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Sixth-generation aircraft reduced to pure drones? The US military's move may allow China to win without a fight

2024-07-24

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About the Next Generation of US Military PersonnelfighterR&D projects now seem to have suffered a catastrophic blow.The U.S. Navy's sixth-generation carrier-based fighter project F/A-XX has almost had its congressional appropriations cut, which will directly lead to the suspension or even complete termination of the project.Although the U.S. Air Force's sixth-generation aircraft project NGAD is still being promoted, it is also facing difficulties due to serious overspending, so that the Air Force top brass has to consider reducing the overall performance of NGAD to save money. As for how much the performance of NGAD should be reduced? The U.S. Air Force's operation may be beyond everyone's expectations...

Related reports from US media

According to the authoritative American defense media "War Zone", one of the main reasons why the NGAD fighter project has been troubled is actually related to the research and development of another important equipment that the US Air Force is simultaneously advancing, that is, the "Sentinel" land-based silo-launched intercontinental missile project that will be used to replace the "Minuteman-3" intercontinental missile.Simply put, with the Sentinel missile's R&D overspending alarmingly and costs already reaching 180% of the initial plan, in order to preserve this important project directly related to the U.S. "three-in-one" nuclear strike system, the U.S. Air Force has considered cutting funding for the NGAD fighter jet project and moving that money to the Sentinel missile project, a typical case of "taking money from Peter to pay Paul."

NGAD and unmanned wingman collaborative combat concept diagram

So, how many bricks does the U.S. Air Force intend to remove? The answer is that the NGAD project may be completely transformed into a drone.In the context that the sixth-generation fighter jets will still be dominated by manned fighter jets and the combat effectiveness of drones can only serve as auxiliary combat power, NGAD may become a "pure drone project"It is no exaggeration to say that once the U.S. Air Force is determined to make this decision, it basically means that the United States will withdraw from the sixth-generation aircraft research and development track on its own, which is a manifestation of technological regression and a decline in military strength.

Sentinel ICBM program

The B-21 stealth strategic bomber in the test flight stage

However, from the perspective of the top leaders of the U.S. Air Force, it is probably a last resort to "extremely compress" the performance of the NGAD fighter, thereby squeezing out precious funds and transfusing them to other more important or higher priority projects. At present, it seems that the U.S. Air Force is simultaneously promoting the development of three important new equipment projects, namely the Sentinel intercontinental missile, the B-21 Raider stealth strategic bomber and the sixth-generation fighter NGAD.Among them, the first two projects are directly related to the US "nuclear stick",nuclear weaponWhether the nuclear system can be updated normally not only determines whether the US hegemony is stable, but is also closely linked to the US national security.In this case, at a critical juncture when the two major strategic weapons projects, the Sentinel missile and the B-21 bomber, have already experienced overspending and insufficient funds, NGAD, which is "only" a tactical weapon, will naturally have to "make sacrifices"...

X-62A test aircraft used to test air combat AI

Of course, it must be acknowledged that the United States has the world's top military drone technology, and is still developing and testing air combat AI on the X-62A test aircraft. Unmanned operations are indeed a major development direction for future air combat. However, for at least the next 20 to 30 years, drones equipped with air combat AI may not completely replace manned fighters, and even manned fighters will still dominate in the next 20 to 30 years.On the one hand, air combat AI is still very immature and will take a long time to develop and improve. A large number of emergency decisions in air combat still need to be made by pilots on the front line of the battlefield. On the other hand, military drones still have a visible gap with manned fighters in terms of flight altitude, flight speed, maneuverability and payload, making it difficult for them to replace manned fighters in terms of comprehensive combat capabilities.

J-20Speculative diagram of joint operations with "Attack-11"

Because of this, the air combat mode in the sixth-generation aircraft era is believed to be "man-piloted fighters as the parent aircraft, commanding multiple unmanned wingmen and jointly engaging the enemy". But now, the NGAD project may experience an "epic reduction" - directly turning into unmanned aircraft, what should be done with the manned fighters that are still irreplaceable? Should we "make do" with the existing fifth-generation aircraft? Considering that China is also working hard to develop its own sixth-generation fighter, and we have also made achievements in the fields of air combat AI and unmanned wingmen.In a potential future military struggle, the U.S. Air Force's combination of "fifth-generation manned fighters + sixth-generation unmanned wingmen" is almost impossible to match the PLA Air Force's combination of "sixth-generation manned fighters + sixth-generation unmanned aircraft".

China is expected to seize the lead in the sixth-generation aircraft race

Well, after so many years of twists and turns, the American sixth-generation fighter NGAD, which was once regarded by all walks of life as "must have used a lot of black technology all over the body", may actually become a pure drone project, which is really unexpected.If this funny and ironic scene becomes a reality, then the United States is undoubtedly letting China "win without doing anything", and the possibility of us completely surpassing the United States in the field of fighter jets will become increasingly greater.