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Cailianshe News, July 19 (Editor: Shi Zhengcheng)Well-known consumer electronics analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote on Thursday that although there have been occasional reports of Apple increasing iPhone 16 orders in the market after WWDC in June, judging from the latest statements from suppliers, this matter is questionable. He also questioned the underlying logic of "Apple Intelligence" pushing up demand for replacement phones in the second half of the year.

(Source: Medium)

Just last week,Some media quoted insiders as saying that "Apple expects iPhone shipments to increase by 10% this year." The subsequent "disclosure dispute" among various parties will surely be very interesting.。

There won’t be much change in iPhone 16 orders in the second half of the year?

Guo Mingchi said that even though there is news of "Apple placing additional orders" in the market, the recent earnings conferences (financial report briefings) of two key Apple suppliers, TSMC and Largan, both hinted that Apple did not increase its orders for the iPhone 16.

For example, TSMC said "we have not seen a sudden increase in shipment growth", while Largan Precision, a manufacturer of optical and optoelectronic equipment, bluntly stated that "orders for high-end models are similar to last year."

Ming-Chi Kuo explained that:There are indeed some specific suppliers that saw an increase in iPhone 16 orders in the second half of the year, but from the perspective of EMS factories/assembly, iPhone 16 orders in the second half of the year remained unchanged at approximately 87 million units, lower than the 91 million units ordered for the iPhone 15 series in the same period last year.If the trends of Largan and TSMC are consistent with those of the assembly plants, it will be quite informative.

He also said,Increased order volumes at certain suppliers may be due to specific reasons for individual industries or components.

Is “Apple intelligence” driving the trend of phone replacement?

What may be even more frustrating to many analysts is that Kuo also questioned the claim that "Apple Intelligence" will drive the replacement trend in the second half of the year. This is also the underlying logic behind many analysts' recent praise for Apple.

He pointed out that Apple Intelligence, which will be launched with the iPhone 16 in the second half of this year, is only a BETA version for testing by US users and only supports English. Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive the wave of phone replacement,Is it too optimistic to expect consumers to buy new iPhones in the second half of this year just to test the version of Apple Intelligence?

Previous article: According to reports, shipments in the second half of the year are expected to reach 90 million units

In the relevant revelations last Wednesday (July 10), some media quoted people familiar with the industry chain as saying that Apple has told suppliers and partners that the company's goal is to increase shipments of the new iPhone by 10% compared with the previous generation. In the second half of 2023, a total of 81 million iPhone 15 series units will be shipped.

This revelation means that Apple expects iPhone 16 series shipments to exceed 90 million units in the second half of this year. People familiar with the matter also said that Apple already believes that some of the "Apple smart" features added to the iPhone 16 will help increase consumer demand when it goes on sale later this year.