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As U.S. President Biden's announcement of his withdrawal from the 2024 presidential election has attracted worldwide attention, Ukrainian President Zelensky's attitude towards the Russia-Ukraine conflict has quietly changed as Biden faces increasing pressure from within the Democratic Party to withdraw from the race. In a speech to the nation last week, Zelensky suggested that Moscow send a delegation to the next peace summit he hopes to hold in November. He had previously insisted that any negotiations could only take place after Russia withdrew its troops from Ukraine. As a result, Russia was not invited to the Ukrainian peace summit held in Switzerland in June this year.

The peace summit held in Switzerland has not played any substantive role in the peaceful resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On the contrary, more than a month after the peace summit, Russia and Ukraine have been planning larger-scale battles on multiple fronts, including Kharkiv, Kupyansk, Seversk, Chasov Yar, Donetsk and Dzerzhinsk. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again reached a staged climax in midsummer 2024. At present, the Russian army is planning and launching large-scale battles on multiple fronts, and its summer offensive will undoubtedly be a strategically significant game.

The outcome of the Third Battle of Kharkov remains unknown

On May 10, the Russian army reopened the Kharkov front. Initially, the Russian army was divided into two routes, the east and the west, and was unstoppable in Lipchi and Volchansk. However, due to the small number of troops deployed in the early stage and Ukraine's rapid response to the Russian army's Kharkov offensive, the Ukrainian leadership attached great importance to the Kharkov counterattack, which led to the rapid setback of the Russian army's edge. Only 10 days after the start of the third Kharkov battle, the Russian army's offensive pace began to stagnate. By early June, with the Ukrainian army's 57th Mechanized Brigade, 82nd Air Assault Brigade, 36th Marine Brigade, 34th Marine Brigade, 153rd Infantry Brigade, 31st Mechanized Brigade and other elite troops were transferred to the Kharkov front with advanced weapons provided by the West. The Ukrainian army's defense force was greatly enhanced, and it was able to launch a full-scale counterattack on the Volchansk and Lipchi fronts.

Since June, the battle in Volchansk has entered a fierce stage. From May 20, the 36th Marine Brigade of the Ukrainian Army and other troops crossed the Volcha River and established a beachhead, launching a counterattack against the Russian troops in the urban area on the north bank of the Volcha River. The Ukrainian Army's river crossing offensive has generally progressed smoothly. After retaking some blocks north of the Volcha River in early June, it gradually expanded its positions based on this. By late June, as the Ukrainian troops gradually controlled the floodplain area on the north bank of the Volcha River and the southern section of the T2108 highway, the northern transportation artery of the city, they formed a cutting and encirclement of a large number of Russian troops in the urban area of ​​Volchansk, resulting in heavy losses to the 83rd Airborne Brigade, the Russian vanguard force. The 810th Marine Brigade under the Black Sea Fleet was urgently deployed to the urban area of ​​Volchansk for reinforcement.

Under the fierce counterattack momentum of the Ukrainian army, the Russian army trapped in the factory area north of the Volcha River also tried to break the unfavorable situation. On July 9, the Russian army organized fighters to force a crossing of the Volcha River from the north bank, trying to surprise the vocational and technical school on the south bank, thereby realizing a counter-encirclement of the Ukrainian troops on the north bank of the Volcha River, but failed. In order to support the counterattack in the main urban area of ​​Volchansk, around June 22, two Ukrainian troops recaptured the village of Tih in the northeastern suburb of Volchansk and Staritsya in the western suburbs and occupied favorable terrain, posing a threat to the Russian flank from the east and west.

At present, the Ukrainian army has also made some progress in Lipchi on the western front. The strategy adopted by the Ukrainian army on the Lipchi front is to avoid the enemy's sharp edge and mainly disrupt the Russian army's rear. In mid-July, the 13th Brigade of the Ukrainian Army launched a pincer attack on the village of Khboki, an important Russian stronghold in the northern suburbs of Lipchi, with the potential to cut the Russian army from north to south. At the same time, Ukrainian troops tried to cross the reservoir in the northwest suburbs of Lipchi to encircle the Russian army. The Ukrainian army invested less troops in the counterattack in Lipchi and achieved few results, but it disrupted the Russian army's combat deployment to a certain extent. The Russian Army's 155th Marine Brigade, which was responsible for the main offensive mission on the Lipchi front, began to partially withdraw from its positions.

In short, the fighting between Russia and Ukraine on the Kharkov front has become fierce. The Ukrainian army's counterattack is currently in full swing. The Russian army is in a relatively unfavorable situation in Kharkov, but the Russian army has not shown any signs of a large-scale retreat, and the outcome of the third Kharkov battle is still unknown.

