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Russian media: The Ukrainian army has prepared 16 brigades and may launch a new round of counterattack

2024-07-18

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After Trump escaped assassination, Ukraine's prospects are becoming increasingly bleak. Both Trump himself and his vice presidential candidate Vance have firmly stated that they want to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict immediately. Western media said that Trump's election prospects are bullish, which has "sent chills to Ukraine's spine." In order to find a way out for himself, the Zelensky government is planning a new round of counterattacks. Russian media said that the Ukrainian army is trying to launch a new round of large-scale offensives before the US election.

As the possibility of Trump's "re-entry into the White House" has greatly increased, the possibility of Zelensky becoming a "discarded pawn" has also increased. In recent days, Republican officials said that Trump will talk directly with Putin to discuss ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In this case, the US military aid to Ukraine is likely to be reduced to the minimum.

Some people may say, "Even if the United States stops providing aid to Ukraine, Ukraine can still get support from other NATO countries, and the prospects of the Zelensky government are not as bad as imagined." But don't forget that the United States is the one who makes the decisions in NATO. Once Washington decides to change its position on the Russia-Ukraine issue, European countries will soon follow suit.

Moreover, Trump is a man who dares to take direct action against NATO. Since Trump has promised to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office, as long as Trump wins the election, both the United States and Europe will change their positions on the Russia-Ukraine issue in a short period of time. Trump's deputy Vance has already made it clear that Ukraine needs to be prepared to "cede territory for peace."

For the Zelensky government, if Ukraine really ends the Russian-Ukrainian conflict by "ceding territory for peace", Zelensky will become a sinner in Ukraine, and he has almost no chance of winning the next presidential election in Ukraine. The Ukrainian people will clearly see that this protracted conflict has caused half of Ukrainians to flee their homeland and hundreds of thousands of people have died in the war.

Not only that, Ukraine's entire economic system was destroyed, valuable assets were "packaged and given away" to Western countries, and Ukraine was burdened with a huge debt that it could never repay. You know, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine was the country with the lowest income in Europe. After the conflict, the situation of the Ukrainian people will only become more difficult.

Once Zelensky loses power, he will easily become the "target of liquidation" by some Ukrainians. In addition to Ukrainians, Russia will not let Zelensky go, and the United States will basically have no place for Zelensky. In this way, it will be difficult for Zelensky to avoid a "tragic" fate.

Therefore, Ukraine is currently starting its final frenzy, and the Zelensky government is planning a new counterattack that is "doomed to failure." According to Reference News, the Russian Independent website pointed out that in order to organize a new round of counterattacks, the Ukrainian army has prepared 8 motorized infantry brigades and mechanized brigades, which together are about one army group.

These 16 brigades are expected to be deployed in the Kharkov direction. As early as last month, the Ukrainian top leaders issued an order to the Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief, asking him to launch a counterattack against Russia in the Kharkov direction. Currently, the Russian forces deployed in the Kharkov direction mainly include the "Northern" Army Group and part of the "Western" Army Group, and the forces are roughly at the same level as the "counterattack group" prepared by Ukraine.

As early as early July, Zelensky called on NATO countries to lend a helping hand to equip Ukraine's 14 brigades with artillery shells, anti-aircraft weapons and armored vehicles. This "counterattack" is likely to take place in early autumn.

Czech President Peter Pavel confirmed this, saying that under the terms of the "Czech Initiative", Ukraine will receive 50,000 rounds of artillery shells each in July and August. Starting in September, Ukraine will receive 80,000 to 100,000 rounds of artillery shells per month. With such supplies, the Ukrainian army will be able to fire 1,500 to 3,000 shells per day on the front line, which will greatly improve the situation of the Ukrainian army.

Russian media pointed out that if the Ukrainian army concentrates most of its artillery shells in one main direction, the density of Ukrainian artillery fire will increase significantly. In this way, in addition to counterattacking Kharkiv, the Ukrainian army may also try to open up a land route to the Sea of ​​Azov again. In addition, Ukraine will also receive fourth-generation F-16 fighter jets, a new batch of "Patriot" air defense systems, and high-precision missiles before the end of summer.

From this we can see that Ukraine is preparing for war, and Western countries are providing Ukraine with more advanced weapons. However, today's Russian army has a stronger combat effectiveness and greater strategic advantages than last year's Russian army.

With just these troops and weapons, Ukraine can hardly win in the "counterattack". Take the F-16 fighter jets as an example. According to optimistic estimates, the Ukrainian army can only receive 6 F-16s in the next few months, which is not enough to change the balance of power between the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Therefore, "counterattack against Russia" is probably not the best option for the Ukrainian army at present.