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Five departments issued an important document to optimize the layout of the electrolytic aluminum industry and capacity regulation.

Another example of cooperation between listed companies and the Middle East

Wanhua ChemicalAn announcement was made yesterday evening that the company and its holding subsidiary Wanrong New Materials held a signing ceremony for the "Project Cooperation Agreement" with Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Borealis, and Borouge Chemicals in Beijing on July 23, 2024.

According to the agreement, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, Borealis, Borouge Chemicals and Wanrong New Materials, which form an investment consortium, will jointly build a feasibility study of a special polyolefin integrated facility with an annual production capacity of 1.6 million tons in Fuzhou City, Fujian Province, with a 50%:50% shareholding ratio, subject to the approval of relevant laws and regulations. The agreement is a principled framework agreement. After the specific cooperation matters are clarified, the company will fulfill the corresponding decision-making, approval procedures and information disclosure obligations.

It is worth noting that after the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority entered Wanhua Chemical in the third quarter of 2023 and became the eighth largest shareholder, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority continued to increase its holdings in Wanhua Chemical in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year. Its latest shareholding is 22.0894 million shares, and it is still the eighth largest shareholder. Calculated based on the latest stock price, the market value of its holdings is 1.759 billion yuan.

Wanhua Chemical's latest market value is more than 250 billion yuan, making it the chemical stock with the highest market value in the A-share market. It is also known as the "Chemical Mao". Wanhua Chemical's cooperation with Abu Dhabi began as early as 2019. In July of that year, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company and China Wanhua Chemical signed a cooperation framework agreement and a joint venture agreement, with a potential value of up to US$12 billion.

Five departments issued important documents on electrolytic aluminum

Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and five other departments issued theSpecial Action Plan for Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction in the Electrolytic Aluminum IndustryThe plan mentioned that the industrial layout and capacity control will be optimized, the electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement policy will be strictly implemented, and no new electrolytic aluminum capacity will be added in key areas for air pollution prevention and control. Newly built and expanded electrolytic aluminum projects must reach the energy efficiency benchmark level and environmental performance level A, and major energy-consuming equipment must reach advanced energy efficiency levels.

By the end of 2025, the proportion of production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the electrolytic aluminum industry will reach 30%, and production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level will complete technical transformation or be eliminated.The proportion of renewable energy utilization in the industry reached more than 25%, and the output of recycled aluminum reached 11.5 million tons.By implementing energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformation, the electrolytic aluminum industry will save approximately 2.5 million tons of standard coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 6.5 million tons from 2024 to 2025.

In the first half of this year, domestic policies related to real estate, rail transit, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics and other industries were frequently introduced, continuously releasing favorable policies to boost the demand for aluminum and stimulate the strengthening of aluminum prices. Aluminum prices entered a strong upward channel and continued until the end of May.

Subsequently, the news turned weak, and the aluminum industry is currently in the traditional off-season, with weak downstream purchasing intentions and increased aluminum ingot inventory, and aluminum prices have fallen significantly from high levels. Since mid-July, aluminum prices have entered a downward channel again, with the main Shanghai aluminum falling below 19,500 yuan/ton, and the average spot aluminum (A00) price at 19,280 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Zhuochuang Information Analysis predicts that the electrolytic aluminum market will first fall and then rise in the second half of the year, and will retreat again at the end of the year due to seasonal influences. Supported by the good basic pattern of aluminum products, the operating range may be high at 19,000 to 22,000 yuan per ton. According to seasonal laws, the high point in the second half of the year is likely to appear in October, and the low point may appear in July.

Aluminum stocks' earnings forecast is positive

At present, the second quarterly reports of funds have been disclosed. According to the statistics of Securities Times Databao,Aluminum Corporation of China, Tianshan Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum18 stocks including Aluminum Corporation of China and Shenhuo Group were all held by funds in the second quarter, among which the number of funds holding shares of Aluminum Corporation of China and Shenhuo Group exceeded 100. Compared with the data at the end of the first quarter, the number of funds holding shares of Aluminum Corporation of China, Tianshan Aluminum and Mingtai Aluminum in the second quarter increased by 45, 68 and 9 respectively.

From the perspective of changes in fund holdings,Shenhuo Co., Ltd., Dingsheng New Materials, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., Tianshan Aluminum, Aluminum Corporation of ChinaThe fund shareholding ratio of all of them exceeded 5%; the fund shareholding ratio of Tianshan Aluminum, Dingsheng New Materials, Shenhuo Co., Ltd. and Aluminum Corporation of China all increased by more than 1 percentage point month-on-month.

In the first half of 2024, the aluminum industry chain is booming, and many listed aluminum companies have forecast good performance in the first half of the year. Among the 30 non-ferrous aluminum concept stocks, 16 have already released their first-half performance forecasts, of which 12 have forecast good performance.

Aluminum Corporation of ChinaThe lower limit of net profit is expected to be the highest. The company predicts a net profit of approximately 6.5 billion yuan to 7.3 billion yuan, an increase of approximately 90.00% to 114.00% over the same period last year.

Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd.Net profit is second, and the company expects net profit attributable to the parent company to be 2.4 billion to 2.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 58.42% to 71.62%. The company said that in the first half of the year, it accelerated the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and achieved a significant increase in the electrolytic aluminum production capacity load rate; at the same time, it seized the market opportunity of rising aluminum prices, continued to increase marketing efforts, and actively expanded the market. The production and sales volume of the company's aluminum products increased significantly year-on-year.

Chang Aluminum Co., Ltd., Yongmaotai, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Tianshan AluminumThe net profit growth rate in the first half of the year ranked first, with an estimated year-on-year increase of more than 100%. Chang Aluminum Co., Ltd. predicts a net profit of about 30 million to 39 million yuan, an increase of about 936.00% to 1246.00% over the same period last year.

Statement: All information content of Databao does not constitute investment advice. The stock market is risky and investment should be cautious.

Editor: Lin Lifeng

Proofread by: Tang Haocheng

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