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Reference News reported on July 17 The attempted assassination of Donald Trump could have an impact on the Ukrainian conflict because it increases the possibility of the politician winning the autumn US presidential election. The former US president said he knew how to stop combat operations, in which case military aid to Kiev would likely be reduced to a minimum.

However, Kiev is expected to receive help from other NATO countries, as confirmed by the long-term agreement adopted at the recent NATO summit in Washington. Experts still believe that the Ukrainian armed forces are trying to launch a new large-scale offensive before the US election.

In order to attempt the offensive, the Ukrainian army prepared eight motorized infantry brigades and mechanized brigades, which together amounted to about one army group.

According to rough estimates, Russian troops of equal strength are fighting in the direction of Kharkiv. But Ukraine seems to be preparing. For example, in early July, Ukrainian President Zelensky called on Western allies to equip 14 Ukrainian brigades for the upcoming counterattack. The counterattack is likely to take place in early autumn, when the Ukrainian army will replenish artillery shells, anti-aircraft weapons and armored vehicles.

Czech President Peter Pavel told the media that under the "Czech Initiative", Ukraine will receive 50,000 rounds of artillery shells each in July and August, and from September to the end of the year, 80,000 to 100,000 rounds of artillery shells will be received each month.

Military expert and retired Lieutenant General Yuri Netkachev told The Independent: "With such supplies, the Ukrainian army can use an average of 1,500 to 3,000 artillery shells on the front line every day. The Ukrainian army will launch a counterattack. If some of the ammunition is concentrated in the main direction of attack, the density of artillery fire will increase significantly. Under certain conditions, the Ukrainian army may organize an offensive in the direction of Donbass or Melitopol to try to reach the Sea of ​​​​Azov. In addition, the Ukrainian army is expected to obtain fourth-generation fighters F-16, high-precision missiles, and a new batch of 'Patriot' and SAMP/T air defense systems before the end of summer."

The expert believes that the offensive attempted by the Ukrainian army is doomed to fail. Netkachev pointed out: "The weapons given to Kiev by the West are not enough to launch a large-scale offensive. In the next few months, the Ukrainian army will only receive 6 F-16s, and about 20 by the end of the year. This number of aircraft cannot allow Kiev to gain air superiority and turn the tide of the war. Western experts have also talked about this."

Bloomberg News published an article saying that the ambitions of bringing the F-16 to Ukraine were destroyed by language barriers, runways and spare parts. It quoted Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, as saying that Ukrainian airports where F-16 fighters are deployed will become "good targets" and the Russians have already hit some of them as a welcome to the F-16 to the real world.

Bloomberg said that in the months since Ukrainian pilots began training (including 12 trained in the United States), the battlefield situation has changed. Both sides of the conflict have begun to rely on cheap drones, and Russia has also strengthened its air defenses.

"If professional mercenaries were allowed to fly the F-16s, the combat effectiveness of these fighters might be improved, but there are problems," Netkachev said. "For example, there are reports that the West refuses to send F-16 pilots to Ukraine as instructors. Through the controlled oligarchs, the Kiev authorities were able to put together four mercenary crews, but even they refused to fly near the front lines."

According to Bloomberg, the Ukrainian troops equipped with F-16s will be assisted by about 700 NATO professionals. If Trump wins, they are unlikely to be Americans. Bloomberg said that relevant institutions at three pilot training centers in Poland, Slovakia and Romania will ensure the continued flight and weapon supply of these fighters.

(Compiled by Zhao Zhipeng)