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the a-share market was closed during the national day holiday. overseas etfs tracking a-shares continued to be popular. the crazy influx of funds triggered a surge in related etfs!

chinese etfs in multiple markets such as japanese stocks, u.s. stocks, and hong kong stocks have all achieved surges. looking at the three major markets, the average increase of etfs tracking the csi 300 was 20.52%, and the average increase of the etfs tracking the science and technology 50 etf reached 64%. during the holidays, ah brokerage stocks rose by more than 90% on average.

the southern china securities 500 index etf listed in japan has the strongest growth. it closed up 89.29% on the 7th. during the holidays, it rose by 2021.06% in total, and the price increased more than 20 times!

at the same time, hong kong stock etfs tracking the a-share index were also snapped up. etfs tracking the science and technology 50 and csi 300 surged, with the former rising by an average of 64% and the latter by about 20%.

among them, bosera science and technology rose by more than 30% today, and the cumulative increase since october 2 has expanded to 124.27%; bosera science and technology 50-r followed closely, with a cumulative increase of more than 100%.

almost all of the 150 stocks listed on ah stocks rose during the holidays, with only cosco shipping holdings falling. in the ranking of gains, brokerage stocks were "far ahead", with china merchants securities soaring 180% cumulatively, shenwan hongyuan and citic securities also achieving gains of about 100%, and the average increase in ah brokerage stocks during the holidays reached 93%.

the performance of etfs in the u.s. stock market is not inferior either. the csi 300 china a-share etf (ashr) has risen by more than 13% in the past five trading days, and the china small and medium enterprise board gem etf-vaneck (cnxt) has risen by more than 20%.

according to statistics, in the week before the holiday (september 23 to september 27), the asset size of many chinese concept stock etfs such as kweb, fxi, and mchi surged, and the net inflows of funds were the highest in nearly a year and even in the past three years. new high.

it is worth mentioning that as china's etfs are rising strongly, a "china dragon etf" (drag) that tracks the performance of large chinese companies and benchmarks the "seven technology giants" of the u.s. stock market was launched on the u.s. stock market on october 3. "china dragon" "the etf closed at $25.630 last week, with a cumulative increase of 2.55% in two trading days.

accelerate “betting on china”

there are currently various signs that overseas hedge funds are accelerating their "betting on china." yan zhaojun, a strategic analyst at zhongtai international, said that against the backdrop of the closure of a-shares and southbound stock connect, the surge in volume in the hong kong stock market perfectly reflects the fear of missing out for foreign capital and local funds in hong kong. the characteristics of the disease coming in one after another.

previously, hedge fund tycoon david tepper publicly "said" to buy everything in china. he said he would increase the allocation ratio of chinese assets and has purchased more "everything" about china after the u.s. interest rate cut, such as etfs, futures, etc.

fredrik bjelland, portfolio manager at emerging markets fund skagen kon-tiki, said the rebound still has a long way to go and china's valuations are attractive. additionally, global investor positioning is low compared to history.

at the same time, many foreign investment institutions are optimistic about the rising prospects of chinese assets. among them, nomura securities recently raised its year-end forecast for the msci china index by 10%.

citi issued a research report, reaffirming its positive view on the chinese market, raising its target for the hang seng index by 24% to 26,000 points by the end of june 2025, and setting the target for the end of 2025 at 28,000 points. based on citi’s expectations for the csi 300 and msci china index next year the target price for the first half of the year was raised by 84 points to 4,600 points, and the target price for the end of next year was raised to 4,900 points.

holiday surge, preview of tomorrow?

some analysts believe that this may be a preview of the trend after the opening of a-shares. the surge in the market reflects expectations and expectations for fiscal policy stimulus. morgan stanley issued a research report saying that if china announces more support measures in the next few weeks, , china's stock market may rise further by 10% to 15%, and expectations of further increasing fiscal expansion are back on the table.

morgan stanley further stated that after the central government introduced a series of economic stimulus measures, foreign capital poured into the chinese stock market in large quantities at the end of september, mainly driven by the inflow of us$6 billion from passive funds, while active funds had an inflow of us$6 billion from september 25 to october. inflows during the 2nd period were relatively mild, only about us$300 million; axj active funds reduced their holdings in china the most, followed by global and emerging market active funds.

attached table: overview of the performance of ah stocks in hong kong during the holidays