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As of July 25, the 2024 economic "semi-annual reports" of 27 provinces across the country have been released one after another.

In terms of economic aggregate, Guangdong and Jiangsu have entered the "6 trillion yuan club", Shandong and Zhejiang have exceeded 4 trillion yuan; in terms of growth rate, 16 provinces are above the "national line", and Inner Mongolia's growth rate reached 6.2%, temporarily ranking first.

16 provinces have fast GDP growth

Let's first look at the total economic volume. At present, the top ten provinces have all released data. In the first half of this year, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Shandong continued to rank in the top three; Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, Hubei, Fujian, Hunan and Anhui followed closely behind, ranking in the top ten in the country. There were 13 provinces with a GDP of more than 2 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, in addition to the top ten, there are three other provinces, including Shanghai, Hebei and Beijing.

Among them, Guangdong, the province with the largest economy, achieved a regional GDP of 6,524.25 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, but 1.1 percentage points lower than the annual target of 5%.

Looking at the GDP growth rate, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that my country's GDP reached 61.7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. Among the 27 provinces, 16 provinces had GDP growth rates higher than the "national line", namely Inner Mongolia, Chongqing, Tibet, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Gansu, Jilin, Zhejiang, Fujian, Sichuan, Beijing, Xinjiang, Anhui, Guizhou, and Ningxia; Hebei and Liaoning were at the same rate as the national rate. Among them, Inner Mongolia led the way with a growth rate of 6.2%, and Chongqing and Tibet tied for second with a growth rate of 6.1%.

Inner Mongolia's GDP in the first half of the year was 1,168.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the national average during the same period; compared with the first quarter, the actual growth rate increased by 0.3 percentage points, and the economic performance in the second quarter was surprising.

Compared with the annual economic growth target, the GDP growth of eight provinces, including Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Beijing, Tianjin, Chongqing and Inner Mongolia, was better than expected. Among them, Jiangsu's growth rate exceeded the annual target by 0.8 percentage points, which was an outstanding performance.

According to the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the province achieved a regional GDP of 6,332.63 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% at constant prices. The annual GDP growth target proposed in the Jiangsu Provincial Government Work Report this year is more than 5%. The unexpected growth has further narrowed the gap between Jiangsu and Guangdong. The GDP gap between the two provinces in the first half of the year was 191.62 billion yuan.

New quality productivity has a strong momentum of development

my country is currently in a critical period of transforming its development model, optimizing its economic structure, and changing its growth momentum. When observing China's economic development, we should not only look at the "quantity" of economic growth, but also the "effectiveness" of its transformation and the "quality" of its development.

In the first half of the year, the industrial structures of various provinces continued to be optimized, and the pace of transformation towards "new" and "green" has significantly accelerated.

Against the backdrop of highlighting "manufacturing as the dominant force" and promoting the construction of a modern industrial system, Guangdong's new momentum industries have shown significant growth in this year's "semi-annual report".

The added value of Guangdong's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 8.1% and 13.0% respectively, of which high-end electronic information manufacturing increased by 16.3% and aviation, spacecraft and equipment manufacturing increased by 20.9%. The output of high-tech products also grew rapidly, with the output of new energy vehicles, smart phones, integrated circuits and industrial robots increasing by 25.7%, 23.4%, 31.1% and 37.6% respectively.

In Jiangsu's impressive economic "report card", emerging drivers also performed well and the pace of structural upgrading was steady.

In the first half of the year, the output value of high-tech industries and industrial strategic emerging industries in Jiangsu Province accounted for 50.6% and 41.3% of the above-scale industries, respectively, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the first quarter. The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above the scale increased by 8.9% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points faster than the first quarter. The added value of core manufacturing industries of digital products above the scale and specialized "little giants" enterprises increased by 11.4% and 9.5% respectively, both of which were higher than the growth rate of all above-scale industries. At the same time, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries is also accelerating, and investment in industrial technical transformation has increased by 8.9%.

Shandong is accelerating the realization of "green and low-carbon" growth while effectively improving its "quality".

In the first half of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shandong Province increased by 8.5% year-on-year. From the perspective of industry, 39 of the 41 major industrial sectors achieved positive growth; the added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size in the province increased by 8.1% year-on-year. At the same time, Shandong pays attention to energy transformation, coordinates the development of nuclear, wind, light and geothermal energy, and accelerates the construction of five major clean energy bases. From the perspective of installed capacity, the total installed capacity of power generation in Shandong Province reached 220 million kilowatts in the first half of the year, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of new energy and renewable energy power generation increased by 20.2%, accounting for 46.8% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-on-year.

Tang Weiwei, director of the Industrial Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have actively promoted new industrialization, and the country's industrial production above designated size has continued the rapid growth trend since the fourth quarter of last year. The pace of high-end, intelligent and green development of manufacturing has accelerated, and high-quality development has continued to advance.

A combination of policies will build long-term momentum

“The situation has fluctuated, but the trend is still positive.” As we approach the middle of the year, China’s economic development has attracted much attention.

When analyzing the situation in the first half of the year, the spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics said that the slowdown in economic growth in the second quarter also reflects that the difficulties and challenges in the current economic operation have increased, especially the problem of insufficient domestic effective demand and the lack of smoothness in the domestic circulation.

These difficulties and challenges are reflected in the "middle school entrance examination" report cards of various provinces, with insufficient investment momentum becoming the most prominent common manifestation.

Among them, in terms of investment, the reporter found that among the 27 provinces, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 12 provinces was lower than the national overall level of 3.9%, including Guangdong and Jiangsu, two major economic provinces with high GDP rankings. Affected by the 16.8% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment, Guangdong's fixed asset investment fell by 1.5% year-on-year in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from January to May.

Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute, said that the economic performance in June and the second quarter still showed the characteristics of strong production, weak demand and price pressure. At present, external demand is better than domestic demand, and government expenditure (infrastructure) and household expenditure (consumption and real estate) are weak.

When observing the Chinese economy, we should not only look at the "shape" of short-term fluctuations, but also the "momentum" of long-term growth.

Faced with the challenges and difficulties that emerged in the first half of the year, the reporter found that local governments have taken the lead and introduced a series of policy "combination punches" to expand domestic demand, boost confidence, benefit people's livelihood, and prevent risks, which have promoted the stable recovery of the economy and accumulated momentum for long-term development.

In April this year, Guangdong issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Large-Scale Equipment Updates and Trade-ins of Consumer Goods in Guangdong Province", promoting equipment updates and trade-ins of consumer goods in the fields of industry, energy, construction, municipal infrastructure, transportation, agriculture and rural areas, education and teaching, culture and tourism, and medical equipment.

In this year's Guangdong Province "half-year report", the driving effect of the large-scale equipment renewal policy is gradually emerging. In the first half of the year, Guangdong's industrial investment increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which industrial technical transformation investment increased by 18.1%. High-tech industry investment increased by 19.6%, and advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing investment increased by 18.6% and 23.9% respectively.

Yang Xinhong, director of the Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics, said that the secondary industry is expected to remain stable overall in the second half of the year, and may even be stronger than in the first half; certain industries in the tertiary industry are also expected to become relatively stable in the process of bottoming out; in terms of consumption, especially the consumption of some bulk commodities, will be strengthened and improved under the guidance of policies.

Source: Securities Times

Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.

Editor: Lin Lifeng

Proofread by: Wang Chaoquan

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