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Recently, there has been a trend of accidental firing between the United States and Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense recently stated thatTwo US B-52 bombers appeared over the Barents Sea and headed straight for the Russian border.After discovering the target, a MiG-29 fighter and a MiG-31 fighter on duty of the Russian air defense force immediately took off and intercepted it.As the Russian fighter jets approached, the above-mentioned US military aircraft quickly turned around and flew away from the Russian border.

In fact, this is not the first or second time that American planes have flown to Russia’s doorstep.Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has repeatedly deployed drones and bombers to Russia's Far East and the North Atlantic for deterrence, especially in the Baltic Sea and the Barents Sea, where the frequency of flights has increased significantly.For example, in March this year, two B-1B Lancer strategic bombers of the US Air Force approached the Russian border from the airspace over the Barents Sea and were intercepted by a Russian MiG-31 fighter.

The reason why American bombers appear so frequently around the Russian border is actually easy to understand:

First, the move is intended to militarily deter Russia;SecondlyProviding support and confidence to allies, enhance the sense of security of countries on NATO's eastern flank, especially those bordering Russia; third,Surveillance and intelligence gathering: The bomber's flight mission is not only a display of strength, but also includes surveillance and intelligence gathering. Russia currently has the upper hand in the conflict. Understanding Russia's military movements and deployments can help the Ukrainian army make better judgments and strategic decisions.

But it should be noted thatThis time, the US bombers approached the Russian border under the circumstances of full tension between the US and Russia.For Russia, what the United States fears most is not the occasional "visits" of its bombers, but the nuclear weapons it has deployed in Europe.The United States has deployed about 150 nuclear bombs in Europe, including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, etc.And the United States is constantly updating its nuclear arsenal through various means.

For example, the United States and Germany recently stated in a joint statement that the United States will deploy long-range firepower weapons in Germany in stages starting in 2026, including the Standard-6 missile, the Tomahawk missile, and theHypersonicWeapons, etc.Although the weapons list released by the United States does not include nuclear weapons, the Russian side has made it clear that it does not rule out the possibility that the United States will take this opportunity to deploynuclear weapon。

There is no doubt that the United States' step-by-step approach has made Russia nervous. Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov revealed thatRussia is engaging in telephone contacts with the United States at various levels, but with no apparent effect.In this case, the United States sent two bombers capable of carrying nuclear missiles to approach the Russian border, which could easily touch Russia's sensitive nerves.If there is a misjudgment on both sides and an accidental shooting occurs, the consequences will be catastrophic.

For the United States at present, it would be a wise choice to moderately restrain the intensity of provocations against Russia, but the Biden administration has done the opposite, acting as if it is not afraid of making things bigger, and it is obvious that it has other intentions.In my opinion, this may be a hurdle that Biden deliberately left for Trump.

Judging from the current election situation, Trump has shown a leading advantage, while Biden has been ruthlessly kicked out.Biden took the initiative to withdraw from the election, but in fact, Biden was forced to make this choice.：

On the one hand, his poor performance in the previous rounds of debates caused his financial backers and most people in the Democratic Party to lose confidence in him. Hundreds of financial backers jointly asked him to withdraw from the election as soon as possible.Even former President Obama and his right-hand man Harris asked Biden to withdraw as soon as possible.On the other hand, the shooting incident a few days ago made Trump an "American fighter" in the hearts of many people. His approval rating once reached about 70%. Compared with him, Biden does not have much advantage in winning the election.

Today, the candidate with the highest voice to succeed Biden is Harris. However, Harris' personal ability has always been questioned. She has been involved in personal scandals during her career, the so-called "mistress rumors". Therefore, Harris has always had the defect of "not being justified" on the political stage. If she unexpectedly ascends to a high position because of Biden's recommendation, it will obviously be difficult to convince the public. Overall,After Biden withdraws from the election, there is a high possibility that Trump will return to office.

But Biden couldn't help feeling unwilling to hand over the presidency to his "mortal enemy", so it was understandable that he would cause some "little trouble".

So where should we start to find this "little trouble"? We have to start with what Trump is most concerned about. Previously, Trump has said more than once thatAfter taking office, he promised to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict within one day, and also made it clear that he would have dialogue with Putin at the appropriate time.

It is not difficult to infer that Trump is likely to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict by sacrificing Ukraine after taking office. If Russia and the United States accidentally fire at this time, the situation Trump will face after taking office will be very difficult:How to balance policy toward Russia, maintain relations with allies, deal with domestic political pressure, and respond to the response of the international community will all be huge challenges.

With Trump's current ability, it is obviously difficult for him to handle these problems in a short period of time. By then, he will inevitably be accused and criticized by all parties, and his international reputation and fame may even be worse than Biden's current one.

Of course, these are just my unilateral guesses.But no matter what the purpose of the US military's violation of the Russian border is, the risks it brings cannot be ignored.From China's perspective, this requires us to be prepared to prevent unexpected events.