that Harris's support rate may temporarily rise due to extensive media coverage. "This increase may begin to appear in the next few days and will continue for some time. But there is no need to panic. The fundamentals of the campaign remain unchanged."

Trump still has a lead in the most competitive swing states. According to a poll released by Emerson College/The Hill on the 25th, Trump leads in Arizona (49% to 44%), Georgia (48% to 46%), Michigan (46% to 45%) and Pennsylvania (48% to 46%), while in Wisconsin, the two are tied at 47%.

Harris' three top priorities

Amid the bullish momentum, Harris announced that she was ready to debate with Trump. It is reported that Fox News invited Harris and Trump to hold a televised debate on September 17 this week. However, Trump's campaign team said on the 26th that they would not agree to a general election debate with Harris before the Democratic Party officially decided on the candidate.

From a procedural perspective, Harris still has three urgent tasks to resolve before facing Trump head-on.

First of all, it is necessary to obtain the formal nomination of the party. According to the plan, the Democratic National Convention is scheduled to be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22. However, the Democratic Party plans to hold an online vote in advance to formally confirm the party's presidential candidate. Foreign media reported that the Democratic Party may hold an online vote as early as August 1 and at the latest on August 7. Vice President Harris is expected to win the required delegate votes and obtain the party nomination.

If any Democrat steps up to challenge Harris during the period before the Democratic National Convention, the final candidate will remain uncertain.

Second, choose a running mate.

Foreign media reported that according to disclosures from several major Democratic Party donors, three Democrats from swing states in the U.S. presidential election are Harris' key candidates for running mates, namely Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. It is reported that Wall Street donors favor Shapiro and Cooper, while Hollywood donors favor Kelly.

In addition, the legal takeover of Biden’s nearly 100 million dollars in campaign funds.

The Trump campaign recently complained to the Federal Election Commission, saying Harris could not take over Biden's $96 million campaign funds.

Regarding this issue, Sean Cooksey, the current chairman of the Federal Election Commission, posted on the X platform that it might be necessary to issue refunds to previous donors so that they can re-select their donation targets. Another election lawyer also pointed out to foreign media that Biden should transfer the balance of his campaign account to the Democratic National Committee, and then Harris should open a new campaign account to regain support for fundraising.

Currently, the complaint against the Trump campaign is still under further review, and Harris has not yet made any statement on it.

What is the impact of Harris’ policy proposals?

"Daily Economic News" reporters noticed that as Harris's popularity increased, his policy proposals also began to become a hot topic.

Foreign media analysis believes that if she becomes the Democratic candidate, she will largely continue Biden's policy stance on major issues such as taxation and trade, but will be more proactive in areas such as climate change.

1) Inflation: Currently only 23% of voters associate Harris with it

The first estimate data released by the U.S. Department of Commerce on the 25th showed that the U.S. real GDP grew by 2.8% on an annualized basis in the second quarter of this year. Foreign media commented that this data means that the U.S. economy has remained resilient without further triggering a surge in inflation.

"Overall, this is a reflection of the strength of the economy. Judging from multiple political forecasting models, fundamentals are on Harris' side," said Jason Furman, a Harvard University professor who served as chief economist in the Obama administration. Daily Economic News reporters noted that a Blueprint poll also showed that only 23% of voters associated Harris with the problem of inflation in the United States.

However, some economists pointed out that Harris has always advocated solving long-term economic challenges such as income inequality, health care and climate change. Political economist Chuck Warren believes that "if Harris makes large investments in these areas after taking office, it may cause inflation or deflation."

2) Artificial intelligence: a cautious attitude may continue

In the highly-watched field of technology, Harris is likely to continue Biden's cautious attitude towards technological development.

According to foreign media, she once warned in a speech that AI could "endanger human survival", and in a conference call in March this year, she reiterated that "the American people have the right to know when and how their government uses AI and use it in a responsible manner."

However, in her previous political career, Harris often met with Silicon Valley technology leaders. At present, many people in the technology industry have endorsed and donated to Harris, including well-known figures such as Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg, Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings and philanthropist Melinda Frances Gates.

“Some might think the tech industry is a potential winner given Harris’s ties to Silicon Valley,” said Brian Gardner, chief Washington policy strategist at financial holding company Stifel. “But if she’s elected president, we’re skeptical she can maintain her old cordial relationship with the tech community.”

3) Cryptocurrency: No clear stance

Mark Cuban, a well-known American investor, told foreign media that he believes Harris will be more open to cryptocurrencies than Biden.

It is worth noting that Harris has never publicly expressed her position on digital currency, tokenization, blockchain or NFT. Foreign media commented that "this may mean that she (Harris) is a blank slate and can accept any different views." Since Harris does not seem to have a strong personal opinion on digital assets, the possible decisive factor in how cryptocurrency policy evolves under Harris' leadership may lie in the leaders of the advisors and regulatory agencies around her.

4) Automobile industry: expected to benefit clean energy and new energy vehicles

Foreign media pointed out that if Harris is elected president, she will defend and expand climate legislation, or push the United States to formulate stricter environmental standards and innovative financial mechanisms for the automotive industry, which will be beneficial to the development of clean energy and new energy vehicles.

While serving as Biden's running mate, Harris played a key role in pushing the Inflation Reduction Act, the largest climate spending bill in U.S. history, which focuses on clean energy and electric vehicle incentives and aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 42% below 2005 levels by 2030.

Harris's advocacy for environmental justice also featured cases during her time as California Attorney General, where she led and won nine criminal charges related to the All American Pipeline oil spill.