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Apple is seriously underestimated! iPhone shipments will exceed 500 million units in the next two years

2024-07-16

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Fast Technology reported on July 16 that according to media reports, Morgan Stanley analyst Eric Woodring is optimistic about Apple's prospects and raised Apple's target share price from US$216 to US$273.

Woodring believes that Apple's artificial intelligence platform "Apple Intelligence" will inspire a new wave of users to upgrade their smartphones, tablets and computers, and it is expected that iPhone shipments will exceed 500 million units in the next two years.

Woodring noted that the market had previously underestimated the importance of the upcoming iPhone upgrade cycle, and the launch of Apple Intelligence features will be a significant catalyst for a multi-year upgrade cycle.

He predicts that iPhone shipments will reach 235 million units in fiscal 2025 and increase to 262 million units in fiscal 2026, and 66-69% of iPhone shipments will be new models, driving the average selling price of the iPhone to increase by 4-5% annually.

In addition, Woodling also mentioned that in addition to AI capabilities, the firm belief in the upgrade cycle is also due to three unprecedented factors: an installed base of more than 1.3 billion devices, a longer upgrade cycle of 4.8 years on average, and new technologies accounting for only 8% of the iPhone/iPad installed base.

Currently, only 24% of iPads support running Apple Intelligence, which means that the iPad market is also expected to usher in a wave of upgrades.

Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan also released a research report last week, predicting that generative AI will increase the willingness to replace iPhones, bringing strong sales growth and profit margin expansion, and raised Apple's target price from US$230 to US$256.