Russian troops are preparing for large-scale battles on multiple fronts in Luhansk and Severodonetsk

Although the Russian army was in a passive position on the Kharkov front, the Ukrainian army transferred a large number of troops to the Kharkov front to reinforce it, which weakened the defense forces of Luhansk and Donetsk.The Russian army is actively preparing large-scale battles on multiple fronts, including Kupyansk, Seversk, Chasov Yar, Donetsk and Dzerzhinsk.

First, in the Luhansk region, the Russian army began to carry out large-scale bombing and destruction of the rear of the Ukrainian army positions in late June. In particular, on June 19, the Russian army usedAerial bombThe bombing of the Gorokhovatka Bridge over the Oski River caused great damage to the Ukrainian frontline supply. At the same time, the Russian army began to actively prepare for the Battle of Kupyansk in early July. The Russian 1st Guards TankArmyAll the main divisions under the command have been deployed in place. The 4th Guards Tank Division and the 47th Guards Tank Division under the group army defeated the Ukrainian defense forces stationed in Berestov, Pishane River Valley, Olivovsky Gorge and Sherebryansk Forest Area, cut off the Ukrainian reinforcement channel from the Saltov Reservoir to the Chugeyev Highway, and gradually advanced to the Oski River. At the same time, the Taman Division formed a siege from the north and south wings against the 43rd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian main force stationed in the village of Stelimashivka, a major town on the outskirts of Kupyansk. By July 20, the Russian vanguard had reached Sinkivka, only about 6 kilometers away from the city of Kupyansk. A fierce battle for Kupyansk was imminent.

The upcoming Battle of Kupiansk will have great strategic value in breaking the stalemate on the Kharkov and Severodonetsk battlefields.If the Russian army successfully captures Kupiansk, it will pose a threat to Kharkov from the southeast, thereby reducing the pressure on the Russian army in northern Kharkov; secondly, it can form a north-south response with the Russian army's offensive in the Severodonetsk region.If the Russian army makes smooth progress in the Battle of Seversk, then important cities such as Izyum and Kremlin will likely be recaptured by the Russian army.

In Severodonetsk, the Russian army's Seversk campaign has already begun. On June 18, the Russian army's 106th Airborne Division and other elite troops completed the encirclement of several Ukrainian strongholds outside Seversk, including Rozdolivka, Ivanodar, and Bilogrivka, and successively captured these strongholds from June 27 to mid-July. The Russian army's occupation of Rozdolivka and Ivanodar means that it has occupied the high ground in the suburbs of Seversk, and can rely on favorable terrain to tighten the encirclement of Seversk step by step. In early July, the Ukrainian army mobilized the 10th Mountain Assault Brigade and the 24th Mechanized Brigade to reinforce. These troops built a triple defense position on the plains outside the city of Seversk and were ready to fight.

In Chasov Yar, the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, the 5th Assault Brigade, the 80th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Army stationed there, and the 98th Airborne Division of the Russian Army against them are all elite troops of both sides. The Russian and Ukrainian sides fought fiercely for more than three months in the important strongholds of Kalinina and the Vocational and Technical School in the eastern suburbs of the city. These two strongholds were briefly occupied by the Russian army in mid-June and then quickly changed hands. During this period, in order to break the deadlock, the Russian army tried many times to cross the canal to conduct strong firepower reconnaissance in the main urban area of ​​Chasov Yar in order to achieve a roundabout encirclement of the Vocational and Technical School, but the Russian army crossing the river was fiercely counterattacked by the Ukrainian army in the city. It was not until July 4 that the 217th Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division of Russia announced the reoccupation of the Vocational and Technical School, and based on this, gradually cleared the remaining Ukrainian forces in the forest area around the Vocational and Technical School, so that the Russian army's positions in the Vocational and Technical School and Kalinina were connected.

Facing the crisis in Chasov Yar, the Ukrainian army mobilized the 33rd Mechanized Brigade formed with the help of NATO to rush to Chasov Yar. By July 20, the Russian and Ukrainian armies had basically formed a standoff along the canal in the city. Once the Russian troops force their way across the canal and launch a formal attack on the main city of Chasov Yar, the fierce street fighting will undoubtedly turn Chasov Yar into the next Bakhmut and Avadiyevka.

Russian troops seize the opportunity to launch a full-scale attack on the Donetsk front

Since the third battle of Kharkov began, the Russian troops entrenched in Donetsk took advantage of the opportunity of a large number of Ukrainian troops being transferred north to reinforce Kharkov, fully utilizing the strategic location of Donetsk's transportation hub to launch an all-out attack.

