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Source: CCTV Finance

On the afternoon of the 13th local time, former US President Trump encountered an assassination attempt while delivering a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. A gunman fired several shots at Trump's rally podium, killing one audience member and seriously injuring two. The gunman was shot dead on the spot. The incident is currently being investigated as an assassination case.

Reuters reported that market analysts pointed out that after the shooting, the proportion of bets on Trump winning the US presidential election increased, and it is expected that the US dollar index and US Treasury yields will continue to rise next week. According to reports, the difference between the US 2-year and 30-year Treasury yields has narrowed from negative 30 basis points during the first debate between Biden and Trump to negative 6 basis points. As of the close of the 12th, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes in the US stock market both hit record highs.

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At a critical moment, Musk opened his wallet to Trump

According to a July 12 report by Global Times citing foreign media, American billionaire Elon Musk has donated to America PAC, a super PAC dedicated to helping Donald Trump win the White House. People familiar with the matter revealed that it is not clear how much Musk donated, but the amount is considerable. The next time the PAC will publish a list of donors is July 15.

Earlier this year, Musk also said on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter): "I want to be very clear that I will not donate to any presidential candidate in the United States." But now the world's richest man has opened his wallet and made himself a Republican donor. In the last US election, Musk voted for Biden. What motivated him to change his support to Trump at this critical moment, and what impact will it have on the US election?

Biden and Musk have long been at odds

Musk had dealt with Biden when he was vice president of the Obama administration, but Musk had a general opinion of Biden. He once told his biographer: "When Biden was vice president, I had lunch with him in San Francisco, and he... was like one of those dolls. You pull the string and it will say the same few thoughtless words over and over again."

But after Biden came to power, Musk expressed his support for the green energy policy he introduced. However, the relationship between the two soon deteriorated. On August 5, 2021, less than seven months after taking office, Biden held an electric vehicle summit at the White House, inviting leaders from GM, Ford, Stellantis and the United Auto Workers Union to attend, but not Musk.

The White House explained that Musk was not invited to attend because he opposed the union, which aroused Musk's strong dissatisfaction.

On January 27, 2022, Biden posted another video of himself and GM CEO Mary Barra on social media X, and wrote: "When I say the future will be created in the United States, I mean it. Companies like GM and Ford are producing more electric vehicles in the United States than ever before."

This incident completely angered Musk, and he sent a special tweet, blasting "Biden is a human-shaped wet sock puppet." He also left a message in response to the netizen's tweet saying that Biden is "treating the American public like fools."

In August 2022, the Biden administration introduced the Inflation Reduction Act, which included provisions on electric vehicle subsidies that new energy vehicles can receive tax credits, but the prerequisite is that the cars must be assembled by union workers in North America. For this reason, most of the cars produced by Tesla are completely excluded.

Soon, Musk changed his original position of supporting the Biden administration and publicly called on voters to support the Republican Party in the US midterm elections. Biden did not back down and announced one day after the midterm elections that he would consider whether to conduct a security review of Musk's business transactions, including the Twitter acquisition plan and SpaceX's "Starlink" Internet service, due to national security concerns.

Since then, Musk has been involved in regulatory and legal battles with the Biden administration and judicial institutions. According to statistics, by March this year, there had been as many as 11 such battles. It can be said that the relationship between Musk and Biden is difficult to turn around.

Trump extends an olive branch in a timely manner

In March of this year, as the US election entered the sprint stage, Trump, who had an estranged relationship with Musk, promptly extended an olive branch to Musk.

In 2017, Musk quit his part-time positions on three White House committees because Trump withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement. Musk also said that Trump was a "liar" and "a little crazy."

But Trump's flexible turn on some issues gradually changed Musk's view. Trump was originally an opponent of cryptocurrency, but this year, in order to obtain campaign donations from cryptocurrency, Trump changed his position and declared himself a "friend of cryptocurrency." Musk calls himself the "Godfather of Dogecoin" and has always supported cryptocurrency.

In addition, Musk is also very welcome to Trump's tax cut policy for wealthy Americans. In 2017, Trump launched the largest tax cut policy since the Reagan era, and Musk has never been shy about saying that he wants to get a huge salary.

In 2018, Tesla's compensation package for Musk was as high as $56 billion, but it was declared invalid by the Delaware court. In April this year, Tesla once again proposed a $56 billion compensation package for Musk. Trump and the Republican Party's traditional friendly attitude towards the wealthy has also brought Trump and Musk closer.

On March 3 this year, Trump held a secret meeting with Musk and other Republican donors at Mar-a-Lago. Later, there was news that if Trump came to power again, he would appoint Musk as a policy advisor. It is estimated that Musk had already planned to donate to Trump at that time.

The impact on the election cannot be ignored

At this critical moment, with Musk's net worth of $200 billion and his influence in the American business community and social media, his donation to Trump will inevitably have a demonstration effect on the Democratic Party's donors.

On July 5, the Leadership Now Project, a business organization composed of top American business leaders, issued a statement calling on Biden to withdraw from the election "for the sake of American democracy and the future." The statement has been signed by at least 168 people, including major donors to the Democratic Party.

Recently, LinkedIn co-founder and billionaire Hoffman and others have told the Democratic super PAC "Future Forward" that they will shelve up to $90 million in donations if Biden continues to run.

George Clooney, a Hollywood star and well-known supporter of the Democratic Party, has also repeatedly called on Biden to withdraw from the race. Clooney said, "This is not only my opinion, but also the opinion of every member of Congress and governor I have contacted privately."

Currently, Trump has surpassed Biden in fundraising. If Musk fully supports Trump, Trump's financial advantage will be greatly expanded.

This advantage will not only translate into greater propaganda and grassroots mobilization advantages for the Republican Party, but will also translate into a sense of defeat within the Democratic Party. Whether this sentiment will become a new variable in the US election will be revealed at the Democratic National Convention on August 19.

Written by Xu Lifan (columnist)