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Text｜Mouyu

"Catching Dolls" grossed over 150 million yuan on its first day of screening.

It is hard to imagine that the two words "preview" and "150 million" would one day be listed together, but when you see that the leading actors are "Shen Teng" and "Ma Li", it seems understandable.

Previously, Mouyu had analyzed the domestic cinema box office market after the blockbuster era and the IP era. When there was no universally recognized indicator of the quality of a film as a reference,The influence of personal IP has become a key indicator of the market。

The most influential among them is undoubtedly the man with the special marketing term "Teng content", Shen Teng.

After the preview of "Catch the Dolls", the box office of "Silent Killer", which had grossed over 700 million yuan in 10 days, was immediately put on the brakes, and the box office fell short of the forecast for the first time. As of 15:00-16:00 on July 15, the preview box office of "Catch the Dolls" had reached 419 million yuan, and it is expected that the box office will reach about 500 million yuan before the release on July 16.

Let's do the math.This means that before "Catching Dolls" was officially launched, it had already achieved the total box office results of another small hit in the summer season, "There is a Small Shop at the Edge of the Cloud".

This miracle of previews has a lot to do with the support of theater chains.The cinema has given this movie, which is still being screened, a 30% higher screening schedule than all other cinema movies.This distribution method is naturally unfair to other films, especially "Legend", which Bona tried to rescue. It has completely lost the hope of making a profit.

But for cinema chains, this is also a helpless move. The overall box office in 2024 has been fluctuating, with the highest Spring Festival and Qingming Festival in film history, and the total box office results in the first half of the year were lower than those in 2016. In June, when the summer season is about to begin, the cinema market is even more sluggish, with the results for that month only higher than those in 2021 and 2022 during the epidemic.

The chaos in cinemas in 2024 will require the stability of "Catching Dolls".

Refer to the box office history of the 2022 and 2023 summer theater seasons.

According to the data from Lighthouse Professional Edition, the total box office of the 2022 summer season was 9.136 billion yuan, of which "The Moon Walks Alone" and "Life Events" took the lead, and the box office performance of the two films accounted for more than 50% of the total box office performance;

The total box office of the 2023 summer season is 20.63 billion, thanks to multi-core competition. The box office performances of "All or Nothing", "Gone with the Wind", "The First Part of the Gods", "In the Octagon", and "30,000 Miles of Chang'an" accounted for 17.1%/17.1%, 12%, 10.7%, and 8.7% of the total box office performance respectively.

It is not difficult to see from the box office distribution that the box office performance of core films has become the main support for the total box office performance of the summer season, forming a"Multiple heads far exceeded expectations, and the waist stabilized the overall situation"Structure,

In addition, judging from the growth trend of summer box office in the past two years, most of the peak box office periods have"The market's enthusiasm for watching movies has been ignited by the top movies"experience (2022's "Life Events", 2023's "Her").

Under these two factors, the appearance of "Catching Dolls" has become particularly important to the overall performance of this summer's movie season. It can be said that it has grasped the lifeblood of the summer season. But the key is how long can "Catching Dolls" remain popular?

According to the discussion between Mouyujun and many practitioners in the industry, we tend to believe thatIt is highly unlikely that "Catch the Doll" will be like last year's summer blockbuster "Gone Girl" or "All or Nothing", which will continue to attract new topics throughout the summer.. However, it will usher in even more amazing box office results in the short term after its official launch, and may even surpass the previous two in terms of total box office.

This conclusion is mainly due to the quality of the film so far and its topicality.

First of all, in addition to the "Shen Ma combination" and the return of directors Yan Fei and Peng Damo, "Catching Dolls" is alsoThis is currently the film with the best reputation produced by Happy Twist after "Charlotte's Troubles".On Douban, "Catching Dolls" scored 7.5 points, second only to "Charlotte's Troubles" with 7.9 points.

The high reputation will effectively drive the audience attendance rate of "Catch the Doll". Film critic Tao Yun believes that in the current economic downturn, the market will have a higher demand for comedy films.

