2024-10-07
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on october 4, lin yuan was invited to guotai junan's live broadcast room and chatted about stock investment for an hour and a half. it should be said that some of his views are of reference significance.
ba bangzhu has refined and organized some of the wonderful conversations between lin yuan and the host for investors’ reference:
moderator: a-shares are currently rising across the board. what factors are driving this trend now?
lin yuan: the most important factor is that the market is undervalued and very cheap. this factor accounts for 90%. the second factor is policy. the market has changed from focusing on financing in the past to focusing on investment and returns. there is also the need for an active and rising stock market in terms of the country's macroeconomics.
host: data during the national day period shows that the number of people opening accounts at many brokerages has increased dramatically. what do you think of this phenomenon? will there be many new investors entering the market after the holiday?
lin yuan: the market is still very cheap now. most people in the market are still losing money. there is still great hope for a bull market, so naturally more people will open accounts. this market has not been open for ten years, and it has been open for ten years. it is very normal for the number of people to open accounts to increase sharply now. people who open accounts now are very sensible and have not gone crazy yet. when half of the people in this market make money, it will truly start.
moderator: in the current market environment, which market industries or sectors do you think have investment value?
lin yuan: there are opportunities in all sectors in the short term. what is important now is whether you intervene or not. we only invest in some big ones, mainly in the csi 300 and sse 50. in the medium and long term, we are only optimistic about the aging population, which is still a demographic issues.
host: in terms of stock selection, what are the factors you value most when selecting stocks? how do you identify companies with long-term investments?
lin yuan: for a long time, it has been related to the elderly, such as food and medicine. many of the short- and medium-term markets are undervalued and can be invested in. in terms of growth, we mainly focus on the middle-aged and elderly markets. there is also the option of buying assets, those with low price-to-book ratios and high dividend payouts.
host: what do you think of the real estate industry?
lin yuan: in the past, many large real estate companies went bankrupt. we participated, but the proportion of participation was very small. there are still variables in the industry.
moderator: what is the logic of this opportunity?
lin yuan: the logic is that the valuation is low, and cheapness is the last word.
host: if the market opens sharply after the holidays, should investors chase it or not?
lin yuan: if it were us, we would still actively participate, but if you are short, then i don’t know. i feel it, this is my last chance in life, i feel it. now gjd is also losing money, so we can just follow it.
host: how can investors stay calm and rational when the market is volatile?
lin yuan: i can't give you any advice on this, and it's useless if i give it. i'm just normal if things go down or up, and it doesn't matter. some people are not good at it, and it is difficult to achieve a psychological balance. this is still a problem of human nature. the capital market is about making money and seizing opportunities.
moderator: some investors are worried that the increase during this period will be too large, and that there will be great adjustment pressure in the market later.
lin yuan: this is just saying it in vain, it has no meaning. everyone knows that if it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise. whoever wants to say this in front of me, i spit on him, needless to say this at all, it will not solve the problem. if you don't participate, there is no risk, just go to the bank. we have always participated, and even though we have a full warehouse in it, i, lao lin, have not been left in poverty.
host: the hong kong stock market has been going up quite well during the holidays. which sectors are you optimistic about in the hong kong stock market?
lin yuan: hong kong stocks are similar to a-shares. compared with a-shares, hong kong stocks have a more obvious valuation advantage. these days, i am not idle either. i have been operating, and lao lin and i are also chasing highs.
host: the securities market has been very good during this period. what do you think of it?
lin yuan: this is normal. if the market is good, the performance of securities companies will also be good. if the market is good, securities companies will generally increase by seven or eight times.
host: you are very optimistic about mouth-related companies. can you talk about the logic behind it?
lin yuan: production capacity has been expanding for so many years. the demographic dividend is no longer there, and things related to the mouth will be overproduced, but it will be corrected faster. food and medicine have a shelf life. in the past 100 years, mouth-related companies generated 70% of the profits of the entire industry.
host: in the consumer sector, liquor has also rebounded. what do you think?
lin yuan: we are still firmly optimistic about the liquor sector.
moderator: can you share a case of successful investment in the consumer sector?
lin yuan: in terms of industry judgment, we have not made any mistakes. it will not work if we choose the wrong industry. specifically, it involves individual stocks, so i won’t go into details.
host: the trading volume on september 30th reached a record high. what do you think?
lin yuan: i believe there will be greater transaction volume. it’s still early. savings deposits have doubled compared to ten years ago. there is more money.
host: the market has surged across the board, but many investors are still losing money. do investors need to take advantage of the market’s surge to adjust their strategies now?
lin yuan: there is no need to adjust the strategy. if the market is good, there will be opportunities.
host: how do you view the economic situation at home and abroad? is there anything investors should pay attention to regarding the macroeconomic situation?
lin yuan: there is no problem with the domestic economy. the rmb is not freely convertible and our liabilities are very small. but there are still problems with the macroeconomics, and entrepreneurs are not making money, but this will still change.
moderator: can we now determine the expectations of a long-term bull?
lin yuan: i won’t make any judgments. we must consider the worst possible outcome. but judging from market trends, capital involvement, and everyone's enthusiasm, we are looking at long-term bull growth, and it is not surprising to see long-term bull growth in ten or eight years.
host: with the market soaring, what risks will individual investors ignore?
lin yuan: regarding the fundamentals of a company, value investing means putting corporate value first at all times.
host: what do you think about the pharmaceutical industry?
lin yuan: i am underestimating it now, but i am firmly optimistic.
host: what do you think about medicine, chinese medicine and western medicine?
lin yuan: we all invest in traditional chinese medicine, maybe 70%, and western medicine 30%. the reason why we are more optimistic about traditional chinese medicine is that traditional chinese medicine is more suitable for the elderly, and the elderly believe in traditional chinese medicine more.
host: judging from the current market situation, which type of investment style is more attractive, dividend stocks or growth stocks?
lin yuan: they are all included in our group, which makes the group more resilient.
moderator: some investors asked whether they should add some leverage at this point?
lin yuan: i don’t use leverage. i am now 61 years old. i suggest investors never use leverage.
host: can you share your investment philosophy? from an investment philosophy perspective, what do you think is the most successful factor in investment?
lin yuan: this is not just investment. i am successful in everything i do. this is something in my genes. since i was a child, i have always inquired about anything i didn’t know. i am curious.
moderator: should individual investors’ positions be relatively dispersed or relatively concentrated?
lin yuan: our early positions were relatively concentrated, but today our positions are relatively dispersed. based on my source of wealth, i can make a lot of money through concentration. 90% of my wealth comes from concentration.
the above is some of the content that "folk stock god" lin yuan talked about when he was a guest at guotai junan's live broadcast room on october 4. they may not all be correct, but they should always be of some reference. everyone can discard the false and retain the true, and just take the essence and discard the dross!