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Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro | Getty Images

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is expected to win his desired third term in a nationwide vote on Sunday in what is seen as the South American country's most open presidential election in more than a decade.

Some analysts in the Americas believe the presidential election could put Venezuela on a path to substantive change if Maduro is defeated at the ballot box and he is willing to give up power.

Some polls show opposition candidate and former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia more popular. The 74-year-old is widely seen as the only contender who can deny Maduro a third six-year term.

González was chosen by the country's main opposition party, the Democratic Unity Platform, after two other presidential candidates, Maria Corinna Machado and Corinna Yoris, were disqualified.

Maduro's ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) has ruled the Central American country since 2013, with Maduro in power following the death of his political mentor, Hugo Chavez.

Maduro was successfully re-elected in 2018 elections, but it was widely seen as an unfair contest because many prominent opposition figures were barred from running.

In recent weeks, Maduro and his political allies have increasingly raised the possibility of post-election violence, sparking concerns and warnings in the international community.

“The fate of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro said at a rally earlier this month, according to the Associated Press. “If we want to avoid a bloodbath or a fratricidal civil war unleashed by fascists, then we must guarantee the biggest electoral victory in history.”

Venezuela deploys troops to provide security for July 28 presidential election | AFP

The White House expressed concern on Thursday about the threat of violence in Venezuela's presidential election and urged Maduro to commit to peace and stability regardless of the outcome of the election.

Asked at a news conference whether Maduro could manipulate Sunday's vote, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said it was difficult to know how the situation would play out but that the United States wanted to "make it clear to Maduro: We are watching, we are watching closely."

Brazilian President Lula also urged Maduro to respect the election results, telling international news agencies he was "scared" by the Venezuelan leader's recent comments, Reuters reported.

Brazil's president said Maduro needs to learn one thing: if you win you stay, if you lose you go away.

The question is, does Maduro agree to the transfer of power?

"Based on their own exit polls, the opposition is likely to declare victory and push for regime change. Venezuela could then face a period of heightened political tension and uncertainty ahead of the inauguration of the president-elect," Andre Masuko, research analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told reporters.

“However, do not expect the Maduro regime to be overthrown. His tight control over state institutions, including the security forces, the judiciary and the National Electoral Council (CNE), will help him remain in power,” Masuko said.

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects that large-scale protests and increased violence will cause social unrest and instability in Venezuela in the coming months.

“We do not rule out the possibility that Maduro could accept defeat and subsequently allow a transition of power, although this is beyond our baseline forecast,” Masuko said.

Venezuelan opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia (left) and disqualified opposition leader Maria Corinna Machado attend a campaign event | AFP

Venezuela, which sits on the world's largest proven oil reserves, has been plagued by political and socioeconomic crises for years. According to public data, Venezuela's gross domestic product fell by about three-quarters between 2014 and 2021, although the country's economy has expanded in recent years. In April this year, the International Monetary Fund said it expected Venezuela's real GDP to grow by 4% in 2024.

Over the past decade, an estimated 7.7 million Venezuelans have left their homeland in search of better prospects, the largest exodus in Latin America’s recent history and one of the world’s largest displacement crises.

The United Nations refugee agency says about 20 percent of Venezuela's population has fled the country since 2014, citing rampant violence, gang warfare, soaring inflation and shortages of food, medicine and basic services.

Maduro's government has tried to blame the country's economic collapse on the United States and various international sanctions, but analysts point out that Venezuela's economic decline began long before the sanctions were imposed in 2019.

Eileen Gavin, chief analyst at international risk intelligence agency Verisk Maplecroft, said the immigration crisis from Venezuela is "top of mind" for the new US leader ahead of the US presidential election in November this year.

“There are good reasons to want an end to Venezuela’s deep political polarization and economic crisis, and to find a pragmatic solution to lifting sanctions,” Gavin said in an interview.

“The Biden administration’s recent policy toward Venezuela — centered on restarting negotiations aimed at restoring competitive politics and gradually lifting sanctions — fits into this pragmatic political agenda,” Gavin continued. “We therefore expect the current approach to continue — assuming there is no violence in Venezuela. Likewise, it is not in the Maduro regime’s interest to allow significant violence.”

Venezuela is located in the north of South America, across the Caribbean Sea from the United States.