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Can Nvidia's new "China-exclusive" chips win back the Chinese market?

2024-07-24

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Our reporter Yang Shuyu Our special correspondent Chen Xin

According to an exclusive report by Reuters on the 22nd, four people familiar with the matter revealed that artificial intelligence chip giant Nvidia is developing a new flagship artificial intelligence chip for the Chinese market that will be compatible with current US export control regulations.

Two of the sources said Nvidia will work with Inspur, one of its main distributors in China, to launch and distribute the chip, tentatively named "B20." Another source told Reuters that the "B20" is scheduled to start shipping in the second quarter of 2025. However, Inspur responded to investors on the interactive platform on the 22nd that the company is not currently conducting any business or cooperation related to "B20."

Last November, Nvidia developed a custom chip H20 series for the Chinese market to comply with US export regulations. However, due to the "castrated" performance and high price, it performed poorly when it was first delivered. Taiwan's Electronic Times also said that Nvidia launched a performance-downgraded version of the AI ​​chip H20 designed specifically for China, but Chinese customers lacked interest. Only recently did sales begin to grow. However, data shows that in the year ending at the end of January, the Chinese market accounted for about 17% of Nvidia's total revenue, compared with 26% two years ago.

Reuters analysis said that the tightening of US export controls has helped Chinese technology giants Huawei and Tencent-backed startups such as Enflame make a series of progress in the domestic advanced AI processor market. Reuters previously quoted sources as saying that Chinese companies are reluctant to buy downgraded H20s due to concerns that the United States may tighten restrictions again and are testing domestic alternatives. Last year, search engine giant Baidu ordered artificial intelligence chips from Huawei to replace Nvidia's products. According to sources, in terms of specifications, the H20 is not as capable as Huawei's Ascend 910B in some key areas, and its rating is less than half of the 910B in terms of the key indicator of its speed in processing common tasks.

Gu Wenjun, chief analyst at China Strategy Analytics, told the Global Times that "the new special edition is unlikely to achieve greater success." Although overall, Nvidia has an advantage over domestic chips, and domestic chips are currently only eating into Nvidia's domestic market in small bites, "except for advantages in ecological matching and ease of use, Nvidia's overall performance is already inferior to some domestic chips."

Xiang Ligang, chairman of the Zhongguancun Information Consumption Alliance, said that the Chinese market has gradually developed into a market that does not need Nvidia. The "special edition" is currently difficult to guarantee even the basic stable supply, not to mention meeting the growing computing power needs of Chinese companies. Therefore, the Chinese market is unlikely to bet on Nvidia's products this time. As reported by Barron's, any more powerful chips may trigger concerns about more sanctions from the United States, while processors with poorer performance face increasingly strong competition from domestic companies such as Huawei.

The decline in product attractiveness, coupled with external political risks, in such an environment, "it (Nvidia) will irreversibly and gradually lose the Chinese market." Xiang Ligang analyzed. ▲