First, on the northern front of Donetsk, starting from June 19, the Russian 27th Guards Motorized Rifle Division and the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade, with the cooperation of the Donetsk People's Army, began to attack Dzerzhinsk to the north. The Russian offensive partially broke through the defense line built by the Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade, the 41st Mechanized Brigade and the 95th Airborne Assault Brigade. In late June, they captured the village of Shumey on the eastern outskirts of Dzerzhinsk as a forward base. At the same time, they marched towards Artyomovo in the southeast of Dzerzhinsk and Kirove and Friendship Village in the northeast, trying to clamp down on the Ukrainian troops stationed in Dzerzhinsk from the north and south wings. Faced with the strong offensive momentum of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army sent the 32nd Mechanized Brigade to Dzerzhinsk for reinforcement.

In order to cooperate with the Dzerzhinsk offensive, the Russian army put the attack on Novgorodsk, a major town south of Dzerzhinsk, on the agenda. Around July 1, Russian troops bypassed the Ukrainian defense line in the east of the city and approached Novgorodsk from the south along the railway line. Currently, the Russian army is making good progress in Novgorodsk, and the two sides have entered the street fighting stage here. If the Russian army captures Novgorodsk, the Ukrainian flank defending Dzerzhinsk will be exposed to the threat of the Russian army.

Secondly, on the northeastern front of Donetsk, the elite troops of the Russian 90th Guards Tank Division continued to expand the fruits of victory in the Ocheretine surprise attack since May, and further pushed the salient to the villages of Novo-Olesandrivka and Novo-Pokrovsk. After fierce fighting, the 25th Airborne Brigade of the Ukrainian Army stationed here retreated step by step. In order to cooperate with the offensive on the Ocheretine front, the Russian 15th Motorized Infantry Brigade, the 55th Mountain Brigade and other troops formed a pincer attack on Novo-Serifka-Biersha from the north and south. The Ukrainian army initially concentrated a large number of troops in Novo-Serifka-Biersha, but because there were few buildings to build defensive positions, and the high ground on the outskirts of the city had basically fallen into the hands of the Russian army, in order to avoid the large forces being completely surrounded by the Russian army, most of the Ukrainian troops stationed here began to retreat, leaving only the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 3rd Azov Assault Brigade to cover the retreat of the large forces. By July 20, about half of the area within the settlement of Novoserifka-Beersa had fallen into the hands of the Russian army. Judging from the actions of the Russian army, its strategic intention to clamp down on the Red Army Village from the north and south was quite obvious.

Finally, on the eastern front of Donetsk, since June 24, the Russian 20th Guards Motorized Infantry Division, 39th Guards Motorized Infantry Brigade, 57th Guards Motorized Infantry Division and other units have strengthened the offensive in Krasnogovka and have currently occupied about half of the city. Although Krasnogovka is not the main attack direction of the Russian army here, maintaining the offensive advantage in Krasnogovka is of vital importance to ensuring the safety of the Russian army's flank on the Ocheretine salient.

The Russian army is working on multiple fronts to prepare for the 2024 summer offensive

The Russian army launched the 2024 summer offensive, with multiple lines of coordination, affecting the entire battlefield situation. If the Russian army progresses smoothly in the next period of time, it will seize more battlefield initiative and put the Ukrainian army into a more passive position. In order to cooperate with the multi-line Russian army operations, the Russian army on the Zaporizhia front, which has been relatively quiet for a long time, has also made some large-scale actions. On July 3, the Russian Army's 40th Marine Brigade, the 5th Tank Brigade, and the 37th Guards Motorized Infantry Brigade captured the village of Ulozain on the eastern outskirts of Staromayorsk, and used this as a basis to continuously expand their positions.It will also be worth observing whether the Russian army will subsequently plan a larger-scale battle on the Zaporizhia front.

Clausewitz pointed out that the best strategy in war is to always maintain a strong position against the enemy. To maintain this strong position, it is necessary not only to concentrate the forces in space, but more importantly, to unify the forces in time."Unity of Force in Time"It means that force can be used continuously on multiple fronts, and the use of these forces should be coordinated with each other to form an interaction so that local battles can serve to win greater strategic goals. The Russian summer offensive in 2024 will be multi-line, and the entire front will be treated as a big chess game, which precisely reflects the "unity of time" of the troops. Judging from the current movements of the Russian army, its phased strategic intention is to completely seize Donetsk Oblast while occupying the advantageous position of Luhansk Oblast as much as possible, and further attack the Ukrainian army in Kharkiv Oblast from the north and south.

It is also worth noting that long before the first Ukrainian Peace Summit, Putin proposed conditions for achieving a ceasefire between the two sides, and the current Ukrainian President Zelensky has also changed his previous tough attitude and publicly expressed his willingness to conduct peace talks with Russia. Against this background, the purpose of the Russian army's summer offensive is not only to seize more strategic space, but also to win more bargaining chips for a ceasefire.

(Li Shuqi, PhD student in ethnic sociology at Peking University)