"Although Happy Twist was criticized for 'Super Family' last year, the audience still has high expectations for Happy Twist. The high reputation of 'Catch the Dolls' will help these fans quickly enter the market."

This is another reason why "Catching Dolls" has difficulty in achieving the goal of being a runner-up in the summer season.Unlike last year's realistic films, it is necessary to constantly use topics to stimulate the audience to go to the theater to find out.After confirming the high reputation of Happy Twist’s movies, most of the interested audiences will finish watching the movies within the first two weeks.

At the same time, the marketing characteristics of "Catching Dolls" are also worth noting. Compared with the hot box office, the marketing of the film is surprisingly quiet. Currently, there are only 9 materials released on the entire network. Before the preview starts, the spoilers of the core content of the movie are extremely limited.

Mouyujun believes that on the one hand, the project team has high confidence in the quality of the film itself, but on the other hand, it is also related to the fact that "Catching Dolls" is still in the preview stage, and it is not appropriate to make a big fuss and arouse public anger when it has already occupied a large number of theaters' screenings.

At present, the film has not actively participated in or led the hot search topics on social platforms such as Weibo.Most of the current hot searches about movies come from third-party interpretations of movies., such as #Han Han talks about the movie "Claw Dolls"#, #One sentence proves that you have seen "Claw Dolls"#, etc. It is expected that after the film is released on July 16, it will enter the formal promotion stage.

According to Mouyujun's movie-watching experience on Saturday, the movie "Catching Dolls" is difficult to be conceptualized. Whether it is compared with "The Truman Show" or "Starting Line", it will lead to misunderstandings of the content of the movie among potential audiences, forming counter-effective propaganda.

However, the theme of the movie, "A rich family pretends to be poor to educate their son", still has a strong story tension and can effectively attract the audience.From the end of July to August, domestic college entrance examination admission notices will be issued one after another.The release will be able to create a good topic, which will promptly continue the film's popularity after the huge success in the first two weeks and attract more non-core audiences to the theaters to watch the film.

But after entering mid-August, the box office market needs to consider the issue of succession. At present, it seems that Chen Sicheng is likely to take on the burden of rescuing the market in August. As previously analyzed by Eye Entertainment, Chen Sicheng has a different audience base from Shen Teng, and the market's trust comes more from his past resume and ability to direct commercial films. At present, his new film "Decryption" has aroused the curiosity of the market due to the topic of Liu Haoran's baldness.

Another work that may bring unexpected surprises is Xu Zheng's new film "Reverse Life". The popularity of "Catching Dolls" has already shown the current market's expectations for comedy movies.Whether Xu Zheng can accurately grasp the preferences of contemporary audiences has become the key to the box office success of "Reverse Life".

In fact, according to Xu Zheng's resume, the "Lost on Journey" series he represents was once a golden signboard for domestic comedies, and his new work has the potential to become another hit comedy in this summer's movie season. However, with Feng Xiaogang's "If You Are the One 3" failing, the final outcome of "Reverse Life" is still ambiguous.

And for Happy Twist, the success of "Catching Dolls" is already destined. From the perspective of long-term development, a bigger surprise is that Happy Twist seems to have been intentionally creating a movie concept of "Xihong City Universe". In addition to the fact that the director has brought in a large number of supporting actors and familiar faces who have participated in the two movies "The Richest Man in Xihong City" and "Charlotte's Troubles" in this movie, there have also been many tributes in the plot, which made the audience smile knowingly. From the "Dongmei Bridge" that flashed by, to the movie, Shen Teng needed to pick up plastic bottles with his children because of "poor upbringing", and found a place with the most plastic bottles-the scene where the Daxiang team where Wang Duoyu from "The Richest Man in Xihong City" was losing, and he also patted a player with an afro with "Wang DY" written on his back. Finally, in the name of the heroine,Dongmei from "Charlotte's Troubles", Xiazhu from "The Richest Man in Xihong City", and Chunlan from "Catching Dolls"The new universe concept will greatly increase the box office of Happy Twist's subsequent films, and we also look forward to their new work "Qiu Ju's Lawsuit" (Don't Take It Seriously).