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In the past programs, we have introduced the bilateral defense agreement negotiations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia relies on the security guarantees of the United States, and the United States expects the establishment of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and even wants to weaken China's influence in the Middle East. However, with the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, coupled with the huge pressure on Arab countries caused by the humanitarian disaster caused by the Gaza War, the Saudi royal family has also made a new request to the United States: sell F-35. In the past two days, a hot news came that Saudi Arabia and the United States are close to reaching a bilateral defense agreement, and it involves the sale of F-35. If this is true, it means that the United States is giving up its efforts to shape Israel's unique military advantage in order to exclude China's FC-31 from the Middle East market.

There have been rumors about Saudi Arabia's possible purchase of FC-31 for a long time, especially as Chinese military enterprises continue to promote FC-31 at the Middle East Air Show and Arms Show, which has plunged the United States into unprecedented anxiety. In the past, the United States only gave Israel F-35, and Arab countries refused to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. Previously, the Trump administration agreed to export F-35 to the UAE, but it was later ruined by the Biden administration, simply because it was unwilling to undermine its favoritism towards Israel. However, the current situation is very uncomfortable for the United States. On the one hand, the UAE has purchased L-15 trainer aircraft from China, which is almost equivalent to announcing the possibility of purchasing FC-31 in the future, which can also break Israel's advantage of exclusively owning stealth fighters in the Middle East; on the other hand, since the outbreak of the Gaza War, the road to reconciliation between Arab countries and Israel has been almost blocked, and the United States must pay a greater price to break the deadlock, which makes it very likely to agree to export F-35 to Saudi Arabia.

White House national security spokesman John Kirby said the two sides are "closer than ever" to a "near-final" bilateral agreement. One of the core principles of the agreement is that the United States will formally guarantee the defense of the Saudi Kingdom in exchange for Riyadh limiting or suspending its purchase of weapons from China. A U.S. official said part of the agreement includes discussing the United States providing Saudi Arabia with F-35 fighter jets and other weapons.

Until now, the main obstacle to selling F-35s to Saudi Arabia has been Washington's obligations to Israel. A long-standing agreement between the United States and Israel stipulates that arms sales in the Middle East cannot jeopardize Israel's "qualitative military advantage."

Therefore, the United States now has to weigh the pros and cons. If Saudi Arabia does not agree to export F-35, it is likely to purchase FC-31 from China, and it is even less likely to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. If it agrees to export, Israel will be dissatisfied, and Saudi Arabia may not necessarily agree to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. However, after Saudi Arabia obtains F-35, it will not only strengthen the United States' security commitment to Arab countries, but also ensure Saudi Arabia's long-term dependence on the United States for training, maintenance, logistics and interoperability. At a time when Saudi Arabia and Iran are reconciling, the United States needs this deal even more and impact China's influence in the Middle East.

In fact, as long as the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is not good, Riyadh will choose to accelerate the purchase of weapons from China. According to foreign media reports, in 2022, Saudi Arabia and China signed a new arms deal worth $4 billion, including armed drones, ballistic missiles and anti-drone laser-based systems. China and Saudi Arabia held a joint naval exercise in October 2023, which also made the United States uncomfortable.

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia will also take advantage of the competition between China and the United States in order to pursue greater interests. For example, Saudi Crown Prince Salman will restrict Chinese technology from entering the country's most sensitive networks in exchange for major US investments in artificial intelligence and quantum computing, and obtain US help to build its civilian nuclear program.

So, will the United States really agree to export F-35 to Saudi Arabia? It should be a long way off. Apart from other things, the United States will definitely use this matter as a threat, hoping that Saudi Arabia will agree to establish diplomatic relations with Israel, so as not to violate the US security commitment to Israel. However, based on the humanitarian disaster caused by the Israeli army's attack on Rafah, the Saudi royal family really dare not go too far. In order to obtain the US security commitment, Saudi Arabia may not necessarily buy FC-31, but it will definitely use the China factor to threaten the United States. This game is probably still a very long way